American Woodmark Stock Price Prediction

AMWD Stock  USD 89.19  2.43  2.65%   
At the present time, The relative strength index (RSI) of American Woodmark's share price is at 55. This suggests that the stock is in nutural position, most likellhy at or near its resistance level. The main idea of RSI analysis is to track how fast people are buying or selling American Woodmark, making its price go up or down.

Oversold Vs Overbought

55

 
Oversold
 
Overbought
The successful prediction of American Woodmark's future price could yield a significant profit. Please, note that this module is not intended to be used solely to calculate an intrinsic value of American Woodmark and does not consider all of the tangible or intangible factors available from American Woodmark's fundamental data. We analyze noise-free headlines and recent hype associated with American Woodmark, which may create opportunities for some arbitrage if properly timed. Below are the key fundamental drivers impacting American Woodmark's stock price prediction:
Quarterly Earnings Growth
(0.17)
EPS Estimate Current Year
8.6
EPS Estimate Next Year
9.1
Wall Street Target Price
113.5
EPS Estimate Current Quarter
2.365
Using American Woodmark hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of American Woodmark from the perspective of American Woodmark response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors.

American Woodmark Hype to Price Pattern

Investor biases related to American Woodmark's public news can be used to forecast risks associated with an investment in American. The trend in average sentiment can be used to explain how an investor holding American can time the market purely based on public headlines and social activities around American Woodmark. Please note that most equities that are difficult to arbitrage are affected by market sentiment the most.
Some investors profit by finding stocks that are overvalued or undervalued based on market sentiment. The correlation of American Woodmark's market sentiment to its price can help taders to make decisions based on the overall investors consensus about American Woodmark.
The fear of missing out, i.e., FOMO, can cause potential investors in American Woodmark to buy its stock at a price that has no basis in reality. In that case, they are not buying American because the equity is a good investment, but because they need to do something to avoid the feeling of missing out. On the other hand, investors will often sell stocks at prices well below their value during bear markets because they need to stop feeling the pain of losing money.

American Woodmark after-hype prediction price

    
  USD 89.23  
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
  
Check out American Woodmark Basic Forecasting Models to cross-verify your projections.
For information on how to trade American Stock refer to our How to Trade American Stock guide.
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of American Woodmark's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowRealHigh
82.8585.3398.11
Details
3 Analysts
Consensus
LowTargetHigh
72.5079.6788.43
Details
Earnings
Estimates (0)
LowProjected EPSHigh
1.261.571.39
Details

American Woodmark After-Hype Price Prediction Density Analysis

As far as predicting the price of American Woodmark at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in American Woodmark or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of American Woodmark, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
   Next price density   
       Expected price to next headline  

American Woodmark Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility

In the context of predicting American Woodmark's stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on American Woodmark's historical news coverage. American Woodmark's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 86.75 and 91.71, respectively. We have considered American Woodmark's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
89.19
89.23
After-hype Price
91.71
Upside
American Woodmark is very steady at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of American Woodmark is based on 3 months time horizon.

American Woodmark Stock Price Prediction Analysis

Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as American Woodmark is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading American Woodmark backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with American Woodmark, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
Expected ReturnPeriod VolatilityHype ElasticityRelated ElasticityNews DensityRelated DensityExpected Hype
  0.02 
2.48
  0.04 
  0.01 
8 Events / Month
6 Events / Month
In about 8 days
Latest traded priceExpected after-news pricePotential return on next major newsAverage after-hype volatility
89.19
89.23
0.04 
140.91  
Notes

American Woodmark Hype Timeline

American Woodmark is presently traded for 89.19. The entity has historical hype elasticity of 0.04, and average elasticity to hype of competition of 0.01. American is anticipated to increase in value after the next headline, with the price projected to jump to 89.23 or above. The average volatility of media hype impact on the company the price is about 140.91%. The price growth on the next news is projected to be 0.04%, whereas the daily expected return is presently at 0.02%. The volatility of related hype on American Woodmark is about 794.31%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 89.20. The company reported the previous year's revenue of 1.85 B. Net Income was 116.22 M with profit before overhead, payroll, taxes, and interest of 226.44 M. Given the investment horizon of 90 days the next anticipated press release will be in about 8 days.
Check out American Woodmark Basic Forecasting Models to cross-verify your projections.
For information on how to trade American Stock refer to our How to Trade American Stock guide.

American Woodmark Related Hype Analysis

Having access to credible news sources related to American Woodmark's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict American Woodmark's future price movements. Getting to know how American Woodmark's peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how American Woodmark may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
Hype
Elasticity
News
Density
Semi
Deviation
Information
Ratio
Potential
Upside
Value
At Risk
Maximum
Drawdown
KBALKimball International(0.07)10 per month 0.00  0.11  1.08 (0.89) 87.83 
LZBLa Z Boy Incorporated(2.21)7 per month 1.57  0.02  3.19 (2.08) 9.21 
NTZNatuzzi SpA 0.00 7 per month 3.63  0.03  8.75 (5.44) 30.87 
MHKMohawk Industries 5.68 9 per month 0.00 (0.10) 2.70 (2.77) 18.13 
MBCMasterBrand(1.95)9 per month 1.88  0.02  4.01 (3.18) 9.66 
BSETBassett Furniture Industries 0.04 9 per month 1.52  0.06  3.24 (2.70) 9.61 
FLXSFlexsteel Industries 0.27 10 per month 1.61  0.12  5.14 (3.40) 33.56 
HBBHamilton Beach Brands 1.15 7 per month 0.00 (0.14) 4.37 (4.98) 29.81 
ETDEthan Allen Interiors(0.10)9 per month 0.00 (0.07) 2.96 (3.43) 10.65 

American Woodmark Additional Predictive Modules

Most predictive techniques to examine American price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for American using various technical indicators. When you analyze American charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.

About American Woodmark Predictive Indicators

The successful prediction of American Woodmark stock price could yield a significant profit to investors. But is it possible? The efficient-market hypothesis suggests that all published stock prices of traded companies, such as American Woodmark, already reflect all publicly available information. This academic statement is a fundamental principle of many financial and investing theories used today. However, the typical investor usually disagrees with a 'textbook' version of this hypothesis and continually tries to find mispriced stocks to increase returns. We use internally-developed statistical techniques to arrive at the intrinsic value of American Woodmark based on analysis of American Woodmark hews, social hype, general headline patterns, and widely used predictive technical indicators.
We also calculate exposure to American Woodmark's market risk, different technical and fundamental indicators, relevant financial multiples and ratios, and then comparing them to American Woodmark's related companies.
 2023 2024 (projected)
Dividend Yield0.0044830.006281
Price To Sales Ratio0.811.11

Story Coverage note for American Woodmark

The number of cover stories for American Woodmark depends on current market conditions and American Woodmark's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that American Woodmark is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about American Woodmark's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.

American Woodmark Short Properties

American Woodmark's future price predictability will typically decrease when American Woodmark's long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of American Woodmark often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential American Woodmark's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. American Woodmark's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
Common Stock Shares Outstanding16.3 M
Cash And Short Term Investments87.4 M

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When running American Woodmark's price analysis, check to measure American Woodmark's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy American Woodmark is operating at the current time. Most of American Woodmark's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of American Woodmark's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move American Woodmark's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of American Woodmark to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
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