Alcon Ag Stock Price Prediction
| ALC Stock | USD 91.11 1.81 2.03% |
Momentum 53
Impartial
Oversold | Overbought |
Quarterly Earnings Growth (0.34) | EPS Estimate Next Quarter 0.78 | EPS Estimate Current Year 3.2178 | EPS Estimate Next Year 3.8152 | Wall Street Target Price 100.3667 |
Using Alcon AG hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Alcon AG from the perspective of Alcon AG response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors. We also analyze overall investor sentiment towards Alcon AG using Alcon AG's stock options and short interest. It helps to benchmark the overall future attitude of investors towards Alcon using crowd psychology based on the activity and movement of Alcon AG's stock price.
Alcon AG Short Interest
A significant increase or decrease in Alcon AG's short interest from the previous month could be a good indicator of investor sentiment towards Alcon. Short interest can provide insight into the potential direction of Alcon AG stock and how bullish or bearish investors feel about the market overall.
200 Day MA 90.8236 | Short Percent 0.0152 | Short Ratio 4.09 | Shares Short Prior Month 3.1 M | 50 Day MA 87.3944 |
Alcon AG Hype to Price Pattern
Investor biases related to Alcon AG's public news can be used to forecast risks associated with an investment in Alcon. The trend in average sentiment can be used to explain how an investor holding Alcon can time the market purely based on public headlines and social activities around Alcon AG. Please note that most equities that are difficult to arbitrage are affected by market sentiment the most.
Some investors profit by finding stocks that are overvalued or undervalued based on market sentiment. The correlation of Alcon AG's market sentiment to its price can help taders to make decisions based on the overall investors consensus about Alcon AG.
Alcon AG Implied Volatility | 0.36 |
Alcon AG's implied volatility exposes the market's sentiment of Alcon AG stock's possible movements over time. However, it does not forecast the overall direction of its price. In a nutshell, if Alcon AG's implied volatility is high, the market thinks the stock has potential for high price swings in either direction. On the other hand, the low implied volatility suggests that Alcon AG stock will not fluctuate a lot when Alcon AG's options are near their expiration.
The fear of missing out, i.e., FOMO, can cause potential investors in Alcon AG to buy its stock at a price that has no basis in reality. In that case, they are not buying Alcon because the equity is a good investment, but because they need to do something to avoid the feeling of missing out. On the other hand, investors will often sell stocks at prices well below their value during bear markets because they need to stop feeling the pain of losing money.
Alcon AG after-hype prediction price | USD 91.11 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Prediction based on Rule 16 of the current Alcon contract
Based on the Rule 16, the options market is currently suggesting that Alcon AG will have an average daily up or down price movement of about 0.0225% per day over the life of the 2025-05-16 option contract. With Alcon AG trading at USD 91.11, that is roughly USD 0.0205 . If you think that the market is fully incorporating Alcon AG's daily price movement you should consider acquiring Alcon AG options at the current volatility level of 0.36%. But if you have an opposite viewpoint you should avoid it and even consider selling them.
Alcon |
Alcon AG After-Hype Price Prediction Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of Alcon AG at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in Alcon AG or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of Alcon AG, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
Alcon AG Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting Alcon AG's stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on Alcon AG's historical news coverage. Alcon AG's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 89.82 and 92.40, respectively. We have considered Alcon AG's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
Alcon AG is very steady at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of Alcon AG is based on 3 months time horizon.
Alcon AG Stock Price Prediction Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as Alcon AG is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Alcon AG backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Alcon AG, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.05 | 1.25 | 0.00 | 0.19 | 11 Events / Month | 10 Events / Month | In about 11 days |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | ||
91.11 | 91.11 | 0.00 |
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Alcon AG Hype Timeline
On the 27th of February Alcon AG is traded for 91.11. The entity stock is not elastic to its hype. The average elasticity to hype of competition is -0.19. Alcon is expected not to react to the next headline, with the price staying at about the same level, and average media hype impact volatility is over 100%. The immediate return on the next news is expected to be very small, whereas the daily expected return is presently at 0.05%. %. The volatility of related hype on Alcon AG is about 32.63%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 90.92. About 69.0% of the company shares are held by institutions such as insurance companies. The book value of Alcon AG was presently reported as 43.57. The company last dividend was issued on the 14th of May 2024. Alcon AG had 2:1 split on the June 16, 2011. Considering the 90-day investment horizon the next expected press release will be in about 11 days. Check out Alcon AG Basic Forecasting Models to cross-verify your projections.Alcon AG Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to Alcon AG's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Alcon AG's future price movements. Getting to know how Alcon AG's peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how Alcon AG may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| TFX | Teleflex Incorporated | (1.07) | 12 per month | 0.00 | (0.1) | 1.93 | (2.85) | 5.63 | |
| WST | West Pharmaceutical Services | (44.73) | 8 per month | 0.00 | (0.07) | 3.56 | (2.68) | 42.43 | |
| RMD | ResMed Inc | (4.92) | 7 per month | 0.00 | (0) | 2.37 | (2.62) | 11.67 | |
| ICUI | ICU Medical | (0.75) | 9 per month | 0.00 | (0.07) | 3.10 | (3.61) | 7.92 | |
| COO | The Cooper Companies, | 0.08 | 8 per month | 0.00 | (0.09) | 1.83 | (2.38) | 8.19 | |
| ANGO | AngioDynamics | (0.05) | 9 per month | 2.39 | 0.12 | 4.31 | (3.94) | 46.09 | |
| ATR | AptarGroup | 0.73 | 11 per month | 0.00 | (0.13) | 1.41 | (1.87) | 10.88 | |
| BLFS | BioLife Solutions | 0.18 | 7 per month | 2.20 | 0.08 | 4.52 | (3.69) | 18.49 | |
| HAE | Haemonetics | 1.35 | 11 per month | 0.00 | (0.16) | 3.40 | (4.20) | 15.77 | |
| MMSI | Merit Medical Systems | (0.12) | 10 per month | 0.00 | (0.02) | 2.03 | (2.21) | 7.16 | |
| NVST | Envista Holdings Corp | (0.68) | 9 per month | 2.35 | 0.01 | 3.63 | (4.09) | 11.51 | |
| EMBC | Embecta Corp | 0.43 | 8 per month | 0.00 | (0) | 3.11 | (5.40) | 37.84 | |
| BAX | Baxter International | (0.25) | 8 per month | 1.44 | 0.08 | 3.11 | (2.46) | 7.36 |
Alcon AG Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine Alcon price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Alcon using various technical indicators. When you analyze Alcon charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
About Alcon AG Predictive Indicators
The successful prediction of Alcon AG stock price could yield a significant profit to investors. But is it possible? The efficient-market hypothesis suggests that all published stock prices of traded companies, such as Alcon AG, already reflect all publicly available information. This academic statement is a fundamental principle of many financial and investing theories used today. However, the typical investor usually disagrees with a 'textbook' version of this hypothesis and continually tries to find mispriced stocks to increase returns. We use internally-developed statistical techniques to arrive at the intrinsic value of Alcon AG based on analysis of Alcon AG hews, social hype, general headline patterns, and widely used predictive technical indicators.
We also calculate exposure to Alcon AG's market risk, different technical and fundamental indicators, relevant financial multiples and ratios, and then comparing them to Alcon AG's related companies. | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 (projected) | Dividend Yield | 0.003066 | 0.003012 | 0.002711 | 0.001959 | Price To Sales Ratio | 3.86 | 4.07 | 3.67 | 3.4 |
Story Coverage note for Alcon AG
The number of cover stories for Alcon AG depends on current market conditions and Alcon AG's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that Alcon AG is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about Alcon AG's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
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Alcon AG Short Properties
Alcon AG's future price predictability will typically decrease when Alcon AG's long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of Alcon AG often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential Alcon AG's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Alcon AG's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 494.6 M |
Complementary Tools for Alcon Stock analysis
When running Alcon AG's price analysis, check to measure Alcon AG's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Alcon AG is operating at the current time. Most of Alcon AG's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Alcon AG's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Alcon AG's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Alcon AG to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
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