American Airlines Group Stock Price Prediction
| AAL Stock | USD 14.64 0.28 1.88% |
Oversold Vs Overbought
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Oversold | Overbought |
Quarterly Earnings Growth (0.46) | EPS Estimate Next Quarter 0.29 | EPS Estimate Current Year 1.476 | EPS Estimate Next Year 2.0495 | Wall Street Target Price 14.4332 |
Using American Airlines hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of American Airlines Group from the perspective of American Airlines response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors. We also analyze overall investor sentiment towards American Airlines using American Airlines' stock options and short interest. It helps to benchmark the overall future attitude of investors towards American using crowd psychology based on the activity and movement of American Airlines' stock price.
American Airlines Short Interest
An investor who is long American Airlines may also wish to track short interest. As short interest increases, investors should be becoming more worried about American Airlines and may potentially protect profits, hedge American Airlines with its derivative instruments, or be ready for some potential downside.
200 Day MA 12.5851 | Short Percent 0.1149 | Short Ratio 1.94 | Shares Short Prior Month 81.9 M | 50 Day MA 12.7086 |
American Airlines Hype to Price Pattern
Investor biases related to American Airlines' public news can be used to forecast risks associated with an investment in American. The trend in average sentiment can be used to explain how an investor holding American can time the market purely based on public headlines and social activities around American Airlines Group. Please note that most equities that are difficult to arbitrage are affected by market sentiment the most.
Some investors profit by finding stocks that are overvalued or undervalued based on market sentiment. The correlation of American Airlines' market sentiment to its price can help taders to make decisions based on the overall investors consensus about American Airlines.
American Airlines Implied Volatility | 2.57 |
American Airlines' implied volatility exposes the market's sentiment of American Airlines Group stock's possible movements over time. However, it does not forecast the overall direction of its price. In a nutshell, if American Airlines' implied volatility is high, the market thinks the stock has potential for high price swings in either direction. On the other hand, the low implied volatility suggests that American Airlines stock will not fluctuate a lot when American Airlines' options are near their expiration.
The fear of missing out, i.e., FOMO, can cause potential investors in American Airlines to buy its stock at a price that has no basis in reality. In that case, they are not buying American because the equity is a good investment, but because they need to do something to avoid the feeling of missing out. On the other hand, investors will often sell stocks at prices well below their value during bear markets because they need to stop feeling the pain of losing money.
American Airlines after-hype prediction price | USD 14.87 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Prediction based on Rule 16 of the current American contract
Based on the Rule 16, the options market is currently suggesting that American Airlines Group will have an average daily up or down price movement of about 0.16% per day over the life of the 2024-11-29 option contract. With American Airlines trading at USD 14.64, that is roughly USD 0.0235 . If you think that the market is fully incorporating American Airlines' daily price movement you should consider acquiring American Airlines Group options at the current volatility level of 2.57%. But if you have an opposite viewpoint you should avoid it and even consider selling them.
American |
American Airlines After-Hype Price Prediction Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of American Airlines at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in American Airlines or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of American Airlines, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
American Airlines Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting American Airlines' stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on American Airlines' historical news coverage. American Airlines' after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 12.47 and 17.27, respectively. We have considered American Airlines' daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
American Airlines is not too volatile at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of American Airlines is based on 3 months time horizon.
American Airlines Stock Price Prediction Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as American Airlines is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading American Airlines backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with American Airlines, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.54 | 2.41 | 0.22 | 0.18 | 9 Events / Month | 2 Events / Month | In about 9 days |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | ||
14.64 | 14.87 | 1.57 |
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American Airlines Hype Timeline
On the 28th of November American Airlines is traded for 14.64. The entity has historical hype elasticity of 0.22, and average elasticity to hype of competition of -0.18. American is forecasted to increase in value after the next headline, with the price projected to jump to 14.87 or above. The average volatility of media hype impact on the company the price is over 100%. The price upswing on the next news is projected to be 1.57%, whereas the daily expected return is presently at 0.54%. The volatility of related hype on American Airlines is about 703.65%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 14.46. The company reported the last year's revenue of 52.79 B. Total Income to common stockholders was 822 M with profit before taxes, overhead, and interest of 11.44 B. Considering the 90-day investment horizon the next forecasted press release will be in about 9 days. Check out American Airlines Basic Forecasting Models to cross-verify your projections.American Airlines Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to American Airlines' direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict American Airlines' future price movements. Getting to know how American Airlines' peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how American Airlines may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| JBLU | JetBlue Airways Corp | (0.33) | 8 per month | 4.09 | 0.06 | 7.53 | (6.73) | 31.32 | |
| SKYW | SkyWest | (1.03) | 10 per month | 0.80 | 0.27 | 3.80 | (1.66) | 9.51 | |
| BABWF | International Consolidated Airlines | 0.00 | 0 per month | 3.66 | 0.1 | 10.53 | (7.93) | 34.52 | |
| SAVE | Spirit Airlines | (0.01) | 8 per month | 0.00 | (0.11) | 15.29 | (21.43) | 112.38 |
American Airlines Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine American price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for American using various technical indicators. When you analyze American charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
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| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
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| Volume Indicators |
About American Airlines Predictive Indicators
The successful prediction of American Airlines stock price could yield a significant profit to investors. But is it possible? The efficient-market hypothesis suggests that all published stock prices of traded companies, such as American Airlines Group, already reflect all publicly available information. This academic statement is a fundamental principle of many financial and investing theories used today. However, the typical investor usually disagrees with a 'textbook' version of this hypothesis and continually tries to find mispriced stocks to increase returns. We use internally-developed statistical techniques to arrive at the intrinsic value of American Airlines based on analysis of American Airlines hews, social hype, general headline patterns, and widely used predictive technical indicators.
We also calculate exposure to American Airlines's market risk, different technical and fundamental indicators, relevant financial multiples and ratios, and then comparing them to American Airlines's related companies. | 2020 | 2021 | 2024 (projected) | Dividend Yield | 0.005635 | 0.43 | 0.56 | Price To Sales Ratio | 0.44 | 0.39 | 0.14 |
Story Coverage note for American Airlines
The number of cover stories for American Airlines depends on current market conditions and American Airlines' risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that American Airlines is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about American Airlines' long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
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American Airlines Short Properties
American Airlines' future price predictability will typically decrease when American Airlines' long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of American Airlines Group often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential American Airlines' investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. American Airlines' indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 719.7 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 8.4 B |
Check out American Airlines Basic Forecasting Models to cross-verify your projections. You can also try the Portfolio Rebalancing module to analyze risk-adjusted returns against different time horizons to find asset-allocation targets.
Is Passenger Airlines space expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of American Airlines. If investors know American will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about American Airlines listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth (0.46) | Earnings Share 0.42 | Revenue Per Share 81.697 | Quarterly Revenue Growth 0.012 | Return On Assets 0.0275 |
The market value of American Airlines is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of American that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of American Airlines' value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is American Airlines' true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because American Airlines' market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect American Airlines' underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between American Airlines' value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if American Airlines is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, American Airlines' price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.