ZTO EXPRESS (Germany) Market Value
| ZTOB Stock | EUR 18.80 0.10 0.53% |
| Symbol | ZTO |
ZTO EXPRESS 'What if' Analysis
In the world of financial modeling, what-if analysis is part of sensitivity analysis performed to test how changes in assumptions impact individual outputs in a model. When applied to ZTO EXPRESS's stock what-if analysis refers to the analyzing how the change in your past investing horizon will affect the profitability against the current market value of ZTO EXPRESS.
| 12/30/2023 |
| 12/24/2024 |
If you would invest 0.00 in ZTO EXPRESS on December 30, 2023 and sell it all today you would earn a total of 0.00 from holding ZTO EXPRESS or generate 0.0% return on investment in ZTO EXPRESS over 360 days. ZTO EXPRESS is related to or competes with Kuehne Nagel, NIKKON HOLDINGS, SENKO GROUP, NTG Nordic, SINGAPORE POST, and SUPER GROUP. ZTO Express Inc. provides express delivery and other value-added logistics services in the Peoples Republic of China More
ZTO EXPRESS Upside/Downside Indicators
Understanding different market momentum indicators often help investors to time their next move. Potential upside and downside technical ratios enable traders to measure ZTO EXPRESS's stock current market value against overall market sentiment and can be a good tool during both bulling and bearish trends. Here we outline some of the essential indicators to assess ZTO EXPRESS upside and downside potential and time the market with a certain degree of confidence.
| Downside Deviation | 3.51 | |||
| Information Ratio | (0.01) | |||
| Maximum Drawdown | 21.96 | |||
| Value At Risk | (4.50) | |||
| Potential Upside | 6.25 |
ZTO EXPRESS Market Risk Indicators
Today, many novice investors tend to focus exclusively on investment returns with little concern for ZTO EXPRESS's investment risk. Other traders do consider volatility but use just one or two very conventional indicators such as ZTO EXPRESS's standard deviation. In reality, there are many statistical measures that can use ZTO EXPRESS historical prices to predict the future ZTO EXPRESS's volatility.| Risk Adjusted Performance | 0.0085 | |||
| Jensen Alpha | (0.02) | |||
| Total Risk Alpha | (0.11) | |||
| Sortino Ratio | (0.01) | |||
| Treynor Ratio | (0.01) |
ZTO EXPRESS Backtested Returns
At this point, ZTO EXPRESS is not too volatile. ZTO EXPRESS shows Sharpe Ratio of 0.0042, which attests that the company had a 0.0042% return per unit of standard deviation over the last 3 months. We have found twenty-nine technical indicators for ZTO EXPRESS, which you can use to evaluate the volatility of the company. Please check out ZTO EXPRESS's Risk Adjusted Performance of 0.0085, mean deviation of 2.4, and Downside Deviation of 3.51 to validate if the risk estimate we provide is consistent with the expected return of 0.014%. The firm maintains a market beta of 0.53, which attests to possible diversification benefits within a given portfolio. As returns on the market increase, ZTO EXPRESS's returns are expected to increase less than the market. However, during the bear market, the loss of holding ZTO EXPRESS is expected to be smaller as well. ZTO EXPRESS presently maintains a risk of 3.36%. Please check out ZTO EXPRESS maximum drawdown, potential upside, and the relationship between the treynor ratio and value at risk , to decide if ZTO EXPRESS will be following its historical returns.
Auto-correlation | 0.42 |
Average predictability
ZTO EXPRESS has average predictability. Overlapping area represents the amount of predictability between ZTO EXPRESS time series from 30th of December 2023 to 27th of June 2024 and 27th of June 2024 to 24th of December 2024. The more autocorrelation exist between current time interval and its lagged values, the more accurately you can make projection about the future pattern of ZTO EXPRESS price movement. The serial correlation of 0.42 indicates that just about 42.0% of current ZTO EXPRESS price fluctuation can be explain by its past prices.
| Correlation Coefficient | 0.42 | |
| Spearman Rank Test | 0.41 | |
| Residual Average | 0.0 | |
| Price Variance | 3.84 |
ZTO EXPRESS lagged returns against current returns
Autocorrelation, which is ZTO EXPRESS stock's lagged correlation, explains the relationship between observations of its time series of returns over different periods of time. The observations are said to be independent if autocorrelation is zero. Autocorrelation is calculated as a function of mean and variance and can have practical application in predicting ZTO EXPRESS's stock expected returns. We can calculate the autocorrelation of ZTO EXPRESS returns to help us make a trade decision. For example, suppose you find that ZTO EXPRESS has exhibited high autocorrelation historically, and you observe that the stock is moving up for the past few days. In that case, you can expect the price movement to match the lagging time series.
Current and Lagged Values |
| Timeline |
ZTO EXPRESS regressed lagged prices vs. current prices
Serial correlation can be approximated by using the Durbin-Watson (DW) test. The correlation can be either positive or negative. If ZTO EXPRESS stock is displaying a positive serial correlation, investors will expect a positive pattern to continue. However, if ZTO EXPRESS stock is observed to have a negative serial correlation, investors will generally project negative sentiment on having a locked-in long position in ZTO EXPRESS stock over time.
Current vs Lagged Prices |
| Timeline |
ZTO EXPRESS Lagged Returns
When evaluating ZTO EXPRESS's market value, investors can use the concept of autocorrelation to see how much of an impact past prices of ZTO EXPRESS stock have on its future price. ZTO EXPRESS autocorrelation represents the degree of similarity between a given time horizon and a lagged version of the same horizon over the previous time interval. In other words, ZTO EXPRESS autocorrelation shows the relationship between ZTO EXPRESS stock current value and its past values and can show if there is a momentum factor associated with investing in ZTO EXPRESS.
Regressed Prices |
| Timeline |
Currently Active Assets on Macroaxis
Additional Information and Resources on Investing in ZTO Stock
When determining whether ZTO EXPRESS offers a strong return on investment in its stock, a comprehensive analysis is essential. The process typically begins with a thorough review of ZTO EXPRESS's financial statements, including income statements, balance sheets, and cash flow statements, to assess its financial health. Key financial ratios are used to gauge profitability, efficiency, and growth potential of Zto Express Stock. Outlined below are crucial reports that will aid in making a well-informed decision on Zto Express Stock:Check out ZTO EXPRESS Correlation, ZTO EXPRESS Volatility and ZTO EXPRESS Alpha and Beta module to complement your research on ZTO EXPRESS. For more detail on how to invest in ZTO Stock please use our How to Invest in ZTO EXPRESS guide.You can also try the Fundamental Analysis module to view fundamental data based on most recent published financial statements.
ZTO EXPRESS technical stock analysis exercises models and trading practices based on price and volume transformations, such as the moving averages, relative strength index, regressions, price and return correlations, business cycles, stock market cycles, or different charting patterns.