Universal Insurance (Pakistan) Market Value
| UVIC Stock | 11.85 0.86 7.83% |
| Symbol | Universal |
Universal Insurance 'What if' Analysis
In the world of financial modeling, what-if analysis is part of sensitivity analysis performed to test how changes in assumptions impact individual outputs in a model. When applied to Universal Insurance's stock what-if analysis refers to the analyzing how the change in your past investing horizon will affect the profitability against the current market value of Universal Insurance.
| 07/01/2024 |
| 12/28/2024 |
If you would invest 0.00 in Universal Insurance on July 1, 2024 and sell it all today you would earn a total of 0.00 from holding Universal Insurance or generate 0.0% return on investment in Universal Insurance over 180 days. Universal Insurance is related to or competes with Mari Petroleum, Media Times, Artistic Denim, Gatron Industries, Habib Sugar, Ghani Gases, and Bank of Punjab. More
Universal Insurance Upside/Downside Indicators
Understanding different market momentum indicators often help investors to time their next move. Potential upside and downside technical ratios enable traders to measure Universal Insurance's stock current market value against overall market sentiment and can be a good tool during both bulling and bearish trends. Here we outline some of the essential indicators to assess Universal Insurance upside and downside potential and time the market with a certain degree of confidence.
| Downside Deviation | 5.98 | |||
| Information Ratio | 0.1334 | |||
| Maximum Drawdown | 27.75 | |||
| Value At Risk | (8.03) | |||
| Potential Upside | 9.75 |
Universal Insurance Market Risk Indicators
Today, many novice investors tend to focus exclusively on investment returns with little concern for Universal Insurance's investment risk. Other traders do consider volatility but use just one or two very conventional indicators such as Universal Insurance's standard deviation. In reality, there are many statistical measures that can use Universal Insurance historical prices to predict the future Universal Insurance's volatility.| Risk Adjusted Performance | 0.1197 | |||
| Jensen Alpha | 0.742 | |||
| Total Risk Alpha | 0.5829 | |||
| Sortino Ratio | 0.1186 | |||
| Treynor Ratio | (1.43) |
Universal Insurance Backtested Returns
Universal Insurance appears to be slightly risky, given 3 months investment horizon. Universal Insurance owns Efficiency Ratio (i.e., Sharpe Ratio) of 0.16, which indicates the firm had a 0.16% return per unit of risk over the last 3 months. By inspecting Universal Insurance's technical indicators, you can evaluate if the expected return of 0.75% is justified by implied risk. Please review Universal Insurance's Risk Adjusted Performance of 0.1197, coefficient of variation of 716.96, and Semi Deviation of 4.14 to confirm if our risk estimates are consistent with your expectations. On a scale of 0 to 100, Universal Insurance holds a performance score of 12. The entity has a beta of -0.51, which indicates possible diversification benefits within a given portfolio. As returns on the market increase, returns on owning Universal Insurance are expected to decrease at a much lower rate. During the bear market, Universal Insurance is likely to outperform the market. Please check Universal Insurance's total risk alpha, treynor ratio, and the relationship between the jensen alpha and sortino ratio , to make a quick decision on whether Universal Insurance's existing price patterns will revert.
Auto-correlation | -0.03 |
Very weak reverse predictability
Universal Insurance has very weak reverse predictability. Overlapping area represents the amount of predictability between Universal Insurance time series from 1st of July 2024 to 29th of September 2024 and 29th of September 2024 to 28th of December 2024. The more autocorrelation exist between current time interval and its lagged values, the more accurately you can make projection about the future pattern of Universal Insurance price movement. The serial correlation of -0.03 indicates that only 3.0% of current Universal Insurance price fluctuation can be explain by its past prices.
| Correlation Coefficient | -0.03 | |
| Spearman Rank Test | 0.16 | |
| Residual Average | 0.0 | |
| Price Variance | 2.8 |
Universal Insurance lagged returns against current returns
Autocorrelation, which is Universal Insurance stock's lagged correlation, explains the relationship between observations of its time series of returns over different periods of time. The observations are said to be independent if autocorrelation is zero. Autocorrelation is calculated as a function of mean and variance and can have practical application in predicting Universal Insurance's stock expected returns. We can calculate the autocorrelation of Universal Insurance returns to help us make a trade decision. For example, suppose you find that Universal Insurance has exhibited high autocorrelation historically, and you observe that the stock is moving up for the past few days. In that case, you can expect the price movement to match the lagging time series.
Current and Lagged Values |
| Timeline |
Universal Insurance regressed lagged prices vs. current prices
Serial correlation can be approximated by using the Durbin-Watson (DW) test. The correlation can be either positive or negative. If Universal Insurance stock is displaying a positive serial correlation, investors will expect a positive pattern to continue. However, if Universal Insurance stock is observed to have a negative serial correlation, investors will generally project negative sentiment on having a locked-in long position in Universal Insurance stock over time.
Current vs Lagged Prices |
| Timeline |
Universal Insurance Lagged Returns
When evaluating Universal Insurance's market value, investors can use the concept of autocorrelation to see how much of an impact past prices of Universal Insurance stock have on its future price. Universal Insurance autocorrelation represents the degree of similarity between a given time horizon and a lagged version of the same horizon over the previous time interval. In other words, Universal Insurance autocorrelation shows the relationship between Universal Insurance stock current value and its past values and can show if there is a momentum factor associated with investing in Universal Insurance.
Regressed Prices |
| Timeline |
Pair Trading with Universal Insurance
One of the main advantages of trading using pair correlations is that every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if Universal Insurance position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Pair trading also minimizes risk from directional movements in the market. For example, if an entire industry or sector drops because of unexpected headlines, the short position in Universal Insurance will appreciate offsetting losses from the drop in the long position's value.Moving together with Universal Stock
| 0.93 | FFL | Fauji Foods | PairCorr |
| 0.83 | KSBP | KSB Pumps | PairCorr |
| 0.77 | MARI | Mari Petroleum | PairCorr |
| 0.91 | LOADS | Loads | PairCorr |
The ability to find closely correlated positions to Universal Insurance could be a great tool in your tax-loss harvesting strategies, allowing investors a quick way to find a similar-enough asset to replace Universal Insurance when you sell it. If you don't do this, your portfolio allocation will be skewed against your target asset allocation. So, investors can't just sell and buy back Universal Insurance - that would be a violation of the tax code under the "wash sale" rule, and this is why you need to find a similar enough asset and use the proceeds from selling Universal Insurance to buy it.
The correlation of Universal Insurance is a statistical measure of how it moves in relation to other instruments. This measure is expressed in what is known as the correlation coefficient, which ranges between -1 and +1. A perfect positive correlation (i.e., a correlation coefficient of +1) implies that as Universal Insurance moves, either up or down, the other security will move in the same direction. Alternatively, perfect negative correlation means that if Universal Insurance moves in either direction, the perfectly negatively correlated security will move in the opposite direction. If the correlation is 0, the equities are not correlated; they are entirely random. A correlation greater than 0.8 is generally described as strong, whereas a correlation less than 0.5 is generally considered weak.
Correlation analysis and pair trading evaluation for Universal Insurance can also be used as hedging techniques within a particular sector or industry or even over random equities to generate a better risk-adjusted return on your portfolios.Other Information on Investing in Universal Stock
Universal Insurance financial ratios help investors to determine whether Universal Stock is cheap or expensive when compared to a particular measure, such as profits or enterprise value. In other words, they help investors to determine the cost of investment in Universal with respect to the benefits of owning Universal Insurance security.