Old Second Bancorp Stock Market Value
| OSBC Stock | USD 18.60 0.13 0.69% |
| Symbol | Old |
Old Second Bancorp Price To Book Ratio
Is Regional Banks space expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Old Second. If investors know Old will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Old Second listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth (0.07) | Dividend Share 0.2 | Earnings Share 1.85 | Revenue Per Share 5.896 | Quarterly Revenue Growth (0.01) |
The market value of Old Second Bancorp is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Old that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Old Second's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Old Second's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Old Second's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Old Second's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Old Second's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Old Second is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Old Second's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.
Old Second 'What if' Analysis
In the world of financial modeling, what-if analysis is part of sensitivity analysis performed to test how changes in assumptions impact individual outputs in a model. When applied to Old Second's stock what-if analysis refers to the analyzing how the change in your past investing horizon will affect the profitability against the current market value of Old Second.
| 11/02/2024 |
| 12/02/2024 |
If you would invest 0.00 in Old Second on November 2, 2024 and sell it all today you would earn a total of 0.00 from holding Old Second Bancorp or generate 0.0% return on investment in Old Second over 30 days. Old Second is related to or competes with Ohio Valley, Peoples Bancorp, OceanFirst Financial, QCR Holdings, and Peapack Gladstone. Old Second Bancorp, Inc. operates as the bank holding company for Old Second National Bank that provides community banki... More
Old Second Upside/Downside Indicators
Understanding different market momentum indicators often help investors to time their next move. Potential upside and downside technical ratios enable traders to measure Old Second's stock current market value against overall market sentiment and can be a good tool during both bulling and bearish trends. Here we outline some of the essential indicators to assess Old Second Bancorp upside and downside potential and time the market with a certain degree of confidence.
| Downside Deviation | 2.01 | |||
| Information Ratio | 0.0194 | |||
| Maximum Drawdown | 13.47 | |||
| Value At Risk | (3.15) | |||
| Potential Upside | 2.65 |
Old Second Market Risk Indicators
Today, many novice investors tend to focus exclusively on investment returns with little concern for Old Second's investment risk. Other traders do consider volatility but use just one or two very conventional indicators such as Old Second's standard deviation. In reality, there are many statistical measures that can use Old Second historical prices to predict the future Old Second's volatility.| Risk Adjusted Performance | 0.0703 | |||
| Jensen Alpha | (0.06) | |||
| Total Risk Alpha | (0.19) | |||
| Sortino Ratio | 0.0207 | |||
| Treynor Ratio | 0.0943 |
Old Second Bancorp Backtested Returns
At this point, Old Second is not too volatile. Old Second Bancorp maintains Sharpe Ratio (i.e., Efficiency) of 0.0777, which implies the firm had a 0.0777% return per unit of risk over the last 3 months. We have found twenty-nine technical indicators for Old Second Bancorp, which you can use to evaluate the volatility of the company. Please check Old Second's Coefficient Of Variation of 1196.06, semi deviation of 1.89, and Risk Adjusted Performance of 0.0703 to confirm if the risk estimate we provide is consistent with the expected return of 0.17%. Old Second has a performance score of 6 on a scale of 0 to 100. The company holds a Beta of 1.8, which implies a somewhat significant risk relative to the market. As the market goes up, the company is expected to outperform it. However, if the market returns are negative, Old Second will likely underperform. Old Second Bancorp right now holds a risk of 2.18%. Please check Old Second Bancorp maximum drawdown, skewness, and the relationship between the total risk alpha and downside variance , to decide if Old Second Bancorp will be following its historical price patterns.
Auto-correlation | 0.76 |
Good predictability
Old Second Bancorp has good predictability. Overlapping area represents the amount of predictability between Old Second time series from 2nd of November 2024 to 17th of November 2024 and 17th of November 2024 to 2nd of December 2024. The more autocorrelation exist between current time interval and its lagged values, the more accurately you can make projection about the future pattern of Old Second Bancorp price movement. The serial correlation of 0.76 indicates that around 76.0% of current Old Second price fluctuation can be explain by its past prices.
| Correlation Coefficient | 0.76 | |
| Spearman Rank Test | 0.68 | |
| Residual Average | 0.0 | |
| Price Variance | 0.04 |
Old Second Bancorp lagged returns against current returns
Autocorrelation, which is Old Second stock's lagged correlation, explains the relationship between observations of its time series of returns over different periods of time. The observations are said to be independent if autocorrelation is zero. Autocorrelation is calculated as a function of mean and variance and can have practical application in predicting Old Second's stock expected returns. We can calculate the autocorrelation of Old Second returns to help us make a trade decision. For example, suppose you find that Old Second has exhibited high autocorrelation historically, and you observe that the stock is moving up for the past few days. In that case, you can expect the price movement to match the lagging time series.
Current and Lagged Values |
| Timeline |
Old Second regressed lagged prices vs. current prices
Serial correlation can be approximated by using the Durbin-Watson (DW) test. The correlation can be either positive or negative. If Old Second stock is displaying a positive serial correlation, investors will expect a positive pattern to continue. However, if Old Second stock is observed to have a negative serial correlation, investors will generally project negative sentiment on having a locked-in long position in Old Second stock over time.
Current vs Lagged Prices |
| Timeline |
Old Second Lagged Returns
When evaluating Old Second's market value, investors can use the concept of autocorrelation to see how much of an impact past prices of Old Second stock have on its future price. Old Second autocorrelation represents the degree of similarity between a given time horizon and a lagged version of the same horizon over the previous time interval. In other words, Old Second autocorrelation shows the relationship between Old Second stock current value and its past values and can show if there is a momentum factor associated with investing in Old Second Bancorp.
Regressed Prices |
| Timeline |
Also Currently Popular
Analyzing currently trending equities could be an opportunity to develop a better portfolio based on different market momentums that they can trigger. Utilizing the top trending stocks is also useful when creating a market-neutral strategy or pair trading technique involving a short or a long position in a currently trending equity.When determining whether Old Second Bancorp offers a strong return on investment in its stock, a comprehensive analysis is essential. The process typically begins with a thorough review of Old Second's financial statements, including income statements, balance sheets, and cash flow statements, to assess its financial health. Key financial ratios are used to gauge profitability, efficiency, and growth potential of Old Second Bancorp Stock. Outlined below are crucial reports that will aid in making a well-informed decision on Old Second Bancorp Stock:Check out Old Second Correlation, Old Second Volatility and Old Second Alpha and Beta module to complement your research on Old Second. You can also try the Watchlist Optimization module to optimize watchlists to build efficient portfolios or rebalance existing positions based on the mean-variance optimization algorithm.
Old Second technical stock analysis exercises models and trading practices based on price and volume transformations, such as the moving averages, relative strength index, regressions, price and return correlations, business cycles, stock market cycles, or different charting patterns.