National Grid (Germany) Market Value
| NNGD Stock | EUR 54.00 1.00 1.82% |
| Symbol | National |
National Grid 'What if' Analysis
In the world of financial modeling, what-if analysis is part of sensitivity analysis performed to test how changes in assumptions impact individual outputs in a model. When applied to National Grid's stock what-if analysis refers to the analyzing how the change in your past investing horizon will affect the profitability against the current market value of National Grid.
| 01/04/2023 |
| 12/24/2024 |
If you would invest 0.00 in National Grid on January 4, 2023 and sell it all today you would earn a total of 0.00 from holding National Grid plc or generate 0.0% return on investment in National Grid over 720 days. National Grid is related to or competes with Iberdrola, Enel SpA, Enel SpA, National Grid, Sempra, ENGIE ADR1. National Grid plc transmits and distributes electricity and natural gas More
National Grid Upside/Downside Indicators
Understanding different market momentum indicators often help investors to time their next move. Potential upside and downside technical ratios enable traders to measure National Grid's stock current market value against overall market sentiment and can be a good tool during both bulling and bearish trends. Here we outline some of the essential indicators to assess National Grid plc upside and downside potential and time the market with a certain degree of confidence.
| Information Ratio | (0.10) | |||
| Maximum Drawdown | 9.92 | |||
| Value At Risk | (2.56) | |||
| Potential Upside | 2.54 |
National Grid Market Risk Indicators
Today, many novice investors tend to focus exclusively on investment returns with little concern for National Grid's investment risk. Other traders do consider volatility but use just one or two very conventional indicators such as National Grid's standard deviation. In reality, there are many statistical measures that can use National Grid historical prices to predict the future National Grid's volatility.| Risk Adjusted Performance | (0.06) | |||
| Jensen Alpha | (0.15) | |||
| Total Risk Alpha | (0.19) | |||
| Treynor Ratio | (0.61) |
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of National Grid's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
National Grid plc Backtested Returns
National Grid plc has Sharpe Ratio of -0.12, which conveys that the firm had a -0.12% return per unit of risk over the last 3 months. National Grid exposes twenty-one different technical indicators, which can help you to evaluate volatility embedded in its price movement. Please verify National Grid's Mean Deviation of 1.21, standard deviation of 1.64, and Risk Adjusted Performance of (0.06) to check out the risk estimate we provide. The company secures a Beta (Market Risk) of 0.23, which conveys not very significant fluctuations relative to the market. As returns on the market increase, National Grid's returns are expected to increase less than the market. However, during the bear market, the loss of holding National Grid is expected to be smaller as well. At this point, National Grid plc has a negative expected return of -0.19%. Please make sure to verify National Grid's skewness, daily balance of power, and the relationship between the potential upside and kurtosis , to decide if National Grid plc performance from the past will be repeated at some point in the near future.
Auto-correlation | -0.21 |
Weak reverse predictability
National Grid plc has weak reverse predictability. Overlapping area represents the amount of predictability between National Grid time series from 4th of January 2023 to 30th of December 2023 and 30th of December 2023 to 24th of December 2024. The more autocorrelation exist between current time interval and its lagged values, the more accurately you can make projection about the future pattern of National Grid plc price movement. The serial correlation of -0.21 indicates that over 21.0% of current National Grid price fluctuation can be explain by its past prices.
| Correlation Coefficient | -0.21 | |
| Spearman Rank Test | 0.22 | |
| Residual Average | 0.0 | |
| Price Variance | 9.35 |
National Grid plc lagged returns against current returns
Autocorrelation, which is National Grid stock's lagged correlation, explains the relationship between observations of its time series of returns over different periods of time. The observations are said to be independent if autocorrelation is zero. Autocorrelation is calculated as a function of mean and variance and can have practical application in predicting National Grid's stock expected returns. We can calculate the autocorrelation of National Grid returns to help us make a trade decision. For example, suppose you find that National Grid has exhibited high autocorrelation historically, and you observe that the stock is moving up for the past few days. In that case, you can expect the price movement to match the lagging time series.
Current and Lagged Values |
| Timeline |
National Grid regressed lagged prices vs. current prices
Serial correlation can be approximated by using the Durbin-Watson (DW) test. The correlation can be either positive or negative. If National Grid stock is displaying a positive serial correlation, investors will expect a positive pattern to continue. However, if National Grid stock is observed to have a negative serial correlation, investors will generally project negative sentiment on having a locked-in long position in National Grid stock over time.
Current vs Lagged Prices |
| Timeline |
National Grid Lagged Returns
When evaluating National Grid's market value, investors can use the concept of autocorrelation to see how much of an impact past prices of National Grid stock have on its future price. National Grid autocorrelation represents the degree of similarity between a given time horizon and a lagged version of the same horizon over the previous time interval. In other words, National Grid autocorrelation shows the relationship between National Grid stock current value and its past values and can show if there is a momentum factor associated with investing in National Grid plc.
Regressed Prices |
| Timeline |
Currently Active Assets on Macroaxis
Additional Information and Resources on Investing in National Stock
When determining whether National Grid plc is a strong investment it is important to analyze National Grid's competitive position within its industry, examining market share, product or service uniqueness, and competitive advantages. Beyond financials and market position, potential investors should also consider broader economic conditions, industry trends, and any regulatory or geopolitical factors that may impact National Grid's future performance. For an informed investment choice regarding National Stock, refer to the following important reports:Check out National Grid Correlation, National Grid Volatility and National Grid Alpha and Beta module to complement your research on National Grid. You can also try the Portfolio Analyzer module to portfolio analysis module that provides access to portfolio diagnostics and optimization engine.
National Grid technical stock analysis exercises models and trading practices based on price and volume transformations, such as the moving averages, relative strength index, regressions, price and return correlations, business cycles, stock market cycles, or different charting patterns.