Gudang Garam (Indonesia) Market Value
| GGRM Stock | IDR 10,400 50.00 0.48% |
| Symbol | Gudang |
Gudang Garam 'What if' Analysis
In the world of financial modeling, what-if analysis is part of sensitivity analysis performed to test how changes in assumptions impact individual outputs in a model. When applied to Gudang Garam's stock what-if analysis refers to the analyzing how the change in your past investing horizon will affect the profitability against the current market value of Gudang Garam.
| 12/16/2024 |
| 03/16/2025 |
If you would invest 0.00 in Gudang Garam on December 16, 2024 and sell it all today you would earn a total of 0.00 from holding Gudang Garam Tbk or generate 0.0% return on investment in Gudang Garam over 90 days. Gudang Garam is related to or competes with Hanjaya Mandala, Unilever Indonesia, PT Indofood, United Tractors, and Astra International. PT Gudang Garam Tbk produces and sells cigarettes in Indonesia and internationally More
Gudang Garam Upside/Downside Indicators
Understanding different market momentum indicators often help investors to time their next move. Potential upside and downside technical ratios enable traders to measure Gudang Garam's stock current market value against overall market sentiment and can be a good tool during both bulling and bearish trends. Here we outline some of the essential indicators to assess Gudang Garam Tbk upside and downside potential and time the market with a certain degree of confidence.
| Information Ratio | (0.18) | |||
| Maximum Drawdown | 7.2 | |||
| Value At Risk | (3.25) | |||
| Potential Upside | 2.52 |
Gudang Garam Market Risk Indicators
Today, many novice investors tend to focus exclusively on investment returns with little concern for Gudang Garam's investment risk. Other traders do consider volatility but use just one or two very conventional indicators such as Gudang Garam's standard deviation. In reality, there are many statistical measures that can use Gudang Garam historical prices to predict the future Gudang Garam's volatility.| Risk Adjusted Performance | (0.21) | |||
| Jensen Alpha | (0.37) | |||
| Total Risk Alpha | (0.19) | |||
| Treynor Ratio | (2.82) |
Gudang Garam Tbk Backtested Returns
Gudang Garam Tbk holds Efficiency (Sharpe) Ratio of -0.25, which attests that the entity had a -0.25 % return per unit of risk over the last 3 months. Gudang Garam Tbk exposes twenty-four different technical indicators, which can help you to evaluate volatility embedded in its price movement. Please check out Gudang Garam's Market Risk Adjusted Performance of (2.81), standard deviation of 1.49, and Risk Adjusted Performance of (0.21) to validate the risk estimate we provide. The company retains a Market Volatility (i.e., Beta) of 0.13, which attests to not very significant fluctuations relative to the market. As returns on the market increase, Gudang Garam's returns are expected to increase less than the market. However, during the bear market, the loss of holding Gudang Garam is expected to be smaller as well. At this point, Gudang Garam Tbk has a negative expected return of -0.37%. Please make sure to check out Gudang Garam's standard deviation, total risk alpha, and the relationship between the coefficient of variation and jensen alpha , to decide if Gudang Garam Tbk performance from the past will be repeated at some point in the near future.
Auto-correlation | 0.23 |
Weak predictability
Gudang Garam Tbk has weak predictability. Overlapping area represents the amount of predictability between Gudang Garam time series from 16th of December 2024 to 30th of January 2025 and 30th of January 2025 to 16th of March 2025. The more autocorrelation exist between current time interval and its lagged values, the more accurately you can make projection about the future pattern of Gudang Garam Tbk price movement. The serial correlation of 0.23 indicates that over 23.0% of current Gudang Garam price fluctuation can be explain by its past prices.
| Correlation Coefficient | 0.23 | |
| Spearman Rank Test | 0.35 | |
| Residual Average | 0.0 | |
| Price Variance | 161.6 K |
Gudang Garam Tbk lagged returns against current returns
Autocorrelation, which is Gudang Garam stock's lagged correlation, explains the relationship between observations of its time series of returns over different periods of time. The observations are said to be independent if autocorrelation is zero. Autocorrelation is calculated as a function of mean and variance and can have practical application in predicting Gudang Garam's stock expected returns. We can calculate the autocorrelation of Gudang Garam returns to help us make a trade decision. For example, suppose you find that Gudang Garam has exhibited high autocorrelation historically, and you observe that the stock is moving up for the past few days. In that case, you can expect the price movement to match the lagging time series.
Current and Lagged Values |
| Timeline |
Gudang Garam regressed lagged prices vs. current prices
Serial correlation can be approximated by using the Durbin-Watson (DW) test. The correlation can be either positive or negative. If Gudang Garam stock is displaying a positive serial correlation, investors will expect a positive pattern to continue. However, if Gudang Garam stock is observed to have a negative serial correlation, investors will generally project negative sentiment on having a locked-in long position in Gudang Garam stock over time.
Current vs Lagged Prices |
| Timeline |
Gudang Garam Lagged Returns
When evaluating Gudang Garam's market value, investors can use the concept of autocorrelation to see how much of an impact past prices of Gudang Garam stock have on its future price. Gudang Garam autocorrelation represents the degree of similarity between a given time horizon and a lagged version of the same horizon over the previous time interval. In other words, Gudang Garam autocorrelation shows the relationship between Gudang Garam stock current value and its past values and can show if there is a momentum factor associated with investing in Gudang Garam Tbk.
Regressed Prices |
| Timeline |
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Gudang Garam financial ratios help investors to determine whether Gudang Stock is cheap or expensive when compared to a particular measure, such as profits or enterprise value. In other words, they help investors to determine the cost of investment in Gudang with respect to the benefits of owning Gudang Garam security.