First Merchants Stock Market Value
| FRME Stock | USD 43.80 0.83 1.93% |
| Symbol | First |
Is Regional Banks space expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of First Merchants. If investors know First will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about First Merchants listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
The market value of First Merchants is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of First that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of First Merchants' value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is First Merchants' true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because First Merchants' market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect First Merchants' underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between First Merchants' value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if First Merchants is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, First Merchants' price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.
First Merchants 'What if' Analysis
In the world of financial modeling, what-if analysis is part of sensitivity analysis performed to test how changes in assumptions impact individual outputs in a model. When applied to First Merchants' stock what-if analysis refers to the analyzing how the change in your past investing horizon will affect the profitability against the current market value of First Merchants.
| 03/13/2023 |
| 03/02/2025 |
If you would invest 0.00 in First Merchants on March 13, 2023 and sell it all today you would earn a total of 0.00 from holding First Merchants or generate 0.0% return on investment in First Merchants over 720 days. First Merchants is related to or competes with Home Bancorp, HomeTrust Bancshares, Great Southern, Finward Bancorp, First Bancorp, Independent Bank, and National Bank. First Merchants Corporation operates as the financial holding company for First Merchants Bank that provides community b... More
First Merchants Upside/Downside Indicators
Understanding different market momentum indicators often help investors to time their next move. Potential upside and downside technical ratios enable traders to measure First Merchants' stock current market value against overall market sentiment and can be a good tool during both bulling and bearish trends. Here we outline some of the essential indicators to assess First Merchants upside and downside potential and time the market with a certain degree of confidence.
| Downside Deviation | 1.66 | |||
| Information Ratio | 0.027 | |||
| Maximum Drawdown | 7.66 | |||
| Value At Risk | (2.01) | |||
| Potential Upside | 2.31 |
First Merchants Market Risk Indicators
Today, many novice investors tend to focus exclusively on investment returns with little concern for First Merchants' investment risk. Other traders do consider volatility but use just one or two very conventional indicators such as First Merchants' standard deviation. In reality, there are many statistical measures that can use First Merchants historical prices to predict the future First Merchants' volatility.| Risk Adjusted Performance | 0.0193 | |||
| Jensen Alpha | 0.0392 | |||
| Total Risk Alpha | 0.0705 | |||
| Sortino Ratio | 0.0261 | |||
| Treynor Ratio | 0.0248 |
First Merchants Backtested Returns
At this point, First Merchants is very steady. First Merchants secures Sharpe Ratio (or Efficiency) of 0.0187, which denotes the company had a 0.0187 % return per unit of risk over the last 3 months. We have found thirty technical indicators for First Merchants, which you can use to evaluate the volatility of the firm. Please confirm First Merchants' Downside Deviation of 1.66, mean deviation of 1.23, and Coefficient Of Variation of 5294.01 to check if the risk estimate we provide is consistent with the expected return of 0.0299%. First Merchants has a performance score of 1 on a scale of 0 to 100. The firm shows a Beta (market volatility) of 0.82, which means possible diversification benefits within a given portfolio. As returns on the market increase, First Merchants' returns are expected to increase less than the market. However, during the bear market, the loss of holding First Merchants is expected to be smaller as well. First Merchants right now shows a risk of 1.59%. Please confirm First Merchants maximum drawdown, accumulation distribution, relative strength index, as well as the relationship between the semi variance and day typical price , to decide if First Merchants will be following its price patterns.
Auto-correlation | 0.60 |
Good predictability
First Merchants has good predictability. Overlapping area represents the amount of predictability between First Merchants time series from 13th of March 2023 to 7th of March 2024 and 7th of March 2024 to 2nd of March 2025. The more autocorrelation exist between current time interval and its lagged values, the more accurately you can make projection about the future pattern of First Merchants price movement. The serial correlation of 0.6 indicates that roughly 60.0% of current First Merchants price fluctuation can be explain by its past prices.
| Correlation Coefficient | 0.6 | |
| Spearman Rank Test | 0.42 | |
| Residual Average | 0.0 | |
| Price Variance | 18.02 |
First Merchants lagged returns against current returns
Autocorrelation, which is First Merchants stock's lagged correlation, explains the relationship between observations of its time series of returns over different periods of time. The observations are said to be independent if autocorrelation is zero. Autocorrelation is calculated as a function of mean and variance and can have practical application in predicting First Merchants' stock expected returns. We can calculate the autocorrelation of First Merchants returns to help us make a trade decision. For example, suppose you find that First Merchants has exhibited high autocorrelation historically, and you observe that the stock is moving up for the past few days. In that case, you can expect the price movement to match the lagging time series.
Current and Lagged Values |
| Timeline |
First Merchants regressed lagged prices vs. current prices
Serial correlation can be approximated by using the Durbin-Watson (DW) test. The correlation can be either positive or negative. If First Merchants stock is displaying a positive serial correlation, investors will expect a positive pattern to continue. However, if First Merchants stock is observed to have a negative serial correlation, investors will generally project negative sentiment on having a locked-in long position in First Merchants stock over time.
Current vs Lagged Prices |
| Timeline |
First Merchants Lagged Returns
When evaluating First Merchants' market value, investors can use the concept of autocorrelation to see how much of an impact past prices of First Merchants stock have on its future price. First Merchants autocorrelation represents the degree of similarity between a given time horizon and a lagged version of the same horizon over the previous time interval. In other words, First Merchants autocorrelation shows the relationship between First Merchants stock current value and its past values and can show if there is a momentum factor associated with investing in First Merchants.
Regressed Prices |
| Timeline |
Also Currently Popular
Analyzing currently trending equities could be an opportunity to develop a better portfolio based on different market momentums that they can trigger. Utilizing the top trending stocks is also useful when creating a market-neutral strategy or pair trading technique involving a short or a long position in a currently trending equity.When determining whether First Merchants is a good investment, qualitative aspects like company management, corporate governance, and ethical practices play a significant role. A comparison with peer companies also provides context and helps to understand if First Stock is undervalued or overvalued. This multi-faceted approach, blending both quantitative and qualitative analysis, forms a solid foundation for making an informed investment decision about First Merchants Stock. Highlighted below are key reports to facilitate an investment decision about First Merchants Stock:Check out First Merchants Correlation, First Merchants Volatility and First Merchants Alpha and Beta module to complement your research on First Merchants. For information on how to trade First Stock refer to our How to Trade First Stock guide.You can also try the Equity Search module to search for actively traded equities including funds and ETFs from over 30 global markets.
First Merchants technical stock analysis exercises models and trading practices based on price and volume transformations, such as the moving averages, relative strength index, regressions, price and return correlations, business cycles, stock market cycles, or different charting patterns.