Citra Marga (Indonesia) Market Value
| CMNP Stock | IDR 1,895 115.00 5.72% |
| Symbol | Citra |
Citra Marga 'What if' Analysis
In the world of financial modeling, what-if analysis is part of sensitivity analysis performed to test how changes in assumptions impact individual outputs in a model. When applied to Citra Marga's stock what-if analysis refers to the analyzing how the change in your past investing horizon will affect the profitability against the current market value of Citra Marga.
| 12/16/2024 |
| 03/16/2025 |
If you would invest 0.00 in Citra Marga on December 16, 2024 and sell it all today you would earn a total of 0.00 from holding Citra Marga Nusaphala or generate 0.0% return on investment in Citra Marga over 90 days. Citra Marga is related to or competes with Berlian Laju, Solusi Bangun, Kawasan Industri, Mnc Investama, and Bakrieland Development. PT Citra Marga Nusaphala Persada Tbk, together with its subsidiaries, operates toll roads in Indonesia More
Citra Marga Upside/Downside Indicators
Understanding different market momentum indicators often help investors to time their next move. Potential upside and downside technical ratios enable traders to measure Citra Marga's stock current market value against overall market sentiment and can be a good tool during both bulling and bearish trends. Here we outline some of the essential indicators to assess Citra Marga Nusaphala upside and downside potential and time the market with a certain degree of confidence.
| Downside Deviation | 6.35 | |||
| Information Ratio | 0.1145 | |||
| Maximum Drawdown | 38.64 | |||
| Value At Risk | (9.91) | |||
| Potential Upside | 24.74 |
Citra Marga Market Risk Indicators
Today, many novice investors tend to focus exclusively on investment returns with little concern for Citra Marga's investment risk. Other traders do consider volatility but use just one or two very conventional indicators such as Citra Marga's standard deviation. In reality, there are many statistical measures that can use Citra Marga historical prices to predict the future Citra Marga's volatility.| Risk Adjusted Performance | 0.0979 | |||
| Jensen Alpha | 1.19 | |||
| Total Risk Alpha | 1.82 | |||
| Sortino Ratio | 0.145 | |||
| Treynor Ratio | 0.2324 |
Citra Marga Nusaphala Backtested Returns
Citra Marga appears to be very steady, given 3 months investment horizon. Citra Marga Nusaphala secures Sharpe Ratio (or Efficiency) of 0.1, which signifies that the company had a 0.1 % return per unit of risk over the last 3 months. By analyzing Citra Marga's technical indicators, you can evaluate if the expected return of 0.82% is justified by implied risk. Please makes use of Citra Marga's Risk Adjusted Performance of 0.0979, mean deviation of 4.95, and Downside Deviation of 6.35 to double-check if our risk estimates are consistent with your expectations. On a scale of 0 to 100, Citra Marga holds a performance score of 8. The firm shows a Beta (market volatility) of 3.5, which signifies a somewhat significant risk relative to the market. As the market goes up, the company is expected to outperform it. However, if the market returns are negative, Citra Marga will likely underperform. Please check Citra Marga's total risk alpha, treynor ratio, value at risk, as well as the relationship between the sortino ratio and maximum drawdown , to make a quick decision on whether Citra Marga's price patterns will revert.
Auto-correlation | -0.74 |
Almost perfect reverse predictability
Citra Marga Nusaphala has almost perfect reverse predictability. Overlapping area represents the amount of predictability between Citra Marga time series from 16th of December 2024 to 30th of January 2025 and 30th of January 2025 to 16th of March 2025. The more autocorrelation exist between current time interval and its lagged values, the more accurately you can make projection about the future pattern of Citra Marga Nusaphala price movement. The serial correlation of -0.74 indicates that around 74.0% of current Citra Marga price fluctuation can be explain by its past prices.
| Correlation Coefficient | -0.74 | |
| Spearman Rank Test | -0.78 | |
| Residual Average | 0.0 | |
| Price Variance | 378.3 K |
Citra Marga Nusaphala lagged returns against current returns
Autocorrelation, which is Citra Marga stock's lagged correlation, explains the relationship between observations of its time series of returns over different periods of time. The observations are said to be independent if autocorrelation is zero. Autocorrelation is calculated as a function of mean and variance and can have practical application in predicting Citra Marga's stock expected returns. We can calculate the autocorrelation of Citra Marga returns to help us make a trade decision. For example, suppose you find that Citra Marga has exhibited high autocorrelation historically, and you observe that the stock is moving up for the past few days. In that case, you can expect the price movement to match the lagging time series.
Current and Lagged Values |
| Timeline |
Citra Marga regressed lagged prices vs. current prices
Serial correlation can be approximated by using the Durbin-Watson (DW) test. The correlation can be either positive or negative. If Citra Marga stock is displaying a positive serial correlation, investors will expect a positive pattern to continue. However, if Citra Marga stock is observed to have a negative serial correlation, investors will generally project negative sentiment on having a locked-in long position in Citra Marga stock over time.
Current vs Lagged Prices |
| Timeline |
Citra Marga Lagged Returns
When evaluating Citra Marga's market value, investors can use the concept of autocorrelation to see how much of an impact past prices of Citra Marga stock have on its future price. Citra Marga autocorrelation represents the degree of similarity between a given time horizon and a lagged version of the same horizon over the previous time interval. In other words, Citra Marga autocorrelation shows the relationship between Citra Marga stock current value and its past values and can show if there is a momentum factor associated with investing in Citra Marga Nusaphala.
Regressed Prices |
| Timeline |
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Citra Marga financial ratios help investors to determine whether Citra Stock is cheap or expensive when compared to a particular measure, such as profits or enterprise value. In other words, they help investors to determine the cost of investment in Citra with respect to the benefits of owning Citra Marga security.