Novavax Stock Probability Of Bankruptcy

NVAX Stock

USD 9.00 0.11 1.21%

Novavax's chance of distress is over 60% at this time. It has an above-average odds of going through some form of financial crisis in the next 2 years. Probability of bankruptcy shows the probability of financial torment over the next two years of operations under current economic and market conditions. All items used in analyzing the odds of distress are taken from the Novavax balance sheet, as well as cash flow and income statements available from the company's most recent filings. Check out Novavax Piotroski F Score and Novavax Altman Z Score analysis.

For more information on how to buy Novavax Stock please use our How to Invest in Novavax guide.

Market Cap is likely to drop to about 116.1 M in 2024. Enterprise Value is likely to drop to about 118.8 M in 2024

Novavax Company probability of bankruptcy Analysis

Novavax's Probability Of Bankruptcy is a relative measure of the likelihood of financial distress. For stocks, the Probability Of Bankruptcy is the normalized value of Z-Score. For funds and ETFs, it is derived from a multi-factor model developed by Macroaxis. The score is used to predict the probability of a firm or a fund experiencing financial distress within the next 24 months. Unlike Z-Score, Probability Of Bankruptcy is the value between 0 and 100, indicating the firm's actual probability it will be financially distressed in the next 2 fiscal years.

Probability Of Bankruptcy

Normalized

Z-Score

More About Probability Of Bankruptcy | All Equity Analysis

Current Novavax Probability Of Bankruptcy

Over 63%

Most of Novavax's fundamental indicators, such as Probability Of Bankruptcy, are part of a valuation analysis module that helps investors searching for stocks that are currently trading at higher or lower prices than their real value. If the real value is higher than the market price, Novavax is considered to be undervalued, and we provide a buy recommendation. Otherwise, we render a sell signal.

Our calculation of Novavax probability of bankruptcy is based on Altman Z-Score and Piotroski F-Score, but not limited to these measures. To be applied to a broader range of industries and markets, we use several other techniques to enhance the accuracy of predicting Novavax odds of financial distress. These include financial statement analysis, different types of price predictions, earning estimates, analysis consensus, and basic intrinsic valuation. Please use the options below to get a better understanding of different measures that drive the calculation of Novavax financial health.

Is Biotechnology space expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Novavax. If investors know Novavax will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Novavax listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.

Quarterly Earnings Growth

0.709

Earnings Share

(2.18)

Revenue Per Share

6.186

Quarterly Revenue Growth

(0.55)

Return On Assets

(0.11)

The market value of Novavax is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Novavax that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Novavax's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Novavax's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Novavax's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Novavax's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.

Please note, there is a significant difference between Novavax's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Novavax is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Novavax's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.

Novavax Probability Of Bankruptcy Driver Correlations

Understanding the fundamental principles of building solid financial models for Novavax is extremely important. It helps to project a fair market value of Novavax Stock properly, considering its historical fundamentals such as Probability Of Bankruptcy. Since Novavax's main accounts across its financial reports are all linked and dependent on each other, it is essential to analyze all possible correlations between related accounts. However, instead of reviewing all of Novavax's historical financial statements, investors can examine the correlated drivers to determine its overall health. This can be effectively done using a conventional correlation matrix of Novavax's interrelated accounts and indicators.

	Total Assets	Total Stockholder Equity	Net Debt	Retained Earnings	Accounts Payable	Total Liab	Total Current Assets	Net Receivables	Intangible Assets	Short Term Debt	Common Stock	Long Term Debt	Treasury Stock	Property Plant Equipment	Current Deferred Revenue	Good Will	Short Term Investments	Net Tangible Assets	Long Term Debt Total	Capital Surpluse	Deferred Long Term Liab	Short Long Term Debt	Net Invested Capital	Net Working Capital	Capital Stock
Total Assets		-0.55	-0.89	-0.91	0.93	0.96	0.99	0.88	-0.46	0.63	-0.37	0.33	-0.98	0.87	0.77	0.96	-0.19	-0.62	0.47	0.94	-0.21	0.67	-0.41	-0.61	-0.78
Total Stockholder Equity	-0.55		0.42	0.79	-0.72	-0.76	-0.48	-0.4	0.35	0.0	0.15	-0.19	0.67	-0.74	-0.3	-0.46	0.71	0.99	-0.27	-0.68	0.13	-0.59	0.92	0.93	0.45
Net Debt	-0.89	0.42		0.69	-0.83	-0.83	-0.91	-0.76	0.23	-0.57	0.46	-0.03	0.87	-0.66	-0.85	-0.76	0.23	0.5	-0.18	-0.72	-0.02	-0.35	0.34	0.58	0.58
Retained Earnings	-0.91	0.79	0.69		-0.93	-0.97	-0.85	-0.77	0.5	-0.41	0.28	-0.33	0.95	-0.97	-0.54	-0.89	0.38	0.83	-0.52	-0.98	0.25	-0.79	0.68	0.78	0.77
Accounts Payable	0.93	-0.72	-0.83	-0.93		0.96	0.89	0.68	-0.41	0.6	-0.36	0.17	-0.96	0.93	0.57	0.87	-0.32	-0.77	0.39	0.91	-0.16	0.63	-0.59	-0.82	-0.71
Total Liab	0.96	-0.76	-0.83	-0.97	0.96		0.93	0.82	-0.47	0.49	-0.34	0.32	-0.98	0.93	0.69	0.9	-0.38	-0.81	0.46	0.96	-0.21	0.72	-0.63	-0.78	-0.76
Total Current Assets	0.99	-0.48	-0.91	-0.85	0.89	0.93		0.87	-0.45	0.67	-0.38	0.36	-0.95	0.8	0.83	0.93	-0.16	-0.57	0.47	0.89	-0.21	0.63	-0.32	-0.54	-0.76
Net Receivables	0.88	-0.4	-0.76	-0.77	0.68	0.82	0.87		-0.38	0.35	-0.43	0.31	-0.85	0.74	0.78	0.87	-0.15	-0.45	0.34	0.85	-0.14	0.6	-0.34	-0.36	-0.72
Intangible Assets	-0.46	0.35	0.23	0.5	-0.41	-0.47	-0.45	-0.38		-0.29	0.08	-0.53	0.44	-0.43	-0.29	-0.52	-0.12	0.36	-0.64	-0.53	0.53	-0.59	0.22	0.28	0.49
Short Term Debt	0.63	0.0	-0.57	-0.41	0.6	0.49	0.67	0.35	-0.29		-0.32	0.37	-0.55	0.41	0.42	0.63	0.17	-0.12	0.34	0.48	-0.14	0.42	0.28	-0.12	-0.56
Common Stock	-0.37	0.15	0.46	0.28	-0.36	-0.34	-0.38	-0.43	0.08	-0.32		0.09	0.43	-0.3	-0.33	-0.34	0.22	0.2	0.25	-0.32	-0.27	-0.14	0.05	0.17	0.63
Long Term Debt	0.33	-0.19	-0.03	-0.33	0.17	0.32	0.36	0.31	-0.53	0.37	0.09		-0.24	0.15	0.37	0.36	-0.08	-0.25	0.67	0.35	-0.47	0.68	0.11	0.03	-0.48
Treasury Stock	-0.98	0.67	0.87	0.95	-0.96	-0.98	-0.95	-0.85	0.44	-0.55	0.43	-0.24		-0.93	-0.7	-0.93	0.31	0.73	-0.39	-0.96	0.15	-0.67	0.54	0.72	0.77
Property Plant Equipment	0.87	-0.74	-0.66	-0.97	0.93	0.93	0.8	0.74	-0.43	0.41	-0.3	0.15	-0.93		0.41	0.89	-0.28	-0.75	0.4	0.96	-0.18	0.68	-0.67	-0.76	-0.69
Current Deferred Revenue	0.77	-0.3	-0.85	-0.54	0.57	0.69	0.83	0.78	-0.29	0.42	-0.33	0.37	-0.7	0.41		0.63	-0.23	-0.4	0.31	0.58	-0.12	0.41	-0.17	-0.33	-0.54
Good Will	0.96	-0.46	-0.76	-0.89	0.87	0.9	0.93	0.87	-0.52	0.63	-0.34	0.36	-0.93	0.89	0.63		-0.08	-0.52	0.51	0.96	-0.21	0.73	-0.33	-0.49	-0.81
Short Term Investments	-0.19	0.71	0.23	0.38	-0.32	-0.38	-0.16	-0.15	-0.12	0.17	0.22	-0.08	0.31	-0.28	-0.23	-0.08		0.73	0.25	-0.25	-0.42	-0.34	0.62	0.6	0.25
Net Tangible Assets	-0.62	0.99	0.5	0.83	-0.77	-0.81	-0.57	-0.45	0.36	-0.12	0.2	-0.25	0.73	-0.75	-0.4	-0.52	0.73		-0.29	-0.72	0.11	-0.65	0.86	0.93	0.53
Long Term Debt Total	0.47	-0.27	-0.18	-0.52	0.39	0.46	0.47	0.34	-0.64	0.34	0.25	0.67	-0.39	0.4	0.31	0.51	0.25	-0.29		0.53	-0.82	0.62	-0.15	-0.23	-0.47
Capital Surpluse	0.94	-0.68	-0.72	-0.98	0.91	0.96	0.89	0.85	-0.53	0.48	-0.32	0.35	-0.96	0.96	0.58	0.96	-0.25	-0.72	0.53		-0.26	0.79	-0.57	-0.67	-0.81
Deferred Long Term Liab	-0.21	0.13	-0.02	0.25	-0.16	-0.21	-0.21	-0.14	0.53	-0.14	-0.27	-0.47	0.15	-0.18	-0.12	-0.21	-0.42	0.11	-0.82	-0.26		-0.33	0.07	0.09	0.17
Short Long Term Debt	0.67	-0.59	-0.35	-0.79	0.63	0.72	0.63	0.6	-0.59	0.42	-0.14	0.68	-0.67	0.68	0.41	0.73	-0.34	-0.65	0.62	0.79	-0.33		-0.36	-0.43	-0.77
Net Invested Capital	-0.41	0.92	0.34	0.68	-0.59	-0.63	-0.32	-0.34	0.22	0.28	0.05	0.11	0.54	-0.67	-0.17	-0.33	0.62	0.86	-0.15	-0.57	0.07	-0.36		0.9	0.26
Net Working Capital	-0.61	0.93	0.58	0.78	-0.82	-0.78	-0.54	-0.36	0.28	-0.12	0.17	0.03	0.72	-0.76	-0.33	-0.49	0.6	0.93	-0.23	-0.67	0.09	-0.43	0.9		0.41
Capital Stock	-0.78	0.45	0.58	0.77	-0.71	-0.76	-0.76	-0.72	0.49	-0.56	0.63	-0.48	0.77	-0.69	-0.54	-0.81	0.25	0.53	-0.47	-0.81	0.17	-0.77	0.26	0.41

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The Probability of Bankruptcy SHOULD NOT be confused with the actual chance of a company to file for chapter 7, 11, 12, or 13 bankruptcy protection. Macroaxis simply defines Financial Distress as an operational condition where a company is having difficulty meeting its current financial obligations towards its creditors or delivering on the expectations of its investors. Macroaxis derives these conditions daily from both public financial statements as well as analysis of stock prices reacting to market conditions or economic downturns, including short-term and long-term historical volatility. Other factors taken into account include analysis of liquidity, revenue patterns, R&D expenses, and commitments, as well as public headlines and social sentiment.

Competition

Predict Novavax

Based on the latest financial disclosure, Novavax has a Probability Of Bankruptcy of 63%. This is 45.53% higher than that of the Biotechnology sector and 14.88% higher than that of the Health Care industry. The probability of bankruptcy for all United States stocks is 58.17% lower than that of the firm.

Novavax Probability Of Bankruptcy Peer Comparison

Stock peer comparison is one of the most widely used and accepted methods of equity analyses. It analyses Novavax's direct or indirect competition against its Probability Of Bankruptcy to detect undervalued stocks with similar characteristics or determine the stocks which would be a good addition to a portfolio. Peer analysis of Novavax could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Novavax by comparing valuation metrics of similar companies.

Novavax is currently under evaluation in probability of bankruptcy category among its peers.

Novavax Main Bankruptcy Drivers

	2019	2020	2021	2022	2023	2024 (projected)
Return On Assets	(0.61)	(0.89)	(0.75)	(0.27)	(0.68)	(0.32)
Net Debt	243.1M	(231.4M)	(1.1B)	(787.1M)	(339.4M)	(322.5M)
Total Current Liabilities	25.8M	322.0M	2.4B	2.5B	1.6B	1.7B
Non Current Liabilities Total	333.2M	633.2M	538.1M	432.8M	937.1M	984.0M
Total Assets	173.0M	1.6B	2.6B	2.3B	1.8B	1.9B
Total Current Assets	97.2M	1.2B	2.2B	1.7B	1.1B	1.2B
Total Cash From Operating Activities	(136.6M)	(42.5M)	322.9M	(415.9M)	(714.0M)	(678.3M)

Novavax ESG Sustainability

Some studies have found that companies with high sustainability scores are getting higher valuations than competitors with lower social-engagement activities. While most ESG disclosures are voluntary and do not directly affect the long term financial condition, Novavax's sustainability indicators can be used to identify proper investment strategies using environmental, social, and governance scores that are crucial to Novavax's managers, analysts, and investors.

Environmental

Governance

Social

Novavax Fundamentals

	Return On Equity	-8.98
	Return On Asset	-0.11
	Profit Margin	(0.32) %
	Operating Margin	(1.54) %
	Current Valuation	783.06 M
	Shares Outstanding	160.18 M
	Shares Owned By Insiders	4.37 %
	Shares Owned By Institutions	60.31 %
	Number Of Shares Shorted	39.78 M
	Price To Earning	(1.36) X
	Price To Book	49.52 X
	Price To Sales	1.67 X
	Revenue	983.71 M
	Gross Profit	(156.04 M)
	EBITDA	(487.39 M)
	Net Income	(545.06 M)
	Cash And Equivalents	1.28 B
	Cash Per Share	16.31 X
	Total Debt	229.08 M
	Debt To Equity	8.24 %
	Current Ratio	1.05 X
	Book Value Per Share	(3.29) X
	Cash Flow From Operations	(713.97 M)
	Short Ratio	7.26 X
	Earnings Per Share	(2.18) X
	Target Price	16.0
	Number Of Employees	1.54 K
	Beta	2.09
	Market Capitalization	1.48 B
	Total Asset	1.8 B
	Retained Earnings	(4.82 B)
	Working Capital	(491.25 M)
	Current Asset	287.26 M
	Current Liabilities	76.49 M
	Net Asset	1.8 B

About Novavax Fundamental Analysis

The Macroaxis Fundamental Analysis modules help investors analyze Novavax's financials across various querterly and yearly statements, indicators and fundamental ratios. We help investors to determine the real value of Novavax using virtually all public information available. We use both quantitative as well as qualitative analysis to arrive at the intrinsic value of Novavax based on its fundamental data. In general, a quantitative approach, as applied to this company, focuses on analyzing financial statements comparatively, whereas a qaualitative method uses data that is important to a company's growth but cannot be measured and presented in a numerical way.

Please read more on our fundamental analysis page.

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Additional Tools for Novavax Stock Analysis

When running Novavax's price analysis, check to measure Novavax's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Novavax is operating at the current time. Most of Novavax's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Novavax's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Novavax's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Novavax to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.

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Novavax Stock Probability Of Bankruptcy

Novavax Company probability of bankruptcy Analysis

Probability Of Bankruptcy

Normalized

Z-Score

Current Novavax Probability Of Bankruptcy

Novavax Probability Of Bankruptcy Driver Correlations

Novavax Probability Of Bankruptcy Peer Comparison

Novavax Main Bankruptcy Drivers

Novavax ESG Sustainability

Novavax Fundamentals

About Novavax Fundamental Analysis

Also Currently Popular

Additional Tools for Novavax Stock Analysis

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