Novavax Stock Buy Hold or Sell Recommendation
| NVAX Stock | USD 7.99 0.18 2.20% |
Given the investment horizon of 90 days and your above-average risk tolerance, our recommendation regarding Novavax is 'Hold'. A buy or sell recommendation is an automated directive regarding whether to purchase or sell Novavax given historical horizon and risk tolerance. When we issue a 'buy' or 'sell' recommendation for Novavax, the advice is generated through an automated system that utilizes algorithms and statistical models.
Check out Novavax Analyst Recommendation to compare Macroaxis Buy or Sell Recommendation with the current analyst consensus. To check ratings for multiple equity instruments, please use the Instant Ratings tool. For more information on how to buy Novavax Stock please use our How to Invest in Novavax guide. In addition, we conduct extensive research on individual companies such as Novavax and provide practical buy, sell, or hold advice based on investors' investing horizon and their risk tolerance towards Novavax. Also, note that the market value of any company could be closely tied with the direction of predictive economic indicators such as signals in nation.
Novavax |
Execute Novavax Buy or Sell Advice
The Novavax recommendation should be used to complement the buy-or-sell advice compiled from the current analysts' consensus on Novavax. Macroaxis does not own or have any residual interests in Novavax or other equities on which the buy-or-sell advice is provided. Please provide your input below to execute Novavax's advice using the current market data and latest reported fundamentals.
Time Horizon
Risk Tolerance
 |  |
Hold
Market Performance | Very Weak | Details | |
Volatility | Slightly risky | Details | |
Hype Condition | Under hyped | Details | |
Current Valuation | Undervalued | Details | |
Odds Of Distress | Above Average | Details | |
Economic Sensitivity | Responds to the market | Details | |
Investor Sentiment | Alarmed | Details | |
Analyst Consensus | Buy | Details | |
Financial Strenth (F Score) | Poor | Details | |
Financial Leverage | Not Rated | Details | |
Reporting Quality (M-Score) | Unlikely Manipulator | Details |
Novavax Trading Alerts and Improvement Suggestions
| Novavax generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days | |
| Novavax has high historical volatility and very poor performance | |
| Novavax has high likelihood to experience some financial distress in the next 2 years | |
| The company reported the previous year's revenue of 682.16 M. Net Loss for the year was (187.5 M) with profit before overhead, payroll, taxes, and interest of 112.52 M. | |
| Novavax currently holds about 1.28 B in cash with (87.26 M) of positive cash flow from operations. This results in cash-per-share (CPS) ratio of 16.31, which can makes it an attractive takeover target, given it will continue generating positive cash flow. | |
| Novavax has a poor financial position based on the latest SEC disclosures | |
| Roughly 60.0% of the company shares are owned by institutional investors | |
| Latest headline from simplywall.st: Some Novavax, Inc. Analysts Just Made A Major Cut To Next Years Estimates |
Novavax Returns Distribution Density
The distribution of Novavax's historical returns is an attempt to chart the uncertainty of Novavax's future price movements. The chart of the probability distribution of Novavax daily returns describes the distribution of returns around its average expected value. We use Novavax price's Value At Risk and its Upside Potential as a relative measure of the distribution. The graph of the distribution of Novavax returns is essential to provide solid investment advice for Novavax.
| Mean Return | -0.07 | Value At Risk | -7.26 | Potential Upside | 8.15 | Standard Deviation | 4.49 |
Return Density |
| Distribution |
Investment risk management requires an estimate of the probability of extreme price changes. Therefore, the correct representation of the distribution of Novavax historical returns presented in an easy-to-digest graphical form helps investors and money managers understand the risk-reward trade-off of different investement strategies.
Novavax Stock Institutional Investors
Have you ever been surprised when a price of an equity instrument, such as Novavax, soars without any apparent reason? This usually happens because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Novavax back and forth among themselves.
| Shares | Renaissance Technologies Corp | 2024-12-31 | 1.4 M | Charles Schwab Investment Management Inc | 2024-12-31 | 1.4 M | Tsp Capital Management Group/llc | 2024-12-31 | 1.4 M | Sg Americas Securities, Llc | 2024-12-31 | 1.2 M | Citigroup Inc | 2024-12-31 | 1 M | Millennium Management Llc | 2024-12-31 | 1 M | Goldman Sachs Group Inc | 2024-12-31 | 957.7 K | Jane Street Group Llc | 2024-12-31 | 951.9 K | Citadel Advisors Llc | 2024-12-31 | 853.5 K | Vanguard Group Inc | 2024-12-31 | 15.7 M | Blackrock Inc | 2024-12-31 | 13.5 M |
Novavax Cash Flow Accounts
| 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 (projected) | ||
| Change In Cash | 566.6M | 879.5M | (179.4M) | (765.0M) | (38.5M) | (36.6M) | |
| Free Cash Flow | (97.2M) | 265.5M | (508.9M) | (772.8M) | (100.3M) | (105.3M) | |
| Depreciation | 4.9M | 12.7M | 29.1M | 41.2M | 48.5M | 50.9M | |
| Other Non Cash Items | 230.8M | 136.8M | 443.8M | 81.3M | (44.9M) | (42.6M) | |
| Capital Expenditures | 54.6M | 57.5M | 93.0M | 58.8M | 13.1M | 14.0M | |
| Net Income | (418.3M) | (1.7B) | (657.9M) | (545.1M) | (187.5M) | (196.9M) | |
| End Period Cash Flow | 648.7M | 1.5B | 1.3B | 583.8M | 545.3M | 572.6M | |
| Change To Inventory | (163.2M) | (600.3M) | (477.8M) | (74.5M) | 12.9M | 13.6M | |
| Investments | (157.6M) | 157.6M | (93.0M) | (71.8M) | (204.0M) | (193.8M) | |
| Change To Netincome | 13.0M | 111.5M | 176.0M | 574.1M | 660.2M | 693.2M |
Novavax Greeks
Most traded equities are subject to two types of risk - systematic (i.e., market) and unsystematic (i.e., nonmarket or company-specific) risk. Unsystematic risk is the risk that events specific to Novavax or Biotechnology sector will adversely affect the stock's price. This type of risk can be diversified away by owning several different stocks in different industries whose stock prices have shown a small correlation to each other. On the other hand, systematic risk is the risk that Novavax's price will be affected by overall stock market movements and cannot be diversified away. So, no matter how many positions you have, you cannot eliminate market risk. However, you can measure a Novavax stock's historical response to market movements and buy it if you are comfortable with its volatility direction. Beta and standard deviation are two commonly used measures to help you make the right decision.
α | Alpha over Dow Jones | 0.08 | |
β | Beta against Dow Jones | 1.54 | |
σ | Overall volatility | 4.63 | |
Ir | Information ratio | 0.01 |
Novavax Volatility Alert
Novavax exhibits very low volatility with skewness of 1.13 and kurtosis of 3.87. Understanding different market volatility trends often help investors to time the market. Properly using volatility indicators enable traders to measure Novavax's stock risk against market volatility during both bullish and bearish trends. The higher level of volatility that comes with bear markets can directly impact Novavax's stock price while adding stress to investors as they watch their shares' value plummet. This usually forces investors to rebalance their portfolios by buying different financial instruments as prices fall.Novavax Fundamentals Vs Peers
Comparing Novavax's fundamentals to the average values of its peers is one of the most widely used and accepted methods of equity analyses. It helps to analyze Novavax's direct or indirect competition across all of the common fundamentals between Novavax and the related equities. This way, we can detect undervalued stocks with similar characteristics as Novavax or determine the stocks which would be an excellent addition to an existing portfolio. Peer analysis of Novavax's fundamental indicators could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Novavax by comparing valuation metrics with those of similar companies.
| Better Than Average | Worse Than Average | Compare Novavax to competition |
| Fundamentals | Novavax | Peer Average |
| Return On Equity | -8.98 | -0.31 |
| Return On Asset | -0.0863 | -0.14 |
| Profit Margin | (0.27) % | (1.27) % |
| Operating Margin | (1.42) % | (5.51) % |
| Current Valuation | 592.45 M | 16.62 B |
| Shares Outstanding | 160.84 M | 571.82 M |
| Shares Owned By Insiders | 8.80 % | 10.09 % |
| Shares Owned By Institutions | 60.18 % | 39.21 % |
| Number Of Shares Shorted | 35.45 M | 4.71 M |
| Price To Earning | (1.36) X | 28.72 X |
| Price To Book | 49.52 X | 9.51 X |
| Price To Sales | 1.88 X | 11.42 X |
| Revenue | 682.16 M | 9.43 B |
| Gross Profit | 112.52 M | 27.38 B |
| EBITDA | (108.04 M) | 3.9 B |
| Net Income | (187.5 M) | 570.98 M |
| Cash And Equivalents | 1.28 B | 2.7 B |
| Cash Per Share | 16.31 X | 5.01 X |
| Total Debt | 230.42 M | 5.32 B |
| Debt To Equity | 8.24 % | 48.70 % |
| Current Ratio | 1.05 X | 2.16 X |
| Book Value Per Share | (3.89) X | 1.93 K |
| Cash Flow From Operations | (87.26 M) | 971.22 M |
| Short Ratio | 9.02 X | 4.00 X |
| Earnings Per Share | (1.23) X | 3.12 X |
| Target Price | 16.43 | |
| Number Of Employees | 952 | 18.84 K |
| Beta | 2.91 | -0.15 |
| Market Capitalization | 1.29 B | 19.03 B |
| Total Asset | 1.56 B | 29.47 B |
| Retained Earnings | (5.01 B) | 9.33 B |
| Working Capital | (25.47 M) | 1.48 B |
| Current Asset | 287.26 M | 9.34 B |
Note: Disposition of 1107 shares by Young James F of Novavax at 14.28 subject to Rule 16b-3 [view details]
Novavax Market Momentum
Traders often use several daily momentume indicators to supplement a more traditional technical analysis when analyzing securities such as Novavax . With many different options, investors must choose the best indicators for them and familiarize themselves with how they work. We suggest combining traditional momentum indicators with more near-term forms of technical analysis such as Accumulation Distribution or Daily Balance Of Power. With their quantitative nature, daily value technical indicators can also be incorporated into your automated trading systems.
About Novavax Buy or Sell Advice
When is the right time to buy or sell Novavax? Buying financial instruments such as Novavax Stock isn't very hard. However, what challenging for most investors is doing it at the right time to beat the market. Proper market timing is something most people cannot do without sophisticated tools, which help to isolate the right opportunities. Macroaxis provides hands-on modules to deliver winning trades and diversify your portfolios on a daily basis. Most of our advising modules are very easy to use and apply.
Please read more on our stock advisor page.
Use Investing Ideas to Build Portfolios
In addition to having Novavax in your portfolios, you can quickly add positions using our predefined set of ideas and optimize them against your very unique investing style. A single investing idea is a collection of funds, stocks, ETFs, or cryptocurrencies that are programmatically selected from a pull of investment themes. After you determine your investment opportunity, you can then find an optimal portfolio that will maximize potential returns on the chosen idea or minimize its exposure to market volatility.Did You Try This Idea?
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Fama and French investing themes focus on testing asset pricing under different economic assumptions. The Insurance theme has 61 constituents at this time.
You can either use a buy-and-hold strategy to lock in the entire theme or actively trade it to take advantage of the short-term price volatility of individual constituents. Macroaxis can help you discover thousands of investment opportunities in different asset classes. In addition, you can partner with us for reliable portfolio optimization as you plan to utilize Insurance Theme or any other thematic opportunities.
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Additional Tools for Novavax Stock Analysis
When running Novavax's price analysis, check to measure Novavax's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Novavax is operating at the current time. Most of Novavax's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Novavax's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Novavax's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Novavax to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.