Pennymac Mortgage Investment Stock Price Prediction
| PMT Stock | USD 14.51 0.25 1.75% |
Momentum 73
Buy Stretched
Oversold | Overbought |
Quarterly Earnings Growth (0.05) | EPS Estimate Next Quarter 0.3596 | EPS Estimate Current Year 1.5293 | EPS Estimate Next Year 1.5875 | Wall Street Target Price 14.4286 |
Using PennyMac Mortgage hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of PennyMac Mortgage Investment from the perspective of PennyMac Mortgage response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors. We also analyze overall investor sentiment towards PennyMac Mortgage using PennyMac Mortgage's stock options and short interest. It helps to benchmark the overall future attitude of investors towards PennyMac using crowd psychology based on the activity and movement of PennyMac Mortgage's stock price.
PennyMac Mortgage Short Interest
An investor who is long PennyMac Mortgage may also wish to track short interest. As short interest increases, investors should be becoming more worried about PennyMac Mortgage and may potentially protect profits, hedge PennyMac Mortgage with its derivative instruments, or be ready for some potential downside.
200 Day MA 13.669 | Short Percent 0.0667 | Short Ratio 5.36 | Shares Short Prior Month 3.5 M | 50 Day MA 13.4602 |
PennyMac Mortgage Hype to Price Pattern
Investor biases related to PennyMac Mortgage's public news can be used to forecast risks associated with an investment in PennyMac. The trend in average sentiment can be used to explain how an investor holding PennyMac can time the market purely based on public headlines and social activities around PennyMac Mortgage Investment. Please note that most equities that are difficult to arbitrage are affected by market sentiment the most.
Some investors profit by finding stocks that are overvalued or undervalued based on market sentiment. The correlation of PennyMac Mortgage's market sentiment to its price can help taders to make decisions based on the overall investors consensus about PennyMac Mortgage.
PennyMac Mortgage Implied Volatility | 1.57 |
PennyMac Mortgage's implied volatility exposes the market's sentiment of PennyMac Mortgage Investment stock's possible movements over time. However, it does not forecast the overall direction of its price. In a nutshell, if PennyMac Mortgage's implied volatility is high, the market thinks the stock has potential for high price swings in either direction. On the other hand, the low implied volatility suggests that PennyMac Mortgage stock will not fluctuate a lot when PennyMac Mortgage's options are near their expiration.
The fear of missing out, i.e., FOMO, can cause potential investors in PennyMac Mortgage to buy its stock at a price that has no basis in reality. In that case, they are not buying PennyMac because the equity is a good investment, but because they need to do something to avoid the feeling of missing out. On the other hand, investors will often sell stocks at prices well below their value during bear markets because they need to stop feeling the pain of losing money.
PennyMac Mortgage after-hype prediction price | USD 14.55 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Prediction based on Rule 16 of the current PennyMac contract
Based on the Rule 16, the options market is currently suggesting that PennyMac Mortgage Investment will have an average daily up or down price movement of about 0.0981% per day over the life of the 2025-04-17 option contract. With PennyMac Mortgage trading at USD 14.51, that is roughly USD 0.0142 . If you think that the market is fully incorporating PennyMac Mortgage's daily price movement you should consider acquiring PennyMac Mortgage Investment options at the current volatility level of 1.57%. But if you have an opposite viewpoint you should avoid it and even consider selling them.
PennyMac |
PennyMac Mortgage After-Hype Price Prediction Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of PennyMac Mortgage at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in PennyMac Mortgage or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of PennyMac Mortgage, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
PennyMac Mortgage Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting PennyMac Mortgage's stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on PennyMac Mortgage's historical news coverage. PennyMac Mortgage's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 13.13 and 15.97, respectively. We have considered PennyMac Mortgage's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
PennyMac Mortgage is very steady at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of PennyMac Mortgage is based on 3 months time horizon.
PennyMac Mortgage Stock Price Prediction Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as PennyMac Mortgage is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading PennyMac Mortgage backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with PennyMac Mortgage, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.17 | 1.42 | 0.04 | 0.01 | 13 Events / Month | 13 Events / Month | In about 13 days |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | ||
14.51 | 14.55 | 0.28 |
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PennyMac Mortgage Hype Timeline
On the 15th of March 2025 PennyMac Mortgage is traded for 14.51. The entity has historical hype elasticity of 0.04, and average elasticity to hype of competition of 0.01. PennyMac is expected to increase in value after the next headline, with the price projected to jump to 14.55 or above. The average volatility of media hype impact on the company the price is over 100%. The price appreciation on the next news is projected to be 0.28%, whereas the daily expected return is at this time at 0.17%. The volatility of related hype on PennyMac Mortgage is about 2737.35%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 14.52. The company reported the last year's revenue of 14.72 M. Total Income to common stockholders was 160.2 M with profit before taxes, overhead, and interest of 380.5 M. Considering the 90-day investment horizon the next expected press release will be in about 13 days. Check out PennyMac Mortgage Basic Forecasting Models to cross-verify your projections.PennyMac Mortgage Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to PennyMac Mortgage's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict PennyMac Mortgage's future price movements. Getting to know how PennyMac Mortgage's peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how PennyMac Mortgage may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
PennyMac Mortgage Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine PennyMac price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for PennyMac using various technical indicators. When you analyze PennyMac charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
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| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
About PennyMac Mortgage Predictive Indicators
The successful prediction of PennyMac Mortgage stock price could yield a significant profit to investors. But is it possible? The efficient-market hypothesis suggests that all published stock prices of traded companies, such as PennyMac Mortgage Investment, already reflect all publicly available information. This academic statement is a fundamental principle of many financial and investing theories used today. However, the typical investor usually disagrees with a 'textbook' version of this hypothesis and continually tries to find mispriced stocks to increase returns. We use internally-developed statistical techniques to arrive at the intrinsic value of PennyMac Mortgage based on analysis of PennyMac Mortgage hews, social hype, general headline patterns, and widely used predictive technical indicators.
We also calculate exposure to PennyMac Mortgage's market risk, different technical and fundamental indicators, relevant financial multiples and ratios, and then comparing them to PennyMac Mortgage's related companies. | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 (projected) | Dividend Yield | 0.19 | 0.14 | 0.0383 | 0.0363 | Price To Sales Ratio | 10.99 | 1.8 | 74.24 | 77.95 |
Story Coverage note for PennyMac Mortgage
The number of cover stories for PennyMac Mortgage depends on current market conditions and PennyMac Mortgage's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that PennyMac Mortgage is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about PennyMac Mortgage's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
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PennyMac Mortgage Short Properties
PennyMac Mortgage's future price predictability will typically decrease when PennyMac Mortgage's long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of PennyMac Mortgage Investment often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential PennyMac Mortgage's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. PennyMac Mortgage's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 86.8 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 337.7 M |
Additional Tools for PennyMac Stock Analysis
When running PennyMac Mortgage's price analysis, check to measure PennyMac Mortgage's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy PennyMac Mortgage is operating at the current time. Most of PennyMac Mortgage's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of PennyMac Mortgage's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move PennyMac Mortgage's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of PennyMac Mortgage to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.