Msc Industrial Direct Stock Price Prediction
| MSM Stock | USD 78.21 0.22 0.28% |
Momentum 52
Impartial
Oversold | Overbought |
Quarterly Earnings Growth (0.32) | EPS Estimate Current Year 3.5442 | EPS Estimate Next Year 4.0643 | Wall Street Target Price 85 | EPS Estimate Current Quarter 0.7271 |
Using MSC Industrial hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of MSC Industrial Direct from the perspective of MSC Industrial response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors. We also analyze overall investor sentiment towards MSC Industrial using MSC Industrial's stock options and short interest. It helps to benchmark the overall future attitude of investors towards MSC using crowd psychology based on the activity and movement of MSC Industrial's stock price.
MSC Industrial Short Interest
An investor who is long MSC Industrial may also wish to track short interest. As short interest increases, investors should be becoming more worried about MSC Industrial and may potentially protect profits, hedge MSC Industrial with its derivative instruments, or be ready for some potential downside.
200 Day MA 82.5546 | Short Percent 0.077 | Short Ratio 3.76 | Shares Short Prior Month 3.4 M | 50 Day MA 80.2954 |
MSC Industrial Direct Hype to Price Pattern
Investor biases related to MSC Industrial's public news can be used to forecast risks associated with an investment in MSC. The trend in average sentiment can be used to explain how an investor holding MSC can time the market purely based on public headlines and social activities around MSC Industrial Direct. Please note that most equities that are difficult to arbitrage are affected by market sentiment the most.
Some investors profit by finding stocks that are overvalued or undervalued based on market sentiment. The correlation of MSC Industrial's market sentiment to its price can help taders to make decisions based on the overall investors consensus about MSC Industrial.
MSC Industrial Implied Volatility | 0.41 |
MSC Industrial's implied volatility exposes the market's sentiment of MSC Industrial Direct stock's possible movements over time. However, it does not forecast the overall direction of its price. In a nutshell, if MSC Industrial's implied volatility is high, the market thinks the stock has potential for high price swings in either direction. On the other hand, the low implied volatility suggests that MSC Industrial stock will not fluctuate a lot when MSC Industrial's options are near their expiration.
The fear of missing out, i.e., FOMO, can cause potential investors in MSC Industrial to buy its stock at a price that has no basis in reality. In that case, they are not buying MSC because the equity is a good investment, but because they need to do something to avoid the feeling of missing out. On the other hand, investors will often sell stocks at prices well below their value during bear markets because they need to stop feeling the pain of losing money.
MSC Industrial after-hype prediction price | USD 78.21 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Prediction based on Rule 16 of the current MSC contract
Based on the Rule 16, the options market is currently suggesting that MSC Industrial Direct will have an average daily up or down price movement of about 0.0256% per day over the life of the 2025-04-17 option contract. With MSC Industrial trading at USD 78.21, that is roughly USD 0.02 . If you think that the market is fully incorporating MSC Industrial's daily price movement you should consider acquiring MSC Industrial Direct options at the current volatility level of 0.41%. But if you have an opposite viewpoint you should avoid it and even consider selling them.
MSC |
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of MSC Industrial's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
MSC Industrial After-Hype Price Prediction Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of MSC Industrial at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in MSC Industrial or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of MSC Industrial, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
MSC Industrial Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting MSC Industrial's stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on MSC Industrial's historical news coverage. MSC Industrial's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 76.71 and 79.71, respectively. We have considered MSC Industrial's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
MSC Industrial is very steady at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of MSC Industrial Direct is based on 3 months time horizon.
MSC Industrial Stock Price Prediction Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as MSC Industrial is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading MSC Industrial backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with MSC Industrial, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.13 | 1.50 | 0.07 | 0.15 | 10 Events / Month | 9 Events / Month | In about 10 days |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | ||
78.21 | 78.21 | 0.00 |
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MSC Industrial Hype Timeline
On the 27th of February MSC Industrial Direct is traded for 78.21. The entity has historical hype elasticity of -0.07, and average elasticity to hype of competition of 0.15. MSC is projected not to react to the next headline, with the price staying at about the same level, and average media hype impact volatility is over 100%. The immediate return on the next news is projected to be very small, whereas the daily expected return is now at -0.13%. %. The volatility of related hype on MSC Industrial is about 132.11%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 78.36. About 21.0% of the company outstanding shares are owned by corporate insiders. The book value of MSC Industrial was now reported as 24.6. The company has Price/Earnings To Growth (PEG) ratio of 2.3. MSC Industrial Direct last dividend was issued on the 15th of January 2025. The entity had 2:1 split on the 26th of May 1998. Considering the 90-day investment horizon the next projected press release will be in about 10 days. Check out MSC Industrial Basic Forecasting Models to cross-verify your projections.MSC Industrial Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to MSC Industrial's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict MSC Industrial's future price movements. Getting to know how MSC Industrial's peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how MSC Industrial may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| DXPE | DXP Enterprises | (0.20) | 12 per month | 2.45 | 0.16 | 4.38 | (3.85) | 15.13 | |
| CNM | Core Main | (1.29) | 13 per month | 1.28 | 0.08 | 3.06 | (2.26) | 18.90 | |
| GWW | WW Grainger | 5.74 | 8 per month | 0.00 | (0.19) | 1.18 | (1.80) | 7.86 | |
| SITE | SiteOne Landscape Supply | (0.29) | 7 per month | 0.00 | (0.04) | 3.78 | (3.42) | 9.51 | |
| AIT | Applied Industrial Technologies | 2.23 | 9 per month | 0.00 | (0.06) | 2.31 | (2.35) | 10.46 | |
| FERG | Ferguson Plc | 4.21 | 9 per month | 0.00 | (0.09) | 2.71 | (2.80) | 13.86 | |
| GIC | Global Industrial Co | (0.34) | 8 per month | 0.00 | (0.12) | 2.16 | (2.83) | 6.92 | |
| FAST | Fastenal Company | 1.06 | 8 per month | 0.00 | (0.13) | 1.51 | (1.79) | 4.71 | |
| WSO | Watsco Inc | 4.59 | 8 per month | 0.00 | (0.04) | 2.52 | (3.21) | 13.32 | |
| DSGR | Distribution Solutions Group | (0.30) | 6 per month | 0.00 | (0.23) | 1.71 | (3.22) | 7.76 | |
| BXC | BlueLinx Holdings | (2.92) | 8 per month | 0.00 | (0.20) | 3.47 | (4.37) | 14.89 |
MSC Industrial Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine MSC price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for MSC using various technical indicators. When you analyze MSC charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
About MSC Industrial Predictive Indicators
The successful prediction of MSC Industrial stock price could yield a significant profit to investors. But is it possible? The efficient-market hypothesis suggests that all published stock prices of traded companies, such as MSC Industrial Direct, already reflect all publicly available information. This academic statement is a fundamental principle of many financial and investing theories used today. However, the typical investor usually disagrees with a 'textbook' version of this hypothesis and continually tries to find mispriced stocks to increase returns. We use internally-developed statistical techniques to arrive at the intrinsic value of MSC Industrial based on analysis of MSC Industrial hews, social hype, general headline patterns, and widely used predictive technical indicators.
We also calculate exposure to MSC Industrial's market risk, different technical and fundamental indicators, relevant financial multiples and ratios, and then comparing them to MSC Industrial's related companies. | 2018 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 (projected) | Dividend Yield | 0.0311 | 0.0405 | 0.0364 | 0.0271 | Price To Sales Ratio | 1.42 | 1.21 | 1.39 | 1.89 |
Story Coverage note for MSC Industrial
The number of cover stories for MSC Industrial depends on current market conditions and MSC Industrial's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that MSC Industrial is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about MSC Industrial's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
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MSC Industrial Short Properties
MSC Industrial's future price predictability will typically decrease when MSC Industrial's long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of MSC Industrial Direct often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential MSC Industrial's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. MSC Industrial's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 56.4 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 29.6 M |
Check out MSC Industrial Basic Forecasting Models to cross-verify your projections. You can also try the Alpha Finder module to use alpha and beta coefficients to find investment opportunities after accounting for the risk.
Is Trading Companies & Distributors space expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of MSC Industrial. If investors know MSC will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about MSC Industrial listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth (0.32) | Dividend Share 3.36 | Earnings Share 4.18 | Revenue Per Share | Quarterly Revenue Growth (0.03) |
The market value of MSC Industrial Direct is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of MSC that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of MSC Industrial's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is MSC Industrial's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because MSC Industrial's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect MSC Industrial's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between MSC Industrial's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if MSC Industrial is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, MSC Industrial's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.