Harmony Gold Mining Stock Price Prediction
| HMY Stock | USD 12.11 0.10 0.82% |
Momentum 38
Sell Extended
Oversold | Overbought |
Quarterly Earnings Growth 0.319 | EPS Estimate Current Year 1.0751 | EPS Estimate Next Year 1.4581 | Wall Street Target Price 11.1969 | Quarterly Revenue Growth 0.182 |
Using Harmony Gold hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Harmony Gold Mining from the perspective of Harmony Gold response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors. We also analyze overall investor sentiment towards Harmony Gold using Harmony Gold's stock options and short interest. It helps to benchmark the overall future attitude of investors towards Harmony using crowd psychology based on the activity and movement of Harmony Gold's stock price.
Harmony Gold Short Interest
An investor who is long Harmony Gold may also wish to track short interest. As short interest increases, investors should be becoming more worried about Harmony Gold and may potentially protect profits, hedge Harmony Gold with its derivative instruments, or be ready for some potential downside.
200 Day MA 9.8781 | Short Percent 0.0217 | Short Ratio 1.39 | Shares Short Prior Month 12.1 M | 50 Day MA 10.6936 |
Harmony Gold Mining Hype to Price Pattern
Investor biases related to Harmony Gold's public news can be used to forecast risks associated with an investment in Harmony. The trend in average sentiment can be used to explain how an investor holding Harmony can time the market purely based on public headlines and social activities around Harmony Gold Mining. Please note that most equities that are difficult to arbitrage are affected by market sentiment the most.
Some investors profit by finding stocks that are overvalued or undervalued based on market sentiment. The correlation of Harmony Gold's market sentiment to its price can help taders to make decisions based on the overall investors consensus about Harmony Gold.
Harmony Gold Implied Volatility | 0.87 |
Harmony Gold's implied volatility exposes the market's sentiment of Harmony Gold Mining stock's possible movements over time. However, it does not forecast the overall direction of its price. In a nutshell, if Harmony Gold's implied volatility is high, the market thinks the stock has potential for high price swings in either direction. On the other hand, the low implied volatility suggests that Harmony Gold stock will not fluctuate a lot when Harmony Gold's options are near their expiration.
The fear of missing out, i.e., FOMO, can cause potential investors in Harmony Gold to buy its stock at a price that has no basis in reality. In that case, they are not buying Harmony because the equity is a good investment, but because they need to do something to avoid the feeling of missing out. On the other hand, investors will often sell stocks at prices well below their value during bear markets because they need to stop feeling the pain of losing money.
Harmony Gold after-hype prediction price | USD 12.23 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Prediction based on Rule 16 of the current Harmony contract
Based on the Rule 16, the options market is currently suggesting that Harmony Gold Mining will have an average daily up or down price movement of about 0.0544% per day over the life of the 2025-05-16 option contract. With Harmony Gold trading at USD 12.11, that is roughly USD 0.006585 . If you think that the market is fully incorporating Harmony Gold's daily price movement you should consider acquiring Harmony Gold Mining options at the current volatility level of 0.87%. But if you have an opposite viewpoint you should avoid it and even consider selling them.
Harmony |
Harmony Gold After-Hype Price Prediction Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of Harmony Gold at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in Harmony Gold or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of Harmony Gold, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
Harmony Gold Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting Harmony Gold's stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on Harmony Gold's historical news coverage. Harmony Gold's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 9.16 and 15.30, respectively. We have considered Harmony Gold's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
Harmony Gold is somewhat reliable at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of Harmony Gold Mining is based on 3 months time horizon.
Harmony Gold Stock Price Prediction Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as Harmony Gold is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Harmony Gold backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Harmony Gold, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.56 | 3.07 | 0.12 | 0.54 | 7 Events / Month | 2 Events / Month | In about 7 days |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | ||
12.11 | 12.23 | 0.99 |
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Harmony Gold Hype Timeline
On the 16th of March 2025 Harmony Gold Mining is traded for 12.11. The entity has historical hype elasticity of 0.12, and average elasticity to hype of competition of 0.54. Harmony is expected to increase in value after the next headline, with the price projected to jump to 12.23 or above. The average volatility of media hype impact on the company the price is over 100%. The price jump on the next news is projected to be 0.99%, whereas the daily expected return is currently at 0.56%. The volatility of related hype on Harmony Gold is about 316.49%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 12.65. The company reported the last year's revenue of 61.38 B. Total Income to common stockholders was 8.59 B with profit before taxes, overhead, and interest of 25.19 B. Considering the 90-day investment horizon the next expected press release will be in about 7 days. Check out Harmony Gold Basic Forecasting Models to cross-verify your projections.Harmony Gold Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to Harmony Gold's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Harmony Gold's future price movements. Getting to know how Harmony Gold's peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how Harmony Gold may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| CSTM | Constellium Nv | 0.24 | 9 per month | 2.32 | 0.07 | 5.54 | (3.90) | 20.37 | |
| CENX | Century Aluminum | 0.72 | 8 per month | 0.00 | 0 | 8.04 | (7.35) | 23.49 | |
| CHHQF | China Hongqiao Group | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.00 | 0.13 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 3.61 | |
| KALU | Kaiser Aluminum | 3.89 | 8 per month | 0.00 | (0.04) | 3.07 | (3.37) | 9.62 | |
| NHYKF | Norsk Hydro ASA | 0.00 | 0 per month | 2.95 | 0.04 | 4.71 | (4.57) | 12.74 |
Harmony Gold Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine Harmony price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Harmony using various technical indicators. When you analyze Harmony charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
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| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
About Harmony Gold Predictive Indicators
The successful prediction of Harmony Gold stock price could yield a significant profit to investors. But is it possible? The efficient-market hypothesis suggests that all published stock prices of traded companies, such as Harmony Gold Mining, already reflect all publicly available information. This academic statement is a fundamental principle of many financial and investing theories used today. However, the typical investor usually disagrees with a 'textbook' version of this hypothesis and continually tries to find mispriced stocks to increase returns. We use internally-developed statistical techniques to arrive at the intrinsic value of Harmony Gold based on analysis of Harmony Gold hews, social hype, general headline patterns, and widely used predictive technical indicators.
We also calculate exposure to Harmony Gold's market risk, different technical and fundamental indicators, relevant financial multiples and ratios, and then comparing them to Harmony Gold's related companies. | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 (projected) | Dividend Yield | 0.003146 | 0.0138 | 0.0159 | 0.0174 | Price To Sales Ratio | 0.99 | 1.69 | 1.95 | 1.96 |
Story Coverage note for Harmony Gold
The number of cover stories for Harmony Gold depends on current market conditions and Harmony Gold's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that Harmony Gold is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about Harmony Gold's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
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Harmony Gold Short Properties
Harmony Gold's future price predictability will typically decrease when Harmony Gold's long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of Harmony Gold Mining often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential Harmony Gold's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Harmony Gold's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 629.7 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 4.7 B |
Additional Tools for Harmony Stock Analysis
When running Harmony Gold's price analysis, check to measure Harmony Gold's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Harmony Gold is operating at the current time. Most of Harmony Gold's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Harmony Gold's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Harmony Gold's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Harmony Gold to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.