Heritage Financial Stock Price Prediction
| HFWA Stock | USD 23.77 0.53 2.28% |
Momentum 55
Impartial
Oversold | Overbought |
Quarterly Earnings Growth 0.908 | EPS Estimate Next Quarter 0.424 | EPS Estimate Current Year 2.0183 | EPS Estimate Next Year 2.295 | Wall Street Target Price 29.6 |
Using Heritage Financial hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Heritage Financial from the perspective of Heritage Financial response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors. We also analyze overall investor sentiment towards Heritage Financial using Heritage Financial's stock options and short interest. It helps to benchmark the overall future attitude of investors towards Heritage using crowd psychology based on the activity and movement of Heritage Financial's stock price.
Heritage Financial Implied Volatility | 0.63 |
Heritage Financial's implied volatility exposes the market's sentiment of Heritage Financial stock's possible movements over time. However, it does not forecast the overall direction of its price. In a nutshell, if Heritage Financial's implied volatility is high, the market thinks the stock has potential for high price swings in either direction. On the other hand, the low implied volatility suggests that Heritage Financial stock will not fluctuate a lot when Heritage Financial's options are near their expiration.
The fear of missing out, i.e., FOMO, can cause potential investors in Heritage Financial to buy its stock at a price that has no basis in reality. In that case, they are not buying Heritage because the equity is a good investment, but because they need to do something to avoid the feeling of missing out. On the other hand, investors will often sell stocks at prices well below their value during bear markets because they need to stop feeling the pain of losing money.
Heritage Financial after-hype prediction price | USD 23.75 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Prediction based on Rule 16 of the current Heritage contract
Based on the Rule 16, the options market is currently suggesting that Heritage Financial will have an average daily up or down price movement of about 0.0394% per day over the life of the 2025-06-20 option contract. With Heritage Financial trading at USD 23.77, that is roughly USD 0.009359 . If you think that the market is fully incorporating Heritage Financial's daily price movement you should consider acquiring Heritage Financial options at the current volatility level of 0.63%. But if you have an opposite viewpoint you should avoid it and even consider selling them.
Heritage |
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Heritage Financial's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Heritage Financial After-Hype Price Prediction Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of Heritage Financial at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in Heritage Financial or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of Heritage Financial, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
Heritage Financial Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting Heritage Financial's stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on Heritage Financial's historical news coverage. Heritage Financial's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 21.99 and 25.51, respectively. We have considered Heritage Financial's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
Heritage Financial is very steady at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of Heritage Financial is based on 3 months time horizon.
Heritage Financial Stock Price Prediction Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as Heritage Financial is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Heritage Financial backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Heritage Financial, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.15 | 1.76 | 0.02 | 0.09 | 8 Events / Month | 4 Events / Month | In about 8 days |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | ||
23.77 | 23.75 | 0.08 |
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Heritage Financial Hype Timeline
Heritage Financial is currently traded for 23.77. The entity has historical hype elasticity of -0.02, and average elasticity to hype of competition of -0.09. Heritage is anticipated to decline in value after the next headline, with the price expected to drop to 23.75. The average volatility of media hype impact on the company price is over 100%. The price decrease on the next news is expected to be -0.08%, whereas the daily expected return is currently at -0.15%. The volatility of related hype on Heritage Financial is about 289.47%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 23.68. About 84.0% of the company shares are owned by institutional investors. The company has price-to-book (P/B) ratio of 0.91. Some equities with similar Price to Book (P/B) outperform the market in the long run. Heritage Financial has Price/Earnings To Growth (PEG) ratio of 2.13. The entity last dividend was issued on the 6th of February 2025. The firm had 21:20 split on the 28th of September 2005. Given the investment horizon of 90 days the next anticipated press release will be in about 8 days. Check out Heritage Financial Basic Forecasting Models to cross-verify your projections.Heritage Financial Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to Heritage Financial's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Heritage Financial's future price movements. Getting to know how Heritage Financial's peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how Heritage Financial may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| HTBK | Heritage Commerce Corp | 0.07 | 8 per month | 0.00 | (0.0006) | 2.22 | (2.81) | 7.95 | |
| HBNC | Horizon Bancorp | (0.32) | 7 per month | 0.00 | (0.04) | 2.69 | (3.47) | 8.85 | |
| HTLF | Heartland Financial USA | (0.19) | 7 per month | 1.51 | 0.14 | 3.53 | (2.52) | 19.68 | |
| INDB | Independent Bank | (1.90) | 9 per month | 0.00 | (0.03) | 2.88 | (3.27) | 9.25 | |
| GSBC | Great Southern Bancorp | (0.70) | 7 per month | 0.00 | (0.04) | 2.27 | (3.02) | 7.73 |
Heritage Financial Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine Heritage price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Heritage using various technical indicators. When you analyze Heritage charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
About Heritage Financial Predictive Indicators
The successful prediction of Heritage Financial stock price could yield a significant profit to investors. But is it possible? The efficient-market hypothesis suggests that all published stock prices of traded companies, such as Heritage Financial, already reflect all publicly available information. This academic statement is a fundamental principle of many financial and investing theories used today. However, the typical investor usually disagrees with a 'textbook' version of this hypothesis and continually tries to find mispriced stocks to increase returns. We use internally-developed statistical techniques to arrive at the intrinsic value of Heritage Financial based on analysis of Heritage Financial hews, social hype, general headline patterns, and widely used predictive technical indicators.
We also calculate exposure to Heritage Financial's market risk, different technical and fundamental indicators, relevant financial multiples and ratios, and then comparing them to Heritage Financial's related companies. | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 (projected) | Dividend Yield | 0.0274 | 0.0411 | 0.0376 | 0.0238 | Price To Sales Ratio | 4.32 | 3.13 | 2.73 | 2.84 |
Story Coverage note for Heritage Financial
The number of cover stories for Heritage Financial depends on current market conditions and Heritage Financial's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that Heritage Financial is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about Heritage Financial's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
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Heritage Financial Short Properties
Heritage Financial's future price predictability will typically decrease when Heritage Financial's long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of Heritage Financial often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential Heritage Financial's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Heritage Financial's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 34.9 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 823.2 M |
Complementary Tools for Heritage Stock analysis
When running Heritage Financial's price analysis, check to measure Heritage Financial's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Heritage Financial is operating at the current time. Most of Heritage Financial's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Heritage Financial's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Heritage Financial's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Heritage Financial to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
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