Heritage Financial Stock Forecast - Triple Exponential Smoothing
| HFWA Stock | USD 26.45 0.35 1.31% |
The Triple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Heritage Financial on the next trading day is expected to be 26.43 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.36 and the sum of the absolute errors of 21.51. Heritage Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon. Investors can use this forecasting interface to forecast Heritage Financial stock prices and determine the direction of Heritage Financial's future trends based on various well-known forecasting models. We recommend always using this module together with an analysis of Heritage Financial's historical fundamentals, such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns.
Heritage |
Heritage Financial Triple Exponential Smoothing Price Forecast For the 30th of November
Given 90 days horizon, the Triple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Heritage Financial on the next trading day is expected to be 26.43 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.36, mean absolute percentage error of 0.39, and the sum of the absolute errors of 21.51.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Heritage Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Heritage Financial's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Heritage Financial Stock Forecast Pattern
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Heritage Financial Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting Heritage Financial's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Heritage Financial's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 23.84 and 29.02, respectively. We have considered Heritage Financial's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Triple Exponential Smoothing forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Heritage Financial stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Heritage Financial stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | Huge |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | -0.1042 |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 0.3646 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0155 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 21.51 |
Predictive Modules for Heritage Financial
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Heritage Financial. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Heritage Financial's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Other Forecasting Options for Heritage Financial
For every potential investor in Heritage, whether a beginner or expert, Heritage Financial's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Heritage Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Heritage. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Heritage Financial's price trends.Heritage Financial Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Heritage Financial stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Heritage Financial could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Heritage Financial by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Heritage Financial Technical and Predictive Analytics
The stock market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of Heritage Financial's price movements, a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of Heritage Financial's current price.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
Heritage Financial Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Heritage Financial stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Heritage Financial shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Heritage Financial stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Heritage Financial entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
| Accumulation Distribution | 3212.08 | |||
| Daily Balance Of Power | (0.38) | |||
| Rate Of Daily Change | 0.99 | |||
| Day Median Price | 26.67 | |||
| Day Typical Price | 26.59 | |||
| Price Action Indicator | (0.39) | |||
| Period Momentum Indicator | (0.35) | |||
| Relative Strength Index | 76.65 |
Heritage Financial Risk Indicators
The analysis of Heritage Financial's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Heritage Financial's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting heritage stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 1.53 | |||
| Semi Deviation | 1.54 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 2.58 | |||
| Variance | 6.64 | |||
| Downside Variance | 4.4 | |||
| Semi Variance | 2.38 | |||
| Expected Short fall | (1.56) |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Also Currently Popular
Analyzing currently trending equities could be an opportunity to develop a better portfolio based on different market momentums that they can trigger. Utilizing the top trending stocks is also useful when creating a market-neutral strategy or pair trading technique involving a short or a long position in a currently trending equity.When determining whether Heritage Financial offers a strong return on investment in its stock, a comprehensive analysis is essential. The process typically begins with a thorough review of Heritage Financial's financial statements, including income statements, balance sheets, and cash flow statements, to assess its financial health. Key financial ratios are used to gauge profitability, efficiency, and growth potential of Heritage Financial Stock. Outlined below are crucial reports that will aid in making a well-informed decision on Heritage Financial Stock:Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Heritage Financial to cross-verify your projections. For information on how to trade Heritage Stock refer to our How to Trade Heritage Stock guide.You can also try the Pair Correlation module to compare performance and examine fundamental relationship between any two equity instruments.
Is Regional Banks space expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Heritage Financial. If investors know Heritage will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Heritage Financial listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth (0.35) | Dividend Share 0.91 | Earnings Share 1.08 | Revenue Per Share 5.885 | Quarterly Revenue Growth (0.17) |
The market value of Heritage Financial is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Heritage that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Heritage Financial's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Heritage Financial's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Heritage Financial's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Heritage Financial's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Heritage Financial's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Heritage Financial is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Heritage Financial's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.