Golub Capital Bdc Stock Price Prediction
| GBDC Stock | USD 14.67 0.21 1.45% |
Momentum 48
Impartial
Oversold | Overbought |
Quarterly Earnings Growth (0.06) | EPS Estimate Next Quarter 0.422 | EPS Estimate Current Year 1.585 | EPS Estimate Next Year 1.5925 | Wall Street Target Price 16.25 |
Using Golub Capital hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Golub Capital BDC from the perspective of Golub Capital response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors. We also analyze overall investor sentiment towards Golub Capital using Golub Capital's stock options and short interest. It helps to benchmark the overall future attitude of investors towards Golub using crowd psychology based on the activity and movement of Golub Capital's stock price.
Golub Capital Implied Volatility | 1.2 |
Golub Capital's implied volatility exposes the market's sentiment of Golub Capital BDC stock's possible movements over time. However, it does not forecast the overall direction of its price. In a nutshell, if Golub Capital's implied volatility is high, the market thinks the stock has potential for high price swings in either direction. On the other hand, the low implied volatility suggests that Golub Capital stock will not fluctuate a lot when Golub Capital's options are near their expiration.
The fear of missing out, i.e., FOMO, can cause potential investors in Golub Capital to buy its stock at a price that has no basis in reality. In that case, they are not buying Golub because the equity is a good investment, but because they need to do something to avoid the feeling of missing out. On the other hand, investors will often sell stocks at prices well below their value during bear markets because they need to stop feeling the pain of losing money.
Golub Capital after-hype prediction price | USD 14.67 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Prediction based on Rule 16 of the current Golub contract
Based on the Rule 16, the options market is currently suggesting that Golub Capital BDC will have an average daily up or down price movement of about 0.075% per day over the life of the 2025-05-16 option contract. With Golub Capital trading at USD 14.67, that is roughly USD 0.011 . If you think that the market is fully incorporating Golub Capital's daily price movement you should consider acquiring Golub Capital BDC options at the current volatility level of 1.2%. But if you have an opposite viewpoint you should avoid it and even consider selling them.
Golub |
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Golub Capital's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Golub Capital After-Hype Price Prediction Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of Golub Capital at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in Golub Capital or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of Golub Capital, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
Golub Capital Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting Golub Capital's stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on Golub Capital's historical news coverage. Golub Capital's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 13.77 and 15.57, respectively. We have considered Golub Capital's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
Golub Capital is very steady at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of Golub Capital BDC is based on 3 months time horizon.
Golub Capital Stock Price Prediction Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as Golub Capital is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Golub Capital backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Golub Capital, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.01 | 0.90 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 10 Events / Month | 5 Events / Month | In about 10 days |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | ||
14.67 | 14.67 | 0.00 |
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Golub Capital Hype Timeline
Golub Capital BDC is currently traded for 14.67. The entity stock is not elastic to its hype. The average elasticity to hype of competition is 0.0. Golub is forecasted not to react to the next headline, with the price staying at about the same level, and average media hype impact volatility is over 100%. The immediate return on the next news is forecasted to be very small, whereas the daily expected return is currently at 0.01%. %. The volatility of related hype on Golub Capital is about 2520.0%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 14.67. About 41.0% of the company shares are owned by institutional investors. The company has price-to-book (P/B) ratio of 0.97. Some equities with similar Price to Book (P/B) outperform the market in the long run. Golub Capital BDC has Price/Earnings To Growth (PEG) ratio of 1.51. The entity last dividend was issued on the 3rd of March 2025. The firm had 1021:1000 split on the 13th of April 2020. Given the investment horizon of 90 days the next forecasted press release will be in about 10 days. Check out Golub Capital Basic Forecasting Models to cross-verify your projections.Golub Capital Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to Golub Capital's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Golub Capital's future price movements. Getting to know how Golub Capital's peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how Golub Capital may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| TCPC | BlackRock TCP Capital | (0.38) | 7 per month | 0.00 | (0.03) | 2.31 | (3.17) | 13.25 | |
| CGBD | Carlyle Secured Lending | 0.08 | 8 per month | 0.00 | 0.06 | 1.86 | (1.87) | 5.90 | |
| TPVG | Triplepoint Venture Growth | 0.12 | 7 per month | 0.00 | 0.01 | 3.25 | (2.41) | 11.60 | |
| NMFC | New Mountain Finance | 0.02 | 9 per month | 0.00 | 0.07 | 1.26 | (1.77) | 3.48 | |
| FDUS | Fidus Investment Corp | 0.05 | 8 per month | 0.98 | 0.14 | 1.63 | (1.68) | 4.10 | |
| TSLX | Sixth Street Specialty | 0.16 | 8 per month | 0.76 | 0.20 | 1.73 | (1.39) | 4.64 | |
| WHF | WhiteHorse Finance | (0.30) | 8 per month | 0.00 | 0.05 | 1.58 | (2.48) | 7.36 |
Golub Capital Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine Golub price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Golub using various technical indicators. When you analyze Golub charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
About Golub Capital Predictive Indicators
The successful prediction of Golub Capital stock price could yield a significant profit to investors. But is it possible? The efficient-market hypothesis suggests that all published stock prices of traded companies, such as Golub Capital BDC, already reflect all publicly available information. This academic statement is a fundamental principle of many financial and investing theories used today. However, the typical investor usually disagrees with a 'textbook' version of this hypothesis and continually tries to find mispriced stocks to increase returns. We use internally-developed statistical techniques to arrive at the intrinsic value of Golub Capital based on analysis of Golub Capital hews, social hype, general headline patterns, and widely used predictive technical indicators.
We also calculate exposure to Golub Capital's market risk, different technical and fundamental indicators, relevant financial multiples and ratios, and then comparing them to Golub Capital's related companies. | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 (projected) | Dividend Yield | 0.11 | 0.1 | 0.0561 | Price To Sales Ratio | 4.2 | 4.83 | 4.58 |
Story Coverage note for Golub Capital
The number of cover stories for Golub Capital depends on current market conditions and Golub Capital's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that Golub Capital is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about Golub Capital's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
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Golub Capital Short Properties
Golub Capital's future price predictability will typically decrease when Golub Capital's long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of Golub Capital BDC often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential Golub Capital's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Golub Capital's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 201.3 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 131.2 M |
Complementary Tools for Golub Stock analysis
When running Golub Capital's price analysis, check to measure Golub Capital's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Golub Capital is operating at the current time. Most of Golub Capital's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Golub Capital's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Golub Capital's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Golub Capital to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
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