Commercial Metals Stock Price Prediction

CMC Stock  USD 48.38  0.44  0.90%   
At the present time, the relative strength momentum indicator of Commercial Metals' share price is approaching 45 suggesting that the stock is in nutural position, most likellhy at or near its support level. The main point of RSI analysis is to track how fast people are buying or selling Commercial Metals, making its price go up or down.

Momentum 45

 Impartial

 
Oversold
 
Overbought
The successful prediction of Commercial Metals' future price could yield a significant profit. We analyze noise-free headlines and recent hype associated with Commercial Metals, which may create opportunities for some arbitrage if properly timed. Below are the key fundamental drivers impacting Commercial Metals' stock price prediction:
Quarterly Earnings Growth
(0.70)
EPS Estimate Current Year
2.942
EPS Estimate Next Year
4.2908
Wall Street Target Price
57.2078
EPS Estimate Current Quarter
0.3042
Using Commercial Metals hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Commercial Metals from the perspective of Commercial Metals response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors. We also analyze overall investor sentiment towards Commercial Metals using Commercial Metals' stock options and short interest. It helps to benchmark the overall future attitude of investors towards Commercial using crowd psychology based on the activity and movement of Commercial Metals' stock price.

Commercial Metals Short Interest

A significant increase or decrease in Commercial Metals' short interest from the previous month could be a good indicator of investor sentiment towards Commercial. Short interest can provide insight into the potential direction of Commercial Metals stock and how bullish or bearish investors feel about the market overall.
200 Day MA
53.1294
Short Percent
0.0432
Short Ratio
3.01
Shares Short Prior Month
4.2 M
50 Day MA
48.6294

Commercial Metals Hype to Price Pattern

Investor biases related to Commercial Metals' public news can be used to forecast risks associated with an investment in Commercial. The trend in average sentiment can be used to explain how an investor holding Commercial can time the market purely based on public headlines and social activities around Commercial Metals. Please note that most equities that are difficult to arbitrage are affected by market sentiment the most.
PricesInvestor Sentiment100%
Some investors profit by finding stocks that are overvalued or undervalued based on market sentiment. The correlation of Commercial Metals' market sentiment to its price can help taders to make decisions based on the overall investors consensus about Commercial Metals.

Commercial Metals Implied Volatility

    
  0.45  
Commercial Metals' implied volatility exposes the market's sentiment of Commercial Metals stock's possible movements over time. However, it does not forecast the overall direction of its price. In a nutshell, if Commercial Metals' implied volatility is high, the market thinks the stock has potential for high price swings in either direction. On the other hand, the low implied volatility suggests that Commercial Metals stock will not fluctuate a lot when Commercial Metals' options are near their expiration.
The fear of missing out, i.e., FOMO, can cause potential investors in Commercial Metals to buy its stock at a price that has no basis in reality. In that case, they are not buying Commercial because the equity is a good investment, but because they need to do something to avoid the feeling of missing out. On the other hand, investors will often sell stocks at prices well below their value during bear markets because they need to stop feeling the pain of losing money.

Commercial Metals after-hype prediction price

    
  USD 48.38  
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.

Prediction based on Rule 16 of the current Commercial contract

Based on the Rule 16, the options market is currently suggesting that Commercial Metals will have an average daily up or down price movement of about 0.0281% per day over the life of the 2025-06-20 option contract. With Commercial Metals trading at USD 48.38, that is roughly USD 0.0136 . If you think that the market is fully incorporating Commercial Metals' daily price movement you should consider acquiring Commercial Metals options at the current volatility level of 0.45%. But if you have an opposite viewpoint you should avoid it and even consider selling them.
  
Check out Commercial Metals Basic Forecasting Models to cross-verify your projections.
For information on how to trade Commercial Stock refer to our How to Trade Commercial Stock guide.
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowRealHigh
43.5454.8257.02
Details
Naive
Forecast
LowNextHigh
49.7151.9054.10
Details
10 Analysts
Consensus
LowTargetHigh
55.8561.3868.13
Details
Earnings
Estimates (0)
LowProjected EPSHigh
0.670.810.92
Details

Commercial Metals After-Hype Price Prediction Density Analysis

As far as predicting the price of Commercial Metals at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in Commercial Metals or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of Commercial Metals, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
   Next price density   
JavaScript chart by amCharts 3.21.1548.0848.1648.2348.3148.3848.4548.5348.648.68 Price after next news: 48.38 0.082450.082500.082550.082600.082650.08270
       Expected price to next headline  

Commercial Metals Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility

In the context of predicting Commercial Metals' stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on Commercial Metals' historical news coverage. Commercial Metals' after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 46.18 and 50.58, respectively. We have considered Commercial Metals' daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
48.38
48.38
After-hype Price
50.58
Upside
Commercial Metals is very steady at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of Commercial Metals is based on 3 months time horizon.

Commercial Metals Stock Price Prediction Analysis

Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as Commercial Metals is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Commercial Metals backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Commercial Metals, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
Expected ReturnPeriod VolatilityHype ElasticityRelated ElasticityNews DensityRelated DensityExpected Hype
 0.00  
2.20
 0.00  
 0.00  
8 Events / Month
7 Events / Month
In about 8 days
Latest traded priceExpected after-news pricePotential return on next major newsAverage after-hype volatility
48.38
48.38
0.00 
98.65  
Notes

Commercial Metals Hype Timeline

On the 29th of March Commercial Metals is traded for 48.38. The entity stock is not elastic to its hype. The average elasticity to hype of competition is 0.0. Commercial is expected not to react to the next headline, with the price staying at about the same level, and average media hype impact volatility is about 98.65%. The immediate return on the next news is expected to be very small, whereas the daily expected return is currently at 0.0%. %. The volatility of related hype on Commercial Metals is about 509.65%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 48.38. About 94.0% of the company shares are held by institutions such as insurance companies. The company has price-to-book (P/B) ratio of 1.36. Some equities with similar Price to Book (P/B) outperform the market in the long run. Commercial Metals last dividend was issued on the 31st of March 2025. The entity had 2:1 split on the 23rd of May 2006. Considering the 90-day investment horizon the next expected press release will be in about 8 days.
Check out Commercial Metals Basic Forecasting Models to cross-verify your projections.
For information on how to trade Commercial Stock refer to our How to Trade Commercial Stock guide.
JavaScript chart by amCharts 3.21.15SID @ gurufocusSID @ zacksCommercial Metals Company Stocks Been Sliding But FundamentalsLook Decent Will The Market Correct The Share Price In The FutureZEUS @ gurufocus53.05PKX @ gurufocusMT @ zacksZEUS @ financeTX @ globenewswireSTLD @ thelincolnianonlineX @ bizjournalsZEUS @ thelincolnianonlineSID @ thelincolnianonlineRS @ independentTX @ kalkinemediaNUE @ thelincolnianonlineSID @ insidermonkeySTLD @ financeX @ financeTX @ financePKX @ zacksMT @ financeNUE @ financeRS @ investorsNUE @ finnewsnetworkPKX @ financeRS @ financeMT @ seekingalphaTX @ prnewswireFebMar
JavaScript chart by amCharts 3.21.15JanFebMar

Commercial Metals Related Hype Analysis

Having access to credible news sources related to Commercial Metals' direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Commercial Metals' future price movements. Getting to know how Commercial Metals' peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how Commercial Metals may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
Hype
Elasticity
News
Density
Semi
Deviation
Information
Ratio
Potential
Upside
Value
At Risk
Maximum
Drawdown
ZEUSOlympic Steel 0.85 8 per month 0.00 (0.01) 3.32 (4.18) 13.58 
SCHNSCHNITZER STEEL INDUSTRIES 0.00 0 per month 0.00  0.00  0.00  0.00  0.00 
STLDSteel Dynamics 2.15 10 per month 1.78  0.08  4.13 (3.16) 10.47 
NUENucor Corp(1.55)8 per month 2.02  0.10  3.99 (3.37) 11.36 
USAPUniversal Stainless Alloy 0.00 0 per month 0.00  0.00  0.00  0.00  0.00 
PKXPOSCO Holdings 0.46 10 per month 2.23  0.1  4.76 (3.76) 14.35 
OUTKYOutokumpu Oyj ADR 0.00 0 per month 1.70  0.15  8.03 (5.00) 14.99 
XUnited States Steel 1.40 10 per month 2.28  0.18  5.46 (4.07) 16.06 
RSReliance Steel Aluminum 1.82 8 per month 1.14  0.16  2.87 (2.20) 5.82 
MTArcelorMittal SA ADR(0.12)9 per month 1.81  0.16  6.03 (3.21) 16.40 
SIDCompanhia Siderurgica Nacional(0.04)8 per month 2.40  0.08  7.19 (4.49) 16.53 
TXTernium SA ADR 0.21 10 per month 1.37  0.12  2.58 (2.71) 7.72 

Commercial Metals Additional Predictive Modules

Most predictive techniques to examine Commercial price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Commercial using various technical indicators. When you analyze Commercial charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.

About Commercial Metals Predictive Indicators

The successful prediction of Commercial Metals stock price could yield a significant profit to investors. But is it possible? The efficient-market hypothesis suggests that all published stock prices of traded companies, such as Commercial Metals, already reflect all publicly available information. This academic statement is a fundamental principle of many financial and investing theories used today. However, the typical investor usually disagrees with a 'textbook' version of this hypothesis and continually tries to find mispriced stocks to increase returns. We use internally-developed statistical techniques to arrive at the intrinsic value of Commercial Metals based on analysis of Commercial Metals hews, social hype, general headline patterns, and widely used predictive technical indicators.
We also calculate exposure to Commercial Metals's market risk, different technical and fundamental indicators, relevant financial multiples and ratios, and then comparing them to Commercial Metals's related companies.
 2022 2023 2025 (projected)
Dividend Yield0.01140.01270.0166
Price To Sales Ratio0.750.780.74

Story Coverage note for Commercial Metals

The number of cover stories for Commercial Metals depends on current market conditions and Commercial Metals' risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that Commercial Metals is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about Commercial Metals' long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.

Commercial Metals Short Properties

Commercial Metals' future price predictability will typically decrease when Commercial Metals' long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of Commercial Metals often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential Commercial Metals' investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Commercial Metals' indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
Common Stock Shares Outstanding117.2 M
Cash And Short Term Investments857.9 M

Complementary Tools for Commercial Stock analysis

When running Commercial Metals' price analysis, check to measure Commercial Metals' market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Commercial Metals is operating at the current time. Most of Commercial Metals' value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Commercial Metals' future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Commercial Metals' price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Commercial Metals to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
Pair Correlation
Compare performance and examine fundamental relationship between any two equity instruments
Equity Search
Search for actively traded equities including funds and ETFs from over 30 global markets
Equity Analysis
Research over 250,000 global equities including funds, stocks and ETFs to find investment opportunities
Idea Analyzer
Analyze all characteristics, volatility and risk-adjusted return of Macroaxis ideas
Crypto Correlations
Use cryptocurrency correlation module to diversify your cryptocurrency portfolio across multiple coins
Share Portfolio
Track or share privately all of your investments from the convenience of any device
Stock Screener
Find equities using a custom stock filter or screen asymmetry in trading patterns, price, volume, or investment outlook.
Headlines Timeline
Stay connected to all market stories and filter out noise. Drill down to analyze hype elasticity
Idea Breakdown
Analyze constituents of all Macroaxis ideas. Macroaxis investment ideas are predefined, sector-focused investing themes

Discover investing ideas

Utilize additional investing modules