Commercial Metals Stock Price Prediction
| CMC Stock | USD 61.37 0.78 1.26% |
Oversold Vs Overbought
58
Oversold | Overbought |
Quarterly Earnings Growth (0.43) | EPS Estimate Current Year 4.35 | EPS Estimate Next Year 4.55 | Wall Street Target Price 63 | EPS Estimate Current Quarter 0.89 |
Using Commercial Metals hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Commercial Metals from the perspective of Commercial Metals response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors.
Commercial Metals Hype to Price Pattern
Investor biases related to Commercial Metals' public news can be used to forecast risks associated with an investment in Commercial. The trend in average sentiment can be used to explain how an investor holding Commercial can time the market purely based on public headlines and social activities around Commercial Metals. Please note that most equities that are difficult to arbitrage are affected by market sentiment the most.
Some investors profit by finding stocks that are overvalued or undervalued based on market sentiment. The correlation of Commercial Metals' market sentiment to its price can help taders to make decisions based on the overall investors consensus about Commercial Metals.
The fear of missing out, i.e., FOMO, can cause potential investors in Commercial Metals to buy its stock at a price that has no basis in reality. In that case, they are not buying Commercial because the equity is a good investment, but because they need to do something to avoid the feeling of missing out. On the other hand, investors will often sell stocks at prices well below their value during bear markets because they need to stop feeling the pain of losing money.
Commercial Metals after-hype prediction price | USD 61.37 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Commercial |
Commercial Metals After-Hype Price Prediction Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of Commercial Metals at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in Commercial Metals or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of Commercial Metals, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
Commercial Metals Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting Commercial Metals' stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on Commercial Metals' historical news coverage. Commercial Metals' after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 58.84 and 63.90, respectively. We have considered Commercial Metals' daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
Commercial Metals is very steady at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of Commercial Metals is based on 3 months time horizon.
Commercial Metals Stock Price Prediction Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as Commercial Metals is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Commercial Metals backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Commercial Metals, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.25 | 2.53 | 0.47 | 0.10 | 7 Events / Month | 8 Events / Month | In about 7 days |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | ||
61.37 | 61.37 | 0.00 |
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Commercial Metals Hype Timeline
On the 28th of November Commercial Metals is traded for 61.37. The entity has historical hype elasticity of 0.47, and average elasticity to hype of competition of -0.1. Commercial is expected not to react to the next headline, with the price staying at about the same level, and average media hype impact volatility is about 135.29%. The immediate return on the next news is expected to be very small, whereas the daily expected return is currently at 0.25%. %. The volatility of related hype on Commercial Metals is about 655.18%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 61.27. About 90.0% of the company shares are held by institutions such as insurance companies. The company has price-to-book (P/B) ratio of 1.65. Some equities with similar Price to Book (P/B) outperform the market in the long run. Commercial Metals last dividend was issued on the 31st of October 2024. The entity had 2:1 split on the 23rd of May 2006. Considering the 90-day investment horizon the next expected press release will be in about 7 days. Check out Commercial Metals Basic Forecasting Models to cross-verify your projections.Commercial Metals Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to Commercial Metals' direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Commercial Metals' future price movements. Getting to know how Commercial Metals' peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how Commercial Metals may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| ZEUS | Olympic Steel | 0.25 | 6 per month | 2.57 | (0) | 4.04 | (4.04) | 14.90 | |
| SCHN | SCHNITZER STEEL INDUSTRIES | (0.91) | 3 per month | 2.05 | (0) | 3.12 | (3.33) | 13.80 | |
| STLD | Steel Dynamics | (1.96) | 11 per month | 1.67 | 0.07 | 4.00 | (2.79) | 17.89 | |
| NUE | Nucor Corp | (1.31) | 12 per month | 2.26 | (0.01) | 2.50 | (3.82) | 19.91 | |
| TMST | TMST Old | 0.00 | 0 per month | 1.46 | 0.10 | 4.81 | (2.47) | 13.11 | |
| USAP | Universal Stainless Alloy | 0.05 | 8 per month | 2.51 | (0.01) | 5.09 | (4.35) | 13.88 | |
| PKX | POSCO Holdings | 0.50 | 8 per month | 0.00 | (0.15) | 4.63 | (4.94) | 10.53 | |
| OUTKY | Outokumpu Oyj ADR | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.00 | (0.19) | 0.56 | (1.82) | 9.38 | |
| X | United States Steel | (2.49) | 13 per month | 3.68 | 0.01 | 5.55 | (5.48) | 20.57 | |
| RS | Reliance Steel Aluminum | 1.36 | 9 per month | 1.45 | 0.05 | 3.26 | (2.16) | 14.02 | |
| MT | ArcelorMittal SA ADR | (0.46) | 10 per month | 2.02 | (0.01) | 3.83 | (3.37) | 9.08 | |
| SID | Companhia Siderurgica Nacional | 0.01 | 8 per month | 0.00 | (0.09) | 4.17 | (5.16) | 14.95 | |
| TX | Ternium SA ADR | (0.06) | 11 per month | 0.00 | (0.07) | 2.94 | (3.01) | 9.40 |
Commercial Metals Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine Commercial price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Commercial using various technical indicators. When you analyze Commercial charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
About Commercial Metals Predictive Indicators
The successful prediction of Commercial Metals stock price could yield a significant profit to investors. But is it possible? The efficient-market hypothesis suggests that all published stock prices of traded companies, such as Commercial Metals, already reflect all publicly available information. This academic statement is a fundamental principle of many financial and investing theories used today. However, the typical investor usually disagrees with a 'textbook' version of this hypothesis and continually tries to find mispriced stocks to increase returns. We use internally-developed statistical techniques to arrive at the intrinsic value of Commercial Metals based on analysis of Commercial Metals hews, social hype, general headline patterns, and widely used predictive technical indicators.
We also calculate exposure to Commercial Metals's market risk, different technical and fundamental indicators, relevant financial multiples and ratios, and then comparing them to Commercial Metals's related companies. | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 (projected) | Dividend Yield | 0.0139 | 0.0114 | 0.0127 | 0.0166 | Price To Sales Ratio | 0.55 | 0.75 | 0.78 | 0.82 |
Story Coverage note for Commercial Metals
The number of cover stories for Commercial Metals depends on current market conditions and Commercial Metals' risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that Commercial Metals is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about Commercial Metals' long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
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Commercial Metals Short Properties
Commercial Metals' future price predictability will typically decrease when Commercial Metals' long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of Commercial Metals often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential Commercial Metals' investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Commercial Metals' indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 117.2 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 857.9 M |
Complementary Tools for Commercial Stock analysis
When running Commercial Metals' price analysis, check to measure Commercial Metals' market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Commercial Metals is operating at the current time. Most of Commercial Metals' value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Commercial Metals' future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Commercial Metals' price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Commercial Metals to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
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