Business First Bancshares Stock Price Prediction
| BFST Stock | USD 26.08 0.10 0.38% |
Momentum 55
Impartial
Oversold | Overbought |
Quarterly Earnings Growth (0.11) | EPS Estimate Next Quarter 0.555 | EPS Estimate Current Year 2.6875 | EPS Estimate Next Year 2.988 | Wall Street Target Price 33.1 |
Using Business First hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Business First Bancshares from the perspective of Business First response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors. We also analyze overall investor sentiment towards Business First using Business First's stock options and short interest. It helps to benchmark the overall future attitude of investors towards Business using crowd psychology based on the activity and movement of Business First's stock price.
Business First Implied Volatility | 1.01 |
Business First's implied volatility exposes the market's sentiment of Business First Bancshares stock's possible movements over time. However, it does not forecast the overall direction of its price. In a nutshell, if Business First's implied volatility is high, the market thinks the stock has potential for high price swings in either direction. On the other hand, the low implied volatility suggests that Business First stock will not fluctuate a lot when Business First's options are near their expiration.
The fear of missing out, i.e., FOMO, can cause potential investors in Business First to buy its stock at a price that has no basis in reality. In that case, they are not buying Business because the equity is a good investment, but because they need to do something to avoid the feeling of missing out. On the other hand, investors will often sell stocks at prices well below their value during bear markets because they need to stop feeling the pain of losing money.
Business First after-hype prediction price | USD 26.1 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Prediction based on Rule 16 of the current Business contract
Based on the Rule 16, the options market is currently suggesting that Business First Bancshares will have an average daily up or down price movement of about 0.0631% per day over the life of the 2025-04-17 option contract. With Business First trading at USD 26.08, that is roughly USD 0.0165 . If you think that the market is fully incorporating Business First's daily price movement you should consider acquiring Business First Bancshares options at the current volatility level of 1.01%. But if you have an opposite viewpoint you should avoid it and even consider selling them.
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Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Business First's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Business First After-Hype Price Prediction Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of Business First at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in Business First or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of Business First, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
Business First Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting Business First's stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on Business First's historical news coverage. Business First's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 24.07 and 28.13, respectively. We have considered Business First's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
Business First is very steady at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of Business First Bancshares is based on 3 months time horizon.
Business First Stock Price Prediction Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as Business First is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Business First backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Business First, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.12 | 2.03 | 0.02 | 0.02 | 7 Events / Month | 8 Events / Month | In about 7 days |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | ||
26.08 | 26.10 | 0.08 |
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Business First Hype Timeline
Business First Bancshares is currently traded for 26.08. The entity has historical hype elasticity of 0.02, and average elasticity to hype of competition of 0.02. Business is projected to increase in value after the next headline, with the price projected to jump to 26.1 or above. The average volatility of media hype impact on the company the price is over 100%. The price appreciation on the next news is projected to be 0.08%, whereas the daily expected return is currently at -0.12%. The volatility of related hype on Business First is about 1059.13%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 26.10. The company reported the previous year's revenue of 414.76 M. Net Income was 71.04 M with profit before overhead, payroll, taxes, and interest of 260.7 M. Given the investment horizon of 90 days the next projected press release will be in about 7 days. Check out Business First Basic Forecasting Models to cross-verify your projections.Business First Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to Business First's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Business First's future price movements. Getting to know how Business First's peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how Business First may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| FCCO | First Community | (0.21) | 7 per month | 1.55 | 0.02 | 3.02 | (2.05) | 9.38 | |
| CWBC | Community West Bancshares | (0.01) | 10 per month | 0.00 | (0.1) | 2.45 | (2.17) | 6.94 | |
| FFNW | First Financial Northwest | 0.09 | 5 per month | 0.00 | (0.08) | 1.08 | (1.69) | 4.22 | |
| FNWB | First Northwest Bancorp | 0.15 | 7 per month | 1.47 | 0.03 | 3.00 | (2.76) | 9.99 | |
| HFBL | Home Federal Bancorp | 0.94 | 7 per month | 1.87 | 0.07 | 6.19 | (4.53) | 13.83 | |
| HMNF | HMN Financial | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | |
| FCAP | First Capital | 1.17 | 6 per month | 1.91 | 0.07 | 3.27 | (3.81) | 11.75 | |
| ISTR | Investar Holding Corp | 0.43 | 4 per month | 0.00 | (0.19) | 2.24 | (3.06) | 7.38 | |
| FNWD | Finward Bancorp | (0.04) | 6 per month | 0.00 | (0.19) | 1.36 | (1.97) | 8.51 | |
| CULL | Cullman Bancorp | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | |
| LNKB | LINKBANCORP | (0.22) | 5 per month | 1.67 | 0.05 | 3.47 | (2.93) | 8.50 | |
| HVBC | HV Bancorp | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
Business First Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine Business price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Business using various technical indicators. When you analyze Business charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
About Business First Predictive Indicators
The successful prediction of Business First stock price could yield a significant profit to investors. But is it possible? The efficient-market hypothesis suggests that all published stock prices of traded companies, such as Business First Bancshares, already reflect all publicly available information. This academic statement is a fundamental principle of many financial and investing theories used today. However, the typical investor usually disagrees with a 'textbook' version of this hypothesis and continually tries to find mispriced stocks to increase returns. We use internally-developed statistical techniques to arrive at the intrinsic value of Business First based on analysis of Business First hews, social hype, general headline patterns, and widely used predictive technical indicators.
We also calculate exposure to Business First's market risk, different technical and fundamental indicators, relevant financial multiples and ratios, and then comparing them to Business First's related companies. | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 (projected) | PTB Ratio | 0.86 | 0.96 | 1.1 | 1.53 | Price To Sales Ratio | 2.2 | 2.5 | 1.57 | 1.49 |
Story Coverage note for Business First
The number of cover stories for Business First depends on current market conditions and Business First's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that Business First is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about Business First's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
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Business First Short Properties
Business First's future price predictability will typically decrease when Business First's long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of Business First Bancshares often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential Business First's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Business First's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 25.4 M |
Additional Tools for Business Stock Analysis
When running Business First's price analysis, check to measure Business First's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Business First is operating at the current time. Most of Business First's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Business First's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Business First's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Business First to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.