Amerisafe Stock Price Prediction
| AMSF Stock | USD 51.20 0.43 0.85% |
Momentum 62
Buy Extended
Oversold | Overbought |
Quarterly Earnings Growth (0.32) | EPS Estimate Next Quarter 0.56 | EPS Estimate Current Year 2.275 | EPS Estimate Next Year 2.15 | Wall Street Target Price 56.3333 |
Using AMERISAFE hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of AMERISAFE from the perspective of AMERISAFE response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors. We also analyze overall investor sentiment towards AMERISAFE using AMERISAFE's stock options and short interest. It helps to benchmark the overall future attitude of investors towards AMERISAFE using crowd psychology based on the activity and movement of AMERISAFE's stock price.
AMERISAFE Implied Volatility | 0.77 |
AMERISAFE's implied volatility exposes the market's sentiment of AMERISAFE stock's possible movements over time. However, it does not forecast the overall direction of its price. In a nutshell, if AMERISAFE's implied volatility is high, the market thinks the stock has potential for high price swings in either direction. On the other hand, the low implied volatility suggests that AMERISAFE stock will not fluctuate a lot when AMERISAFE's options are near their expiration.
The fear of missing out, i.e., FOMO, can cause potential investors in AMERISAFE to buy its stock at a price that has no basis in reality. In that case, they are not buying AMERISAFE because the equity is a good investment, but because they need to do something to avoid the feeling of missing out. On the other hand, investors will often sell stocks at prices well below their value during bear markets because they need to stop feeling the pain of losing money.
AMERISAFE after-hype prediction price | USD 51.18 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Prediction based on Rule 16 of the current AMERISAFE contract
Based on the Rule 16, the options market is currently suggesting that AMERISAFE will have an average daily up or down price movement of about 0.0481% per day over the life of the 2025-04-17 option contract. With AMERISAFE trading at USD 51.2, that is roughly USD 0.0246 . If you think that the market is fully incorporating AMERISAFE's daily price movement you should consider acquiring AMERISAFE options at the current volatility level of 0.77%. But if you have an opposite viewpoint you should avoid it and even consider selling them.
AMERISAFE |
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of AMERISAFE's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
AMERISAFE After-Hype Price Prediction Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of AMERISAFE at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in AMERISAFE or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of AMERISAFE, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
AMERISAFE Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting AMERISAFE's stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on AMERISAFE's historical news coverage. AMERISAFE's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 50.03 and 52.33, respectively. We have considered AMERISAFE's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
AMERISAFE is very steady at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of AMERISAFE is based on 3 months time horizon.
AMERISAFE Stock Price Prediction Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as AMERISAFE is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading AMERISAFE backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with AMERISAFE, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.05 | 1.15 | 0.02 | 0.00 | 6 Events / Month | 7 Events / Month | In about 6 days |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | ||
51.20 | 51.18 | 0.04 |
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AMERISAFE Hype Timeline
AMERISAFE is presently traded for 51.20. The entity has historical hype elasticity of -0.02, and average elasticity to hype of competition of 0.0. AMERISAFE is projected to decline in value after the next headline, with the price expected to drop to 51.18. The average volatility of media hype impact on the company price is over 100%. The price decrease on the next news is expected to be -0.04%, whereas the daily expected return is presently at -0.05%. The volatility of related hype on AMERISAFE is about 2524.39%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 51.20. About 98.0% of the company shares are held by institutions such as insurance companies. The book value of AMERISAFE was presently reported as 13.52. The company has Price/Earnings To Growth (PEG) ratio of 1.88. AMERISAFE last dividend was issued on the 7th of March 2025. Given the investment horizon of 90 days the next projected press release will be in about 6 days. Check out AMERISAFE Basic Forecasting Models to cross-verify your projections.AMERISAFE Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to AMERISAFE's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict AMERISAFE's future price movements. Getting to know how AMERISAFE's peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how AMERISAFE may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| AGO | Assured Guaranty | 0.26 | 7 per month | 0.00 | 0.03 | 2.10 | (3.07) | 7.84 | |
| MBI | MBIA Inc | 0.09 | 8 per month | 0.00 | (0.03) | 5.17 | (8.90) | 28.95 | |
| ACT | Enact Holdings | 0.39 | 9 per month | 0.00 | 0.03 | 1.52 | (2.28) | 4.71 | |
| ICCH | ICC Holdings | 0.02 | 5 per month | 0.55 | 0.17 | 1.18 | (0.64) | 4.57 | |
| JRVR | James River Group | 0.09 | 6 per month | 0.00 | (0) | 4.31 | (3.40) | 35.31 | |
| ESNT | Essent Group | 0.08 | 5 per month | 0.00 | 0.06 | 1.87 | (2.56) | 5.90 | |
| ITIC | Investors Title | (2.56) | 7 per month | 0.00 | (0.02) | 1.90 | (2.72) | 8.45 | |
| EIG | Employers Holdings | 1.29 | 6 per month | 0.00 | 0.02 | 1.97 | (2.27) | 5.62 | |
| NMIH | NMI Holdings | (0.07) | 7 per month | 0.00 | (0.03) | 2.11 | (3.52) | 7.42 |
AMERISAFE Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine AMERISAFE price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for AMERISAFE using various technical indicators. When you analyze AMERISAFE charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
About AMERISAFE Predictive Indicators
The successful prediction of AMERISAFE stock price could yield a significant profit to investors. But is it possible? The efficient-market hypothesis suggests that all published stock prices of traded companies, such as AMERISAFE, already reflect all publicly available information. This academic statement is a fundamental principle of many financial and investing theories used today. However, the typical investor usually disagrees with a 'textbook' version of this hypothesis and continually tries to find mispriced stocks to increase returns. We use internally-developed statistical techniques to arrive at the intrinsic value of AMERISAFE based on analysis of AMERISAFE hews, social hype, general headline patterns, and widely used predictive technical indicators.
We also calculate exposure to AMERISAFE's market risk, different technical and fundamental indicators, relevant financial multiples and ratios, and then comparing them to AMERISAFE's related companies. | 2022 | 2024 (projected) | Dividend Yield | 0.1 | 0.0869 | Price To Sales Ratio | 3.39 | 3.18 |
Story Coverage note for AMERISAFE
The number of cover stories for AMERISAFE depends on current market conditions and AMERISAFE's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that AMERISAFE is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about AMERISAFE's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
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Latest Perspective From Macroaxis
AMERISAFE Short Properties
AMERISAFE's future price predictability will typically decrease when AMERISAFE's long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of AMERISAFE often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential AMERISAFE's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. AMERISAFE's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 19.2 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 351.8 M |
Complementary Tools for AMERISAFE Stock analysis
When running AMERISAFE's price analysis, check to measure AMERISAFE's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy AMERISAFE is operating at the current time. Most of AMERISAFE's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of AMERISAFE's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move AMERISAFE's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of AMERISAFE to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
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