Amerisafe Stock Buy Hold or Sell Recommendation
| AMSF Stock | USD 51.20 0.43 0.85% |
Given the investment horizon of 90 days and your above-average risk tolerance, our recommendation regarding AMERISAFE is 'Hold'. Macroaxis provides AMERISAFE buy-hold-or-sell recommendation only in the context of selected investment horizon and investor attitude towards risk assumed by holding AMSF positions.
Check out AMERISAFE Analyst Recommendation to compare Macroaxis Buy or Sell Recommendation with the current analyst consensus. To check ratings for multiple equity instruments, please use the Instant Ratings tool. For more detail on how to invest in AMERISAFE Stock please use our How to Invest in AMERISAFE guide. Note, we conduct extensive research on individual companies such as AMERISAFE and provide practical buy, sell, or hold advice based on investors' constraints. AMERISAFE. Also, note that the market value of any company could be closely tied with the direction of predictive economic indicators such as signals in state.
AMERISAFE |
Execute AMERISAFE Buy or Sell Advice
The AMERISAFE recommendation should be used to complement the buy-or-sell advice compiled from the current analysts' consensus on AMERISAFE. Macroaxis does not own or have any residual interests in AMERISAFE or other equities on which the buy-or-sell advice is provided. Please provide your input below to execute AMERISAFE's advice using the current market data and latest reported fundamentals.
Time Horizon
Risk Tolerance
 |  |
Hold
Market Performance | Very Weak | Details | |
Volatility | Very steady | Details | |
Hype Condition | Low key | Details | |
Current Valuation | Undervalued | Details | |
Odds Of Distress | Low | Details | |
Economic Sensitivity | Slowly supersedes the market | Details | |
Investor Sentiment | Impartial | Details | |
Analyst Consensus | Buy | Details | |
Financial Strenth (F Score) | Healthy | Details | |
Financial Leverage | Not Rated | Details | |
Reporting Quality (M-Score) | Possible Manipulator | Details |
AMERISAFE Trading Alerts and Improvement Suggestions
| AMERISAFE generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days | |
| Over 98.0% of the company shares are held by institutions such as insurance companies | |
| Latest headline from finance.yahoo.com: AMERISAFE Inc Q4 2024 Earnings Call Highlights Strong Premium Growth and Robust ROE ... |
AMERISAFE Returns Distribution Density
The distribution of AMERISAFE's historical returns is an attempt to chart the uncertainty of AMERISAFE's future price movements. The chart of the probability distribution of AMERISAFE daily returns describes the distribution of returns around its average expected value. We use AMERISAFE price's Value At Risk and its Upside Potential as a relative measure of the distribution. The graph of the distribution of AMERISAFE returns is essential to provide solid investment advice for AMERISAFE.
| Mean Return | -0.09 | Value At Risk | -1.77 | Potential Upside | 1.94 | Standard Deviation | 1.19 |
Return Density |
| Distribution |
Investment risk management requires an estimate of the probability of extreme price changes. Therefore, the correct representation of the distribution of AMERISAFE historical returns presented in an easy-to-digest graphical form helps investors and money managers understand the risk-reward trade-off of different investement strategies.
AMERISAFE Stock Institutional Investors
| Shares | M&g Plc | 2024-12-31 | 435.4 K | Auto-owners Insurance Co | 2024-12-31 | 426.9 K | Public Employees Retirt Assn Of Colorado | 2024-12-31 | 314.6 K | Royce & Associates, Lp | 2024-12-31 | 305.4 K | Palisade Capital Management Llc | 2024-12-31 | 280 K | Northern Trust Corp | 2024-12-31 | 206.7 K | Bank Of New York Mellon Corp | 2024-12-31 | 189.1 K | Newsouth Capital Management Inc | 2024-12-31 | 187.1 K | Eagle Asset Management, Inc. | 2024-09-30 | 186.9 K | Blackrock Inc | 2024-12-31 | 3.5 M | Neuberger Berman Group Llc | 2024-12-31 | 1.8 M |
AMERISAFE Cash Flow Accounts
| 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 (projected) | ||
| Change In Cash | 17.9M | 9.0M | (9.3M) | (22.8M) | 5.4M | 5.6M | |
| Free Cash Flow | 62.5M | 36.7M | 26.1M | 29.3M | 23.4M | 22.2M | |
| Depreciation | 1.0M | 1.0M | 1.3M | 1.4M | 1.1M | 1.2M | |
| Other Non Cash Items | 2.9M | (5.2M) | 11.4M | (4.8M) | (36.7M) | (34.8M) | |
| Capital Expenditures | 921K | 1.3M | 2.1M | 553K | 840K | 1.1M | |
| Net Income | 86.6M | 65.8M | 55.6M | 62.1M | 55.4M | 51.7M | |
| End Period Cash Flow | 61.8M | 70.7M | 61.5M | 38.7M | 44.0M | 63.1M | |
| Change To Inventory | (37.6M) | (24.0M) | (32.0M) | (19.1M) | (17.2M) | (16.3M) | |
| Dividends Paid | 88.8M | 99.9M | 100.4M | 93.3M | 85.4M | 63.7M | |
| Investments | 55.6M | 72.2M | 69.0M | 53.6M | 72.4M | 76.0M | |
| Change Receivables | 21.1M | (8.7M) | 8.2M | 8.3M | 9.5M | 10.0M | |
| Change To Netincome | 3.2M | 3.9M | 1.9M | (2.1M) | (2.4M) | (2.3M) |
AMERISAFE Greeks
Most traded equities are subject to two types of risk - systematic (i.e., market) and unsystematic (i.e., nonmarket or company-specific) risk. Unsystematic risk is the risk that events specific to AMERISAFE or Insurance sector will adversely affect the stock's price. This type of risk can be diversified away by owning several different stocks in different industries whose stock prices have shown a small correlation to each other. On the other hand, systematic risk is the risk that AMERISAFE's price will be affected by overall stock market movements and cannot be diversified away. So, no matter how many positions you have, you cannot eliminate market risk. However, you can measure a AMERISAFE stock's historical response to market movements and buy it if you are comfortable with its volatility direction. Beta and standard deviation are two commonly used measures to help you make the right decision.
α | Alpha over Dow Jones | -0.06 | |
β | Beta against Dow Jones | 0.34 | |
σ | Overall volatility | 1.15 | |
Ir | Information ratio | 0.01 |
AMERISAFE Volatility Alert
AMERISAFE exhibits very low volatility with skewness of 0.25 and kurtosis of 0.18. Understanding different market volatility trends often help investors to time the market. Properly using volatility indicators enable traders to measure AMERISAFE's stock risk against market volatility during both bullish and bearish trends. The higher level of volatility that comes with bear markets can directly impact AMERISAFE's stock price while adding stress to investors as they watch their shares' value plummet. This usually forces investors to rebalance their portfolios by buying different financial instruments as prices fall.AMERISAFE Fundamentals Vs Peers
Comparing AMERISAFE's fundamentals to the average values of its peers is one of the most widely used and accepted methods of equity analyses. It helps to analyze AMERISAFE's direct or indirect competition across all of the common fundamentals between AMERISAFE and the related equities. This way, we can detect undervalued stocks with similar characteristics as AMERISAFE or determine the stocks which would be an excellent addition to an existing portfolio. Peer analysis of AMERISAFE's fundamental indicators could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing AMERISAFE by comparing valuation metrics with those of similar companies.
| Better Than Average | Worse Than Average | Compare AMERISAFE to competition |
| Fundamentals | AMERISAFE | Peer Average |
| Return On Equity | 0.2 | -0.31 |
| Return On Asset | 0.0362 | -0.14 |
| Profit Margin | 0.18 % | (1.27) % |
| Operating Margin | 0.23 % | (5.51) % |
| Current Valuation | 931.52 M | 16.62 B |
| Shares Outstanding | 19.05 M | 571.82 M |
| Shares Owned By Insiders | 1.65 % | 10.09 % |
| Shares Owned By Institutions | 98.35 % | 39.21 % |
| Number Of Shares Shorted | 212.51 K | 4.71 M |
| Price To Earning | 11.75 X | 28.72 X |
| Price To Book | 3.79 X | 9.51 X |
| Price To Sales | 3.16 X | 11.42 X |
| Revenue | 309.04 M | 9.43 B |
| Gross Profit | 100.86 M | 27.38 B |
| EBITDA | 70.15 M | 3.9 B |
| Net Income | 55.44 M | 570.98 M |
| Cash And Equivalents | 90.95 M | 2.7 B |
| Cash Per Share | 4.74 X | 5.01 X |
| Total Debt | 900.45 M | 5.32 B |
| Debt To Equity | 0 % | 48.70 % |
| Current Ratio | 2.70 X | 2.16 X |
| Book Value Per Share | 13.52 X | 1.93 K |
| Cash Flow From Operations | 24.19 M | 971.22 M |
| Short Ratio | 2.03 X | 4.00 X |
| Earnings Per Share | 2.89 X | 3.12 X |
| Price To Earnings To Growth | 1.88 X | 4.89 X |
| Target Price | 56.33 | |
| Number Of Employees | 362 | 18.84 K |
| Beta | 0.32 | -0.15 |
| Market Capitalization | 975.38 M | 19.03 B |
| Total Asset | 1.16 B | 29.47 B |
| Retained Earnings | 84.11 M | 9.33 B |
| Annual Yield | 0.03 % |
Note: Disposition of 934 shares by Raymond Wise of AMERISAFE at 47.0 subject to Rule 16b-3 [view details]
AMERISAFE Market Momentum
Traders often use several daily momentume indicators to supplement a more traditional technical analysis when analyzing securities such as AMERISAFE . With many different options, investors must choose the best indicators for them and familiarize themselves with how they work. We suggest combining traditional momentum indicators with more near-term forms of technical analysis such as Accumulation Distribution or Daily Balance Of Power. With their quantitative nature, daily value technical indicators can also be incorporated into your automated trading systems.
About AMERISAFE Buy or Sell Advice
When is the right time to buy or sell AMERISAFE? Buying financial instruments such as AMERISAFE Stock isn't very hard. However, what challenging for most investors is doing it at the right time to beat the market. Proper market timing is something most people cannot do without sophisticated tools, which help to isolate the right opportunities. Macroaxis provides hands-on modules to deliver winning trades and diversify your portfolios on a daily basis. Most of our advising modules are very easy to use and apply.
Please read more on our stock advisor page.
Use Investing Ideas to Build Portfolios
In addition to having AMERISAFE in your portfolios, you can quickly add positions using our predefined set of ideas and optimize them against your very unique investing style. A single investing idea is a collection of funds, stocks, ETFs, or cryptocurrencies that are programmatically selected from a pull of investment themes. After you determine your investment opportunity, you can then find an optimal portfolio that will maximize potential returns on the chosen idea or minimize its exposure to market volatility.Did You Try This Idea?
Run Utilities Thematic Idea Now
Utilities
Highly leveraged corporations that deliver utilities such as power, water or gas to public or business. The Utilities theme has 30 constituents at this time.
You can either use a buy-and-hold strategy to lock in the entire theme or actively trade it to take advantage of the short-term price volatility of individual constituents. Macroaxis can help you discover thousands of investment opportunities in different asset classes. In addition, you can partner with us for reliable portfolio optimization as you plan to utilize Utilities Theme or any other thematic opportunities.
| View All Next | Launch |
Check out AMERISAFE Analyst Recommendation to compare Macroaxis Buy or Sell Recommendation with the current analyst consensus. To check ratings for multiple equity instruments, please use the Instant Ratings tool. For more detail on how to invest in AMERISAFE Stock please use our How to Invest in AMERISAFE guide.You can also try the Volatility Analysis module to get historical volatility and risk analysis based on latest market data.
Is Property & Casualty Insurance space expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of AMERISAFE. If investors know AMERISAFE will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about AMERISAFE listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth (0.32) | Dividend Share 1.48 | Earnings Share 2.89 | Revenue Per Share | Quarterly Revenue Growth (0.08) |
The market value of AMERISAFE is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of AMERISAFE that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of AMERISAFE's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is AMERISAFE's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because AMERISAFE's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect AMERISAFE's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between AMERISAFE's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if AMERISAFE is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, AMERISAFE's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.