Argan Inc Stock Price Prediction
| AGX Stock | USD 120.00 6.50 5.73% |
Momentum 35
Sell Extended
Oversold | Overbought |
Quarterly Earnings Growth 4 | EPS Estimate Current Year 5.055 | EPS Estimate Next Year 5.35 | Wall Street Target Price 150 | EPS Estimate Current Quarter 1.26 |
Using Argan hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Argan Inc from the perspective of Argan response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors. We also analyze overall investor sentiment towards Argan using Argan's stock options and short interest. It helps to benchmark the overall future attitude of investors towards Argan using crowd psychology based on the activity and movement of Argan's stock price.
Argan Short Interest
An investor who is long Argan may also wish to track short interest. As short interest increases, investors should be becoming more worried about Argan and may potentially protect profits, hedge Argan with its derivative instruments, or be ready for some potential downside.
200 Day MA 112.8238 | Short Percent 0.0523 | Short Ratio 1.32 | Shares Short Prior Month 732.7 K | 50 Day MA 142.979 |
Argan Inc Hype to Price Pattern
Investor biases related to Argan's public news can be used to forecast risks associated with an investment in Argan. The trend in average sentiment can be used to explain how an investor holding Argan can time the market purely based on public headlines and social activities around Argan Inc. Please note that most equities that are difficult to arbitrage are affected by market sentiment the most.
Some investors profit by finding stocks that are overvalued or undervalued based on market sentiment. The correlation of Argan's market sentiment to its price can help taders to make decisions based on the overall investors consensus about Argan.
Argan Implied Volatility | 1.03 |
Argan's implied volatility exposes the market's sentiment of Argan Inc stock's possible movements over time. However, it does not forecast the overall direction of its price. In a nutshell, if Argan's implied volatility is high, the market thinks the stock has potential for high price swings in either direction. On the other hand, the low implied volatility suggests that Argan stock will not fluctuate a lot when Argan's options are near their expiration.
The fear of missing out, i.e., FOMO, can cause potential investors in Argan to buy its stock at a price that has no basis in reality. In that case, they are not buying Argan because the equity is a good investment, but because they need to do something to avoid the feeling of missing out. On the other hand, investors will often sell stocks at prices well below their value during bear markets because they need to stop feeling the pain of losing money.
Argan after-hype prediction price | USD 118.42 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Prediction based on Rule 16 of the current Argan contract
Based on the Rule 16, the options market is currently suggesting that Argan Inc will have an average daily up or down price movement of about 0.0644% per day over the life of the 2025-04-17 option contract. With Argan trading at USD 120.0, that is roughly USD 0.0773 . If you think that the market is fully incorporating Argan's daily price movement you should consider acquiring Argan Inc options at the current volatility level of 1.03%. But if you have an opposite viewpoint you should avoid it and even consider selling them.
Argan |
Argan After-Hype Price Prediction Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of Argan at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in Argan or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of Argan, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
Argan Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting Argan's stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on Argan's historical news coverage. Argan's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 113.59 and 123.25, respectively. We have considered Argan's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
Argan is very steady at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of Argan Inc is based on 3 months time horizon.
Argan Stock Price Prediction Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as Argan is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Argan backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Argan, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.21 | 4.83 | 1.58 | 0.18 | 11 Events / Month | 9 Events / Month | In about 11 days |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | ||
120.00 | 118.42 | 1.32 |
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Argan Hype Timeline
On the 15th of March 2025 Argan Inc is traded for 120.00. The entity has historical hype elasticity of -1.58, and average elasticity to hype of competition of -0.18. Argan is forecasted to decline in value after the next headline, with the price expected to drop to 118.42. The average volatility of media hype impact on the company price is about 64.23%. The price depreciation on the next news is expected to be -1.32%, whereas the daily expected return is presently at -0.21%. The volatility of related hype on Argan is about 565.89%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 119.82. About 89.0% of the company shares are held by institutions such as insurance companies. The book value of Argan was presently reported as 24.22. The company last dividend was issued on the 23rd of January 2025. Argan Inc had 1:15 split on the 9th of October 2001. Considering the 90-day investment horizon the next forecasted press release will be in about 11 days. Check out Argan Basic Forecasting Models to cross-verify your projections.Argan Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to Argan's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Argan's future price movements. Getting to know how Argan's peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how Argan may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
Argan Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine Argan price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Argan using various technical indicators. When you analyze Argan charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
About Argan Predictive Indicators
The successful prediction of Argan stock price could yield a significant profit to investors. But is it possible? The efficient-market hypothesis suggests that all published stock prices of traded companies, such as Argan Inc, already reflect all publicly available information. This academic statement is a fundamental principle of many financial and investing theories used today. However, the typical investor usually disagrees with a 'textbook' version of this hypothesis and continually tries to find mispriced stocks to increase returns. We use internally-developed statistical techniques to arrive at the intrinsic value of Argan based on analysis of Argan hews, social hype, general headline patterns, and widely used predictive technical indicators.
We also calculate exposure to Argan's market risk, different technical and fundamental indicators, relevant financial multiples and ratios, and then comparing them to Argan's related companies. | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 (projected) | Dividend Yield | 0.0254 | 0.0248 | 0.0223 | 0.0228 | Price To Sales Ratio | 1.21 | 1.03 | 1.19 | 1.26 |
Story Coverage note for Argan
The number of cover stories for Argan depends on current market conditions and Argan's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that Argan is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about Argan's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
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Argan Short Properties
Argan's future price predictability will typically decrease when Argan's long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of Argan Inc often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential Argan's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Argan's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 13.5 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 412.4 M |
Additional Tools for Argan Stock Analysis
When running Argan's price analysis, check to measure Argan's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Argan is operating at the current time. Most of Argan's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Argan's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Argan's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Argan to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.