Graphic Packaging Holding Stock Buy Hold or Sell Recommendation
| GPK Stock | USD 26.23 0.13 0.50% |
Considering the 90-day investment horizon and your above-average risk tolerance, our recommendation regarding Graphic Packaging Holding is 'Strong Hold'. The recommendation algorithm takes into account all of Graphic Packaging's available fundamental, technical, and predictive indicators you will find on this site.
Check out Graphic Packaging Analyst Recommendation to compare Macroaxis Buy or Sell Recommendation with the current analyst consensus. To check ratings for multiple equity instruments, please use the Instant Ratings tool. Note, we conduct extensive research on individual companies such as Graphic and provide practical buy, sell, or hold advice based on investors' constraints. Graphic Packaging Holding. Also, note that the market value of any company could be closely tied with the direction of predictive economic indicators such as signals in american community survey.
Graphic |
Execute Graphic Packaging Buy or Sell Advice
The Graphic recommendation should be used to complement the buy-or-sell advice compiled from the current analysts' consensus on Graphic Packaging Holding. Macroaxis does not own or have any residual interests in Graphic Packaging Holding or other equities on which the buy-or-sell advice is provided. Please provide your input below to execute Graphic Packaging's advice using the current market data and latest reported fundamentals.
Time Horizon
Risk Tolerance
 |  |
Strong Hold
Market Performance | Very Weak | Details | |
Volatility | Very steady | Details | |
Hype Condition | Stale | Details | |
Current Valuation | Fairly Valued | Details | |
Odds Of Distress | Low | Details | |
Economic Sensitivity | Follows the market closely | Details | |
Investor Sentiment | Alarmed | Details | |
Analyst Consensus | Buy | Details | |
Financial Leverage | Not Rated | Details | |
Reporting Quality (M-Score) | Unavailable | Details |
Graphic Packaging Trading Alerts and Improvement Suggestions
| Graphic Packaging generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days | |
| Graphic Packaging is unlikely to experience financial distress in the next 2 years | |
| Over 99.0% of the company shares are owned by institutional investors | |
| Latest headline from gurufocus.com: Karat Packaging Inc Q4 2024 Earnings Call Highlights Strong Sales Growth and Strategic ... |
Graphic Packaging Returns Distribution Density
The distribution of Graphic Packaging's historical returns is an attempt to chart the uncertainty of Graphic Packaging's future price movements. The chart of the probability distribution of Graphic Packaging daily returns describes the distribution of returns around its average expected value. We use Graphic Packaging Holding price's Value At Risk and its Upside Potential as a relative measure of the distribution. The graph of the distribution of Graphic Packaging returns is essential to provide solid investment advice for Graphic Packaging.
| Mean Return | -0.16 | Value At Risk | -2.51 | Potential Upside | 2.05 | Standard Deviation | 1.46 |
Return Density |
| Distribution |
Investment risk management requires an estimate of the probability of extreme price changes. Therefore, the correct representation of the distribution of Graphic Packaging historical returns presented in an easy-to-digest graphical form helps investors and money managers understand the risk-reward trade-off of different investement strategies.
Graphic Stock Institutional Investors
| Shares | Eminence Capital Llc | 2024-12-31 | 5.8 M | Shapiro Capital Management Co Inc | 2024-12-31 | 5.1 M | Geode Capital Management, Llc | 2024-12-31 | 5 M | Amundi | 2024-12-31 | 4.8 M | Neuberger Berman Group Llc | 2024-12-31 | 4.4 M | Impax Asset Management Group Plc | 2024-09-30 | 4.2 M | Alliancebernstein L.p. | 2024-12-31 | 4.2 M | Handelsbanken Fonder Ab | 2024-12-31 | 3.7 M | Lsv Asset Management | 2024-12-31 | 3.6 M | Blackrock Inc | 2024-12-31 | 29.8 M | Vanguard Group Inc | 2024-12-31 | 29.7 M |
Graphic Packaging Cash Flow Accounts
| 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 (projected) | ||
| Change To Inventory | 34.8M | (80M) | (268M) | (117M) | (124M) | (117.8M) | |
| Change In Cash | 26.1M | (7M) | (17M) | 12M | (5M) | (4.8M) | |
| Free Cash Flow | 199.3M | (193M) | 541M | 340M | 840M | 882M | |
| Depreciation | 475.8M | 489M | 553M | 619M | 557M | 584.9M | |
| Other Non Cash Items | 19.8M | 18.6M | 102M | 1.6B | (318M) | (302.1M) | |
| Dividends Paid | 112.7M | 102.8M | 92M | 123M | 122M | 66.3M | |
| Capital Expenditures | 646.3M | 802M | 549M | 804M | 1.2B | 1.3B | |
| Net Income | 203.3M | 216M | 522M | 723M | 658M | 690.9M | |
| End Period Cash Flow | 179M | 172M | 155M | 162M | 157M | 86.7M | |
| Change To Netincome | 67.8M | 221.3M | 124M | 242M | 278.3M | 292.2M | |
| Net Borrowings | (109.1M) | 780.2M | 2.2B | (530M) | (609.5M) | (579.0M) | |
| Investments | (668.7M) | (2.4B) | 119M | (943M) | (342M) | (359.1M) |
Graphic Packaging Greeks
Most traded equities are subject to two types of risk - systematic (i.e., market) and unsystematic (i.e., nonmarket or company-specific) risk. Unsystematic risk is the risk that events specific to Graphic Packaging or Containers & Packaging sector will adversely affect the stock's price. This type of risk can be diversified away by owning several different stocks in different industries whose stock prices have shown a small correlation to each other. On the other hand, systematic risk is the risk that Graphic Packaging's price will be affected by overall stock market movements and cannot be diversified away. So, no matter how many positions you have, you cannot eliminate market risk. However, you can measure a Graphic stock's historical response to market movements and buy it if you are comfortable with its volatility direction. Beta and standard deviation are two commonly used measures to help you make the right decision.
α | Alpha over Dow Jones | -0.1 | |
β | Beta against Dow Jones | 0.62 | |
σ | Overall volatility | 1.51 | |
Ir | Information ratio | -0.04 |
Graphic Packaging Volatility Alert
Graphic Packaging Holding exhibits very low volatility with skewness of -0.34 and kurtosis of 1.06. Understanding different market volatility trends often help investors to time the market. Properly using volatility indicators enable traders to measure Graphic Packaging's stock risk against market volatility during both bullish and bearish trends. The higher level of volatility that comes with bear markets can directly impact Graphic Packaging's stock price while adding stress to investors as they watch their shares' value plummet. This usually forces investors to rebalance their portfolios by buying different financial instruments as prices fall.Graphic Packaging Fundamentals Vs Peers
Comparing Graphic Packaging's fundamentals to the average values of its peers is one of the most widely used and accepted methods of equity analyses. It helps to analyze Graphic Packaging's direct or indirect competition across all of the common fundamentals between Graphic Packaging and the related equities. This way, we can detect undervalued stocks with similar characteristics as Graphic Packaging or determine the stocks which would be an excellent addition to an existing portfolio. Peer analysis of Graphic Packaging's fundamental indicators could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Graphic Packaging by comparing valuation metrics with those of similar companies.
| Better Than Average | Worse Than Average | Compare Graphic Packaging to competition |
| Fundamentals | Graphic Packaging | Peer Average |
| Return On Equity | 0.23 | -0.31 |
| Return On Asset | 0.0642 | -0.14 |
| Profit Margin | 0.07 % | (1.27) % |
| Operating Margin | 0.13 % | (5.51) % |
| Current Valuation | 12.96 B | 16.62 B |
| Shares Outstanding | 300.21 M | 571.82 M |
| Shares Owned By Insiders | 1.40 % | 10.09 % |
| Shares Owned By Institutions | 98.60 % | 39.21 % |
| Number Of Shares Shorted | 21.05 M | 4.71 M |
| Price To Earning | 17.46 X | 28.72 X |
| Price To Book | 2.61 X | 9.51 X |
| Price To Sales | 0.89 X | 11.42 X |
| Revenue | 8.81 B | 9.43 B |
| Gross Profit | 1.98 B | 27.38 B |
| EBITDA | 1.12 B | 3.9 B |
| Net Income | 658 M | 570.98 M |
| Cash And Equivalents | 150 M | 2.7 B |
| Cash Per Share | 0.27 X | 5.01 X |
| Total Debt | 5.18 B | 5.32 B |
| Debt To Equity | 2.81 % | 48.70 % |
| Current Ratio | 1.30 X | 2.16 X |
| Book Value Per Share | 10.04 X | 1.93 K |
| Cash Flow From Operations | 840 M | 971.22 M |
| Short Ratio | 8.60 X | 4.00 X |
| Earnings Per Share | 2.16 X | 3.12 X |
| Price To Earnings To Growth | 1.13 X | 4.89 X |
| Target Price | 31.05 | |
| Number Of Employees | 23 K | 18.84 K |
| Beta | 0.82 | -0.15 |
| Market Capitalization | 7.87 B | 19.03 B |
| Total Asset | 11.14 B | 29.47 B |
| Retained Earnings | 1.41 B | 9.33 B |
| Working Capital | 881 M | 1.48 B |
Note: Disposition of 4973 shares by Joseph Yost of Graphic Packaging at 30.09 subject to Rule 16b-3 [view details]
Graphic Packaging Market Momentum
Traders often use several daily momentume indicators to supplement a more traditional technical analysis when analyzing securities such as Graphic . With many different options, investors must choose the best indicators for them and familiarize themselves with how they work. We suggest combining traditional momentum indicators with more near-term forms of technical analysis such as Accumulation Distribution or Daily Balance Of Power. With their quantitative nature, daily value technical indicators can also be incorporated into your automated trading systems.
About Graphic Packaging Buy or Sell Advice
When is the right time to buy or sell Graphic Packaging Holding? Buying financial instruments such as Graphic Stock isn't very hard. However, what challenging for most investors is doing it at the right time to beat the market. Proper market timing is something most people cannot do without sophisticated tools, which help to isolate the right opportunities. Macroaxis provides hands-on modules to deliver winning trades and diversify your portfolios on a daily basis. Most of our advising modules are very easy to use and apply.
Please read more on our stock advisor page.
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Check out Graphic Packaging Analyst Recommendation to compare Macroaxis Buy or Sell Recommendation with the current analyst consensus. To check ratings for multiple equity instruments, please use the Instant Ratings tool. You can also try the Equity Valuation module to check real value of public entities based on technical and fundamental data.
Is Paper & Plastic Packaging Products & Materials space expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Graphic Packaging. If investors know Graphic will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Graphic Packaging listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth (0.28) | Dividend Share 0.4 | Earnings Share 2.16 | Revenue Per Share | Quarterly Revenue Growth (0.07) |
The market value of Graphic Packaging Holding is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Graphic that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Graphic Packaging's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Graphic Packaging's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Graphic Packaging's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Graphic Packaging's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Graphic Packaging's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Graphic Packaging is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Graphic Packaging's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.