Guess Inc Stock Buy Hold or Sell Recommendation
| GES Stock | USD 16.39 0.94 5.42% |
Considering the 90-day investment horizon and your above-average risk tolerance, our recommendation regarding Guess Inc is 'Strong Hold'. A buy or sell recommendation provided by Macroaxis is an automated directive regarding whether to purchase or sell Guess Inc given historical horizon and risk tolerance towards Guess. When Macroaxis issues a 'buy' or 'sell' recommendation for Guess Inc, the advice is generated through an automated system that utilizes algorithms and statistical models.
Check out Guess Analyst Recommendation to compare Macroaxis Buy or Sell Recommendation with the current analyst consensus. To check ratings for multiple equity instruments, please use the Instant Ratings tool. Note, we conduct extensive research on individual companies such as Guess and provide practical buy, sell, or hold advice based on investors' constraints. Guess Inc. Also, note that the market value of any company could be closely tied with the direction of predictive economic indicators such as signals in income.
Guess |
Execute Guess Buy or Sell Advice
The Guess recommendation should be used to complement the buy-or-sell advice compiled from the current analysts' consensus on Guess Inc. Macroaxis does not own or have any residual interests in Guess Inc or other equities on which the buy-or-sell advice is provided. Please provide your input below to execute Guess' advice using the current market data and latest reported fundamentals.
Time Horizon
Risk Tolerance
 |  |
Strong Hold
Market Performance | Very Weak | Details | |
Volatility | Not too volatile | Details | |
Hype Condition | Under hyped | Details | |
Current Valuation | Undervalued | Details | |
Odds Of Distress | Very Low | Details | |
Economic Sensitivity | Responds to the market | Details | |
Investor Sentiment | Alarmed | Details | |
Analyst Consensus | Buy | Details | |
Financial Strenth (F Score) | Healthy | Details | |
Financial Leverage | Not Rated | Details | |
Reporting Quality (M-Score) | Unlikely Manipulator | Details |
Guess Trading Alerts and Improvement Suggestions
| Guess Inc generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days | |
| Guess Inc is unlikely to experience financial distress in the next 2 years | |
| About 72.0% of the company shares are owned by institutional investors | |
| Latest headline from gurufocus.com: Guess, Inc. Reports Fiscal Year 2025 Third Quarter Results |
Guess Returns Distribution Density
The distribution of Guess' historical returns is an attempt to chart the uncertainty of Guess' future price movements. The chart of the probability distribution of Guess daily returns describes the distribution of returns around its average expected value. We use Guess Inc price's Value At Risk and its Upside Potential as a relative measure of the distribution. The graph of the distribution of Guess returns is essential to provide solid investment advice for Guess.
| Mean Return | -0.27 | Value At Risk | -3.88 | Potential Upside | 3.44 | Standard Deviation | 2.20 |
Return Density |
| Distribution |
Investment risk management requires an estimate of the probability of extreme price changes. Therefore, the correct representation of the distribution of Guess historical returns presented in an easy-to-digest graphical form helps investors and money managers understand the risk-reward trade-off of different investement strategies.
Guess Stock Institutional Investors
The Guess' institutional investors refer to entities that pool money to purchase Guess' securities or originate loans. These institutional investors include commercial and private banks, credit unions, insurance companies, pension funds, hedge funds, endowments, and mutual funds.
| Shares | Nomura Holdings Inc | 2024-06-30 | 945.7 K | American Century Companies Inc | 2024-09-30 | 933.8 K | Bnp Paribas Arbitrage, Sa | 2024-06-30 | 919.5 K | Bank Of Montreal | 2024-06-30 | 914.4 K | Bmo Capital Markets Corp. | 2024-06-30 | 914.4 K | State Street Corp | 2024-06-30 | 813.8 K | Goldman Sachs Group Inc | 2024-06-30 | 774.2 K | Bank Of New York Mellon Corp | 2024-06-30 | 600.2 K | Amvescap Plc. | 2024-06-30 | 591 K | Pacer Advisors, Inc. | 2024-06-30 | 4 M | Blackrock Inc | 2024-06-30 | 3.6 M |
Guess Cash Flow Accounts
| 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 (projected) | ||
| Change To Inventory | 65.4M | 17.8M | (91.0M) | (54.4M) | 39.3M | 41.2M | |
| Change In Cash | 73.8M | 184.5M | (53.8M) | (139.8M) | 84.5M | 88.7M | |
| Free Cash Flow | 136.0M | 190.2M | 68.1M | 79.7M | 256.2M | 269.0M | |
| Depreciation | 72.2M | 63.5M | 56.8M | 61.5M | 61.3M | 58.0M | |
| Other Non Cash Items | 24.7M | 110.8M | 31.9M | 41.3M | 20.5M | 12.6M | |
| Dividends Paid | 42.1M | 15.6M | 36.7M | 51.8M | 62.8M | 56.7M | |
| Capital Expenditures | 61.9M | 18.9M | 63.5M | 89.5M | 74.2M | 71.8M | |
| Net Income | 101.2M | (80.7M) | 180.0M | 161.5M | 195.8M | 106.2M | |
| End Period Cash Flow | 284.8M | 469.3M | 415.6M | 275.8M | 360.3M | 272.8M | |
| Investments | 162K | (4.8M) | (62.3M) | (89.9M) | (75.1M) | (71.4M) | |
| Net Borrowings | (2.3M) | 235.0M | 44.1M | (5.8M) | (6.6M) | (6.3M) | |
| Change To Netincome | 45.8M | 34.9M | 113.0M | (39.7M) | (45.7M) | (43.4M) |
Guess Greeks
Most traded equities are subject to two types of risk - systematic (i.e., market) and unsystematic (i.e., nonmarket or company-specific) risk. Unsystematic risk is the risk that events specific to Guess or Specialty Retail sector will adversely affect the stock's price. This type of risk can be diversified away by owning several different stocks in different industries whose stock prices have shown a small correlation to each other. On the other hand, systematic risk is the risk that Guess' price will be affected by overall stock market movements and cannot be diversified away. So, no matter how many positions you have, you cannot eliminate market risk. However, you can measure a Guess stock's historical response to market movements and buy it if you are comfortable with its volatility direction. Beta and standard deviation are two commonly used measures to help you make the right decision.
α | Alpha over Dow Jones | -0.45 | |
β | Beta against Dow Jones | 1.42 | |
σ | Overall volatility | 2.26 | |
Ir | Information ratio | -0.18 |
Guess Volatility Alert
Guess Inc exhibits very low volatility with skewness of 0.34 and kurtosis of 0.11. Understanding different market volatility trends often help investors to time the market. Properly using volatility indicators enable traders to measure Guess' stock risk against market volatility during both bullish and bearish trends. The higher level of volatility that comes with bear markets can directly impact Guess' stock price while adding stress to investors as they watch their shares' value plummet. This usually forces investors to rebalance their portfolios by buying different financial instruments as prices fall.Guess Fundamentals Vs Peers
Comparing Guess' fundamentals to the average values of its peers is one of the most widely used and accepted methods of equity analyses. It helps to analyze Guess' direct or indirect competition across all of the common fundamentals between Guess and the related equities. This way, we can detect undervalued stocks with similar characteristics as Guess or determine the stocks which would be an excellent addition to an existing portfolio. Peer analysis of Guess' fundamental indicators could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Guess by comparing valuation metrics with those of similar companies.
| Better Than Average | Worse Than Average | Compare Guess to competition |
| Fundamentals | Guess | Peer Average |
| Return On Equity | 0.35 | -0.31 |
| Return On Asset | 0.0555 | -0.14 |
| Profit Margin | 0.06 % | (1.27) % |
| Operating Margin | 0.05 % | (5.51) % |
| Current Valuation | 2.11 B | 16.62 B |
| Shares Outstanding | 51.42 M | 571.82 M |
| Shares Owned By Insiders | 41.72 % | 10.09 % |
| Shares Owned By Institutions | 72.47 % | 39.21 % |
| Number Of Shares Shorted | 7.74 M | 4.71 M |
| Price To Earning | 10.46 X | 28.72 X |
| Price To Book | 1.89 X | 9.51 X |
| Price To Sales | 0.31 X | 11.42 X |
| Revenue | 2.78 B | 9.43 B |
| Gross Profit | 1.15 B | 27.38 B |
| EBITDA | 318.65 M | 3.9 B |
| Net Income | 195.83 M | 570.98 M |
| Cash And Equivalents | 275.76 M | 2.7 B |
| Cash Per Share | 3.23 X | 5.01 X |
| Total Debt | 1.16 B | 5.32 B |
| Debt To Equity | 2.54 % | 48.70 % |
| Current Ratio | 1.57 X | 2.16 X |
| Book Value Per Share | 9.55 X | 1.93 K |
| Cash Flow From Operations | 330.38 M | 971.22 M |
| Short Ratio | 11.65 X | 4.00 X |
| Earnings Per Share | 2.67 X | 3.12 X |
| Price To Earnings To Growth | 6.14 X | 4.89 X |
| Target Price | 21.75 | |
| Number Of Employees | 12 K | 18.84 K |
| Beta | 1.99 | -0.15 |
| Market Capitalization | 891.15 M | 19.03 B |
| Total Asset | 2.59 B | 29.47 B |
| Retained Earnings | 1.41 B | 9.33 B |
| Working Capital | 433.92 M | 1.48 B |
Note: Disposition of 6034 shares by Carlos Alberini of Guess at 22.51 subject to Rule 16b-3 [view details]
Guess Market Momentum
Traders often use several daily momentume indicators to supplement a more traditional technical analysis when analyzing securities such as Guess . With many different options, investors must choose the best indicators for them and familiarize themselves with how they work. We suggest combining traditional momentum indicators with more near-term forms of technical analysis such as Accumulation Distribution or Daily Balance Of Power. With their quantitative nature, daily value technical indicators can also be incorporated into your automated trading systems.
| Accumulation Distribution | 231780.0 | |||
| Daily Balance Of Power | (0.55) | |||
| Rate Of Daily Change | 0.95 | |||
| Day Median Price | 16.1 | |||
| Day Typical Price | 16.19 | |||
| Price Action Indicator | (0.17) | |||
| Period Momentum Indicator | (0.94) | |||
| Relative Strength Index | 41.03 |
About Guess Buy or Sell Advice
When is the right time to buy or sell Guess Inc? Buying financial instruments such as Guess Stock isn't very hard. However, what challenging for most investors is doing it at the right time to beat the market. Proper market timing is something most people cannot do without sophisticated tools, which help to isolate the right opportunities. Macroaxis provides hands-on modules to deliver winning trades and diversify your portfolios on a daily basis. Most of our advising modules are very easy to use and apply.
Please read more on our stock advisor page.
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Additional Tools for Guess Stock Analysis
When running Guess' price analysis, check to measure Guess' market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Guess is operating at the current time. Most of Guess' value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Guess' future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Guess' price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Guess to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.