Assured Guaranty Stock Buy Hold or Sell Recommendation
| AGO Stock | USD 86.28 2.14 2.54% |
Considering the 90-day investment horizon and your above-average risk tolerance, our recommendation regarding Assured Guaranty is 'Hold'. The recommendation algorithm takes into account all of Assured Guaranty's available fundamental, technical, and predictive indicators you will find on this site.
Check out Assured Guaranty Analyst Recommendation to compare Macroaxis Buy or Sell Recommendation with the current analyst consensus. To check ratings for multiple equity instruments, please use the Instant Ratings tool. To learn how to invest in Assured Stock, please use our How to Invest in Assured Guaranty guide. In addition, we conduct extensive research on individual companies such as Assured and provide practical buy, sell, or hold advice based on investors' investing horizon and their risk tolerance towards Assured Guaranty. Also, note that the market value of any company could be closely tied with the direction of predictive economic indicators such as signals in price.
Assured |
Execute Assured Guaranty Buy or Sell Advice
The Assured recommendation should be used to complement the buy-or-sell advice compiled from the current analysts' consensus on Assured Guaranty. Macroaxis does not own or have any residual interests in Assured Guaranty or other equities on which the buy-or-sell advice is provided. Please provide your input below to execute Assured Guaranty's advice using the current market data and latest reported fundamentals.
Time Horizon
Risk Tolerance
 |  |
Hold
Market Performance | Very Weak | Details | |
Volatility | Very steady | Details | |
Hype Condition | Low key | Details | |
Current Valuation | Undervalued | Details | |
Odds Of Distress | Very Low | Details | |
Economic Sensitivity | Follows the market closely | Details | |
Investor Sentiment | Alarmed | Details | |
Analyst Consensus | Buy | Details | |
Financial Strenth (F Score) | Strong | Details | |
Financial Leverage | Not Rated | Details | |
Reporting Quality (M-Score) | Unlikely Manipulator | Details |
Assured Guaranty Trading Alerts and Improvement Suggestions
| Assured Guaranty generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days | |
| Assured Guaranty has 1.7 B in debt with debt to equity (D/E) ratio of 0.33, which is OK given its current industry classification. Assured Guaranty has a current ratio of 0.79, suggesting that it has not enough short term capital to pay financial commitments when the payables are due. Note however, debt could still be an excellent tool for Assured to invest in growth at high rates of return. | |
| Assured Guaranty has a strong financial position based on the latest SEC filings | |
| Over 96.0% of Assured Guaranty shares are held by institutions such as insurance companies | |
| Latest headline from MacroaxisInsider: Disposition of 16303 shares by Robert Bailenson of Assured Guaranty at 90.8 subject to Rule 16b-3 |
Assured Guaranty Returns Distribution Density
The distribution of Assured Guaranty's historical returns is an attempt to chart the uncertainty of Assured Guaranty's future price movements. The chart of the probability distribution of Assured Guaranty daily returns describes the distribution of returns around its average expected value. We use Assured Guaranty price's Value At Risk and its Upside Potential as a relative measure of the distribution. The graph of the distribution of Assured Guaranty returns is essential to provide solid investment advice for Assured Guaranty.
| Mean Return | -0.06 | Value At Risk | -3.07 | Potential Upside | 2.10 | Standard Deviation | 1.53 |
Return Density |
| Distribution |
Investment risk management requires an estimate of the probability of extreme price changes. Therefore, the correct representation of the distribution of Assured Guaranty historical returns presented in an easy-to-digest graphical form helps investors and money managers understand the risk-reward trade-off of different investement strategies.
Assured Stock Institutional Investors
Have you ever been surprised when a price of an equity instrument, such as Assured Guaranty, soars without any apparent reason. This usually happens because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Assured Guaranty back and forth among themselves. Companies that invest excess capital in these types of assets may also be included in this term and can influence corporate governance by exercising voting rights in their investments.
| Shares | American Century Companies Inc | 2024-12-31 | 903.3 K | Boston Partners Global Investors, Inc | 2024-12-31 | 806.8 K | Geode Capital Management, Llc | 2024-12-31 | 797.7 K | Allianz Asset Management Ag | 2024-12-31 | 719.2 K | Brown Advisory Holdings Inc | 2024-12-31 | 627.7 K | Norges Bank | 2024-12-31 | 560.5 K | Morgan Stanley - Brokerage Accounts | 2024-12-31 | 558.6 K | Northern Trust Corp | 2024-12-31 | 533.3 K | First Trust Advisors L.p. | 2024-12-31 | 488.9 K | Vanguard Group Inc | 2024-12-31 | 6.6 M | Blackrock Inc | 2024-12-31 | 6.4 M |
Assured Guaranty Cash Flow Accounts
| 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 (projected) | ||
| Net Income | 368M | 419M | 137M | 739M | 376M | 461.0M | |
| End Period Cash Flow | 298M | 342M | 207M | 286M | 1M | 950K | |
| Change In Cash | 79M | 115M | 44M | (135M) | 1M | 950K | |
| Free Cash Flow | (853M) | (1.9B) | (2.5B) | 461M | 625M | 656.3M | |
| Depreciation | (9M) | 12M | 11M | 2M | 1.8M | 1.7M | |
| Other Non Cash Items | (937M) | (2.3B) | (1.3B) | 12M | 279M | 293.0M | |
| Change To Netincome | 110M | 99M | 112M | 101M | 116.2M | 122.0M | |
| Investments | 270M | 376M | 1.2B | 795M | 780M | 916.7M | |
| Change Receivables | 52M | (368M) | (82M) | 74M | 66.6M | 80.9M | |
| Net Borrowings | 478M | 950M | 1.6B | 1.0B | 1.2B | 1.2B |
Assured Guaranty Greeks
Most traded equities are subject to two types of risk - systematic (i.e., market) and unsystematic (i.e., nonmarket or company-specific) risk. Unsystematic risk is the risk that events specific to Assured Guaranty or Insurance sector will adversely affect the stock's price. This type of risk can be diversified away by owning several different stocks in different industries whose stock prices have shown a small correlation to each other. On the other hand, systematic risk is the risk that Assured Guaranty's price will be affected by overall stock market movements and cannot be diversified away. So, no matter how many positions you have, you cannot eliminate market risk. However, you can measure a Assured stock's historical response to market movements and buy it if you are comfortable with its volatility direction. Beta and standard deviation are two commonly used measures to help you make the right decision.
α | Alpha over Dow Jones | -0.0018 | |
β | Beta against Dow Jones | 0.61 | |
σ | Overall volatility | 1.55 | |
Ir | Information ratio | 0.03 |
Assured Guaranty Volatility Alert
Assured Guaranty exhibits very low volatility with skewness of -0.88 and kurtosis of 1.4. Understanding different market volatility trends often help investors to time the market. Properly using volatility indicators enable traders to measure Assured Guaranty's stock risk against market volatility during both bullish and bearish trends. The higher level of volatility that comes with bear markets can directly impact Assured Guaranty's stock price while adding stress to investors as they watch their shares' value plummet. This usually forces investors to rebalance their portfolios by buying different financial instruments as prices fall.Assured Guaranty Fundamentals Vs Peers
Comparing Assured Guaranty's fundamentals to the average values of its peers is one of the most widely used and accepted methods of equity analyses. It helps to analyze Assured Guaranty's direct or indirect competition across all of the common fundamentals between Assured Guaranty and the related equities. This way, we can detect undervalued stocks with similar characteristics as Assured Guaranty or determine the stocks which would be an excellent addition to an existing portfolio. Peer analysis of Assured Guaranty's fundamental indicators could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Assured Guaranty by comparing valuation metrics with those of similar companies.
| Better Than Average | Worse Than Average | Compare Assured Guaranty to competition |
| Fundamentals | Assured Guaranty | Peer Average |
| Return On Equity | 0.0693 | -0.31 |
| Return On Asset | 0.0281 | -0.14 |
| Profit Margin | 0.42 % | (1.27) % |
| Operating Margin | 0.58 % | (5.51) % |
| Current Valuation | 5.9 B | 16.62 B |
| Shares Outstanding | 50.08 M | 571.82 M |
| Shares Owned By Insiders | 6.74 % | 10.09 % |
| Shares Owned By Institutions | 96.06 % | 39.21 % |
| Number Of Shares Shorted | 991.52 K | 4.71 M |
| Price To Earning | 14.95 X | 28.72 X |
| Price To Book | 0.79 X | 9.51 X |
| Price To Sales | 4.81 X | 11.42 X |
| Revenue | 872 M | 9.43 B |
| Gross Profit | 905 M | 27.38 B |
| EBITDA | 552 M | 3.9 B |
| Net Income | 376 M | 570.98 M |
| Cash And Equivalents | 1.44 B | 2.7 B |
| Cash Per Share | 23.31 X | 5.01 X |
| Total Debt | 1.7 B | 5.32 B |
| Debt To Equity | 0.33 % | 48.70 % |
| Current Ratio | 0.81 X | 2.16 X |
| Book Value Per Share | 108.85 X | 1.93 K |
| Cash Flow From Operations | 625 M | 971.22 M |
| Short Ratio | 3.71 X | 4.00 X |
| Earnings Per Share | 6.87 X | 3.12 X |
| Price To Earnings To Growth | 2.52 X | 4.89 X |
| Target Price | 106.5 | |
| Number Of Employees | 361 | 18.84 K |
| Beta | 1.11 | -0.15 |
| Market Capitalization | 4.32 B | 19.03 B |
| Total Asset | 11.9 B | 29.47 B |
| Retained Earnings | 5.88 B | 9.33 B |
| Annual Yield | 0.02 % |
Note: Disposition of 16303 shares by Robert Bailenson of Assured Guaranty at 90.8 subject to Rule 16b-3 [view details]
Assured Guaranty Market Momentum
Traders often use several daily momentume indicators to supplement a more traditional technical analysis when analyzing securities such as Assured . With many different options, investors must choose the best indicators for them and familiarize themselves with how they work. We suggest combining traditional momentum indicators with more near-term forms of technical analysis such as Accumulation Distribution or Daily Balance Of Power. With their quantitative nature, daily value technical indicators can also be incorporated into your automated trading systems.
About Assured Guaranty Buy or Sell Advice
When is the right time to buy or sell Assured Guaranty? Buying financial instruments such as Assured Stock isn't very hard. However, what challenging for most investors is doing it at the right time to beat the market. Proper market timing is something most people cannot do without sophisticated tools, which help to isolate the right opportunities. Macroaxis provides hands-on modules to deliver winning trades and diversify your portfolios on a daily basis. Most of our advising modules are very easy to use and apply.
Please read more on our stock advisor page.
Use Investing Ideas to Build Portfolios
In addition to having Assured Guaranty in your portfolios, you can quickly add positions using our predefined set of ideas and optimize them against your very unique investing style. A single investing idea is a collection of funds, stocks, ETFs, or cryptocurrencies that are programmatically selected from a pull of investment themes. After you determine your investment opportunity, you can then find an optimal portfolio that will maximize potential returns on the chosen idea or minimize its exposure to market volatility.Did You Try This Idea?
Run Business Supplies Thematic Idea Now
Business Supplies
Fama and French investing themes focus on testing asset pricing under different economic assumptions. The Business Supplies theme has 24 constituents at this time.
You can either use a buy-and-hold strategy to lock in the entire theme or actively trade it to take advantage of the short-term price volatility of individual constituents. Macroaxis can help you discover thousands of investment opportunities in different asset classes. In addition, you can partner with us for reliable portfolio optimization as you plan to utilize Business Supplies Theme or any other thematic opportunities.
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Check out Assured Guaranty Analyst Recommendation to compare Macroaxis Buy or Sell Recommendation with the current analyst consensus. To check ratings for multiple equity instruments, please use the Instant Ratings tool. To learn how to invest in Assured Stock, please use our How to Invest in Assured Guaranty guide.You can also try the Idea Optimizer module to use advanced portfolio builder with pre-computed micro ideas to build optimal portfolio .
Is Property & Casualty Insurance space expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Assured Guaranty. If investors know Assured will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Assured Guaranty listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth (0.95) | Dividend Share 1.24 | Earnings Share 6.87 | Revenue Per Share | Quarterly Revenue Growth (0.17) |
The market value of Assured Guaranty is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Assured that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Assured Guaranty's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Assured Guaranty's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Assured Guaranty's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Assured Guaranty's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Assured Guaranty's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Assured Guaranty is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Assured Guaranty's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.