American Financial Group Stock Buy Hold or Sell Recommendation
| AFG Stock | USD 143.91 2.95 2.01% |
Considering the 90-day investment horizon and your slightly conservative level of risk, our recommendation regarding American Financial Group is 'Buy'. Macroaxis provides American Financial buy-hold-or-sell recommendation only in the context of selected investment horizon and investor attitude towards risk assumed by holding AFG positions.
Check out American Financial Analyst Recommendation to compare Macroaxis Buy or Sell Recommendation with the current analyst consensus. To check ratings for multiple equity instruments, please use the Instant Ratings tool. Note, we conduct extensive research on individual companies such as American and provide practical buy, sell, or hold advice based on investors' constraints. American Financial Group. Also, note that the market value of any company could be closely tied with the direction of predictive economic indicators such as signals in census.
American |
Execute American Financial Buy or Sell Advice
The American recommendation should be used to complement the buy-or-sell advice compiled from the current analysts' consensus on American Financial Group. Macroaxis does not own or have any residual interests in American Financial Group or other equities on which the buy-or-sell advice is provided. Please provide your input below to execute American Financial's advice using the current market data and latest reported fundamentals.
Time Horizon
Risk Tolerance
 |  |
Buy
Market Performance | Good | Details | |
Volatility | Very steady | Details | |
Hype Condition | Low key | Details | |
Current Valuation | Fairly Valued | Details | |
Odds Of Distress | Very Low | Details | |
Economic Sensitivity | Almost mirrors the market | Details | |
Investor Sentiment | Alarmed | Details | |
Analyst Consensus | Buy | Details | |
Financial Strenth (F Score) | Strong | Details | |
Financial Leverage | Not Rated | Details | |
Reporting Quality (M-Score) | Unlikely Manipulator | Details |
American Financial Trading Alerts and Improvement Suggestions
| American Financial has a strong financial position based on the latest SEC filings | |
| About 64.0% of the company shares are held by institutions such as insurance companies | |
| On 25th of October 2024 American Financial paid $ 0.8 per share dividend to its current shareholders | |
| Latest headline from investors.com: American Financial Group Sees IBD RS Rating Rise To 71 |
American Financial Returns Distribution Density
The distribution of American Financial's historical returns is an attempt to chart the uncertainty of American Financial's future price movements. The chart of the probability distribution of American Financial daily returns describes the distribution of returns around its average expected value. We use American Financial Group price's Value At Risk and its Upside Potential as a relative measure of the distribution. The graph of the distribution of American Financial returns is essential to provide solid investment advice for American Financial.
| Mean Return | 0.22 | Value At Risk | -1.7 | Potential Upside | 2.48 | Standard Deviation | 1.37 |
Return Density |
| Distribution |
Investment risk management requires an estimate of the probability of extreme price changes. Therefore, the correct representation of the distribution of American Financial historical returns presented in an easy-to-digest graphical form helps investors and money managers understand the risk-reward trade-off of different investement strategies.
American Stock Institutional Investors
| Shares | Bank Of New York Mellon Corp | 2024-09-30 | 790.1 K | Morgan Stanley - Brokerage Accounts | 2024-09-30 | 748.8 K | Lsv Asset Management | 2024-09-30 | 748.4 K | Goldman Sachs Group Inc | 2024-09-30 | 680.2 K | Fort Washington Investment Advisors Inc | 2024-09-30 | 604.1 K | Northern Trust Corp | 2024-09-30 | 590.4 K | Johnson Investment Counsel Inc | 2024-09-30 | 568.7 K | Bahl & Gaynor Inc. | 2024-09-30 | 551.2 K | First Trust Advisors L.p. | 2024-09-30 | 535.9 K | Vanguard Group Inc | 2024-09-30 | 8.2 M | Blackrock Inc | 2024-06-30 | 7.8 M |
American Financial Cash Flow Accounts
| 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 (projected) | ||
| Change In Cash | 799M | 496M | (679M) | (1.3B) | 353M | 370.7M | |
| Free Cash Flow | 2.5B | 1.8B | 1.6B | 1.1B | 2.0B | 2.1B | |
| Depreciation | 259M | 299M | 187M | 100M | 78M | 143.8M | |
| Other Non Cash Items | 542M | 779M | (1.3B) | (31M) | 7M | 6.7M | |
| Dividends Paid | 444M | 334M | 2.4B | 1.2B | 684M | 718.2M | |
| Capital Expenditures | 43M | 40M | 343M | 150M | 72M | 92.7M | |
| Net Income | 869M | 721M | 2.0B | 898M | 852M | 894.6M | |
| End Period Cash Flow | 2.3B | 2.8B | 2.1B | 872M | 1.2B | 929.2M | |
| Investments | (3.0B) | (799M) | 1.4B | (737M) | 470M | 493.5M | |
| Change To Netincome | (403M) | (259M) | (1.6B) | (31M) | (27.9M) | (29.3M) |
American Financial Greeks
Most traded equities are subject to two types of risk - systematic (i.e., market) and unsystematic (i.e., nonmarket or company-specific) risk. Unsystematic risk is the risk that events specific to American Financial or Insurance sector will adversely affect the stock's price. This type of risk can be diversified away by owning several different stocks in different industries whose stock prices have shown a small correlation to each other. On the other hand, systematic risk is the risk that American Financial's price will be affected by overall stock market movements and cannot be diversified away. So, no matter how many positions you have, you cannot eliminate market risk. However, you can measure a American stock's historical response to market movements and buy it if you are comfortable with its volatility direction. Beta and standard deviation are two commonly used measures to help you make the right decision.
α | Alpha over Dow Jones | 0.06 | |
β | Beta against Dow Jones | 1.18 | |
σ | Overall volatility | 1.39 | |
Ir | Information ratio | 0.06 |
American Financial Volatility Alert
American Financial Group has relatively low volatility with skewness of 0.76 and kurtosis of 1.4. Understanding different market volatility trends often help investors to time the market. Properly using volatility indicators enable traders to measure American Financial's stock risk against market volatility during both bullish and bearish trends. The higher level of volatility that comes with bear markets can directly impact American Financial's stock price while adding stress to investors as they watch their shares' value plummet. This usually forces investors to rebalance their portfolios by buying different financial instruments as prices fall.American Financial Fundamentals Vs Peers
Comparing American Financial's fundamentals to the average values of its peers is one of the most widely used and accepted methods of equity analyses. It helps to analyze American Financial's direct or indirect competition across all of the common fundamentals between American Financial and the related equities. This way, we can detect undervalued stocks with similar characteristics as American Financial or determine the stocks which would be an excellent addition to an existing portfolio. Peer analysis of American Financial's fundamental indicators could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing American Financial by comparing valuation metrics with those of similar companies.
| Better Than Average | Worse Than Average | Compare American Financial to competition |
| Fundamentals | American Financial | Peer Average |
| Return On Equity | 0.21 | -0.31 |
| Return On Asset | 0.0249 | -0.14 |
| Profit Margin | 0.11 % | (1.27) % |
| Operating Margin | 0.11 % | (5.51) % |
| Current Valuation | 12.48 B | 16.62 B |
| Shares Outstanding | 83.93 M | 571.82 M |
| Shares Owned By Insiders | 17.74 % | 10.09 % |
| Shares Owned By Institutions | 64.44 % | 39.21 % |
| Number Of Shares Shorted | 1.6 M | 4.71 M |
| Price To Earning | 12.21 X | 28.72 X |
| Price To Book | 2.62 X | 9.51 X |
| Price To Sales | 1.57 X | 11.42 X |
| Revenue | 7.45 B | 9.43 B |
| Gross Profit | 1.46 B | 27.38 B |
| EBITDA | 1.23 B | 3.9 B |
| Net Income | 852 M | 570.98 M |
| Cash And Equivalents | 872 M | 2.7 B |
| Cash Per Share | 9.68 X | 5.01 X |
| Total Debt | 1.48 B | 5.32 B |
| Debt To Equity | 0.43 % | 48.70 % |
| Current Ratio | 1.79 X | 2.16 X |
| Book Value Per Share | 56.10 X | 1.93 K |
| Cash Flow From Operations | 1.97 B | 971.22 M |
| Short Ratio | 4.94 X | 4.00 X |
| Earnings Per Share | 10.66 X | 3.12 X |
| Price To Earnings To Growth | 2.78 X | 4.89 X |
| Target Price | 146.2 | |
| Number Of Employees | 8.5 K | 18.84 K |
| Beta | 0.78 | -0.15 |
| Market Capitalization | 12.42 B | 19.03 B |
| Total Asset | 29.79 B | 29.47 B |
| Retained Earnings | 3.12 B | 9.33 B |
| Annual Yield | 0.02 % |
Note: Disposition of 415 shares by Amy Murray of American Financial at 118.96 subject to Rule 16b-3 [view details]
American Financial Market Momentum
Traders often use several daily momentume indicators to supplement a more traditional technical analysis when analyzing securities such as American . With many different options, investors must choose the best indicators for them and familiarize themselves with how they work. We suggest combining traditional momentum indicators with more near-term forms of technical analysis such as Accumulation Distribution or Daily Balance Of Power. With their quantitative nature, daily value technical indicators can also be incorporated into your automated trading systems.
| Accumulation Distribution | 9562.58 | |||
| Daily Balance Of Power | (0.86) | |||
| Rate Of Daily Change | 0.98 | |||
| Day Median Price | 145.29 | |||
| Day Typical Price | 144.83 | |||
| Price Action Indicator | (2.85) | |||
| Period Momentum Indicator | (2.95) |
About American Financial Buy or Sell Advice
When is the right time to buy or sell American Financial Group? Buying financial instruments such as American Stock isn't very hard. However, what challenging for most investors is doing it at the right time to beat the market. Proper market timing is something most people cannot do without sophisticated tools, which help to isolate the right opportunities. Macroaxis provides hands-on modules to deliver winning trades and diversify your portfolios on a daily basis. Most of our advising modules are very easy to use and apply.
Please read more on our stock advisor page.
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Check out American Financial Analyst Recommendation to compare Macroaxis Buy or Sell Recommendation with the current analyst consensus. To check ratings for multiple equity instruments, please use the Instant Ratings tool. You can also try the Competition Analyzer module to analyze and compare many basic indicators for a group of related or unrelated entities.
Is Multi-line Insurance space expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of American Financial. If investors know American will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about American Financial listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth 0.032 | Dividend Share 2.93 | Earnings Share 10.66 | Revenue Per Share 94.463 | Quarterly Revenue Growth 0.108 |
The market value of American Financial is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of American that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of American Financial's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is American Financial's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because American Financial's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect American Financial's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between American Financial's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if American Financial is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, American Financial's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.