Adtran Inc Stock Buy Hold or Sell Recommendation
| ADTN Stock | USD 9.10 0.43 4.96% |
Given the investment horizon of 90 days and your above-average risk tolerance, our recommendation regarding ADTRAN Inc is 'Hold'. The recommendation algorithm takes into account all of ADTRAN's available fundamental, technical, and predictive indicators you will find on this site.
Check out ADTRAN Analyst Recommendation to compare Macroaxis Buy or Sell Recommendation with the current analyst consensus. To check ratings for multiple equity instruments, please use the Instant Ratings tool. In addition, we conduct extensive research on individual companies such as ADTRAN and provide practical buy, sell, or hold advice based on investors' investing horizon and their risk tolerance towards ADTRAN Inc. Also, note that the market value of any company could be closely tied with the direction of predictive economic indicators such as signals in estimate.
ADTRAN |
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The ADTRAN recommendation should be used to complement the buy-or-sell advice compiled from the current analysts' consensus on ADTRAN Inc. Macroaxis does not own or have any residual interests in ADTRAN Inc or other equities on which the buy-or-sell advice is provided. Please provide your input below to execute ADTRAN's advice using the current market data and latest reported fundamentals.
Time Horizon
Risk Tolerance
 |  |
Hold
Market Performance | Insignificant | Details | |
Volatility | Somewhat reliable | Details | |
Hype Condition | Over hyped | Details | |
Current Valuation | Undervalued | Details | |
Odds Of Distress | Below Average | Details | |
Economic Sensitivity | Actively responds to the market | Details | |
Investor Sentiment | Impartial | Details | |
Analyst Consensus | Strong Buy | Details | |
Financial Strenth (F Score) | Healthy | Details | |
Financial Leverage | Not Rated | Details | |
Reporting Quality (M-Score) | Unlikely Manipulator | Details |
ADTRAN Trading Alerts and Improvement Suggestions
| ADTRAN Inc had very high historical volatility over the last 90 days | |
| The company reported the previous year's revenue of 922.72 M. Net Loss for the year was (441.05 M) with profit before overhead, payroll, taxes, and interest of 336.3 M. | |
| Over 88.0% of the company shares are held by institutions such as insurance companies | |
| Latest headline from businesswire.com: ADTRAN Holdings, Inc. announces CFO transition |
ADTRAN Returns Distribution Density
The distribution of ADTRAN's historical returns is an attempt to chart the uncertainty of ADTRAN's future price movements. The chart of the probability distribution of ADTRAN daily returns describes the distribution of returns around its average expected value. We use ADTRAN Inc price's Value At Risk and its Upside Potential as a relative measure of the distribution. The graph of the distribution of ADTRAN returns is essential to provide solid investment advice for ADTRAN.
| Mean Return | 0.18 | Value At Risk | -5.98 | Potential Upside | 6.96 | Standard Deviation | 3.55 |
Return Density |
| Distribution |
Investment risk management requires an estimate of the probability of extreme price changes. Therefore, the correct representation of the distribution of ADTRAN historical returns presented in an easy-to-digest graphical form helps investors and money managers understand the risk-reward trade-off of different investement strategies.
ADTRAN Stock Institutional Investors
Have you ever been surprised when a price of an equity instrument, such as ADTRAN, soars without any apparent reason. This usually happens because many institutional investors are aggressively trading ADTRAN Inc back and forth among themselves. Companies that invest excess capital in these types of assets may also be included in this term and can influence corporate governance by exercising voting rights in their investments.
| Shares | Tieton Capital Management, Llc | 2024-12-31 | 1.2 M | Morgan Stanley - Brokerage Accounts | 2024-12-31 | 1.2 M | Millennium Management Llc | 2024-12-31 | 1.1 M | Westerly Capital Management Llc | 2024-12-31 | 930 K | Assenagon Asset Management Sa | 2024-12-31 | 925.3 K | Jpmorgan Chase & Co | 2024-12-31 | 863.8 K | Bank Of New York Mellon Corp | 2024-12-31 | 808.2 K | Kovack Advisors Inc | 2024-12-31 | 800 K | Federated Hermes Inc | 2024-12-31 | 779.3 K | Blackrock Inc | 2024-12-31 | 6.9 M | Vanguard Group Inc | 2024-12-31 | 6.6 M |
ADTRAN Cash Flow Accounts
| 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 (projected) | ||
| Change To Inventory | (18.8M) | (15.7M) | (68.3M) | 20.5M | 75.2M | 78.9M | |
| Change In Cash | (13.6M) | (3.4M) | 51.8M | (21.5M) | (9.6M) | (9.1M) | |
| Free Cash Flow | (22.9M) | (2.7M) | (62.0M) | (88.7M) | 70.6M | 74.1M | |
| Depreciation | 16.6M | 16.1M | 67.6M | 112.9M | 91.0M | 95.5M | |
| Other Non Cash Items | (5.5M) | (5.0M) | 20.4M | 91.5M | 301.0M | 316.0M | |
| Dividends Paid | 17.2M | 17.3M | 17.5M | 22.9M | 21.2M | 0.0 | |
| Capital Expenditures | 6.4M | 5.7M | 18.5M | 43.1M | 32.5M | 34.1M | |
| Net Income | 2.4M | (8.6M) | (8.9M) | (267.7M) | (441.0M) | (419.0M) | |
| End Period Cash Flow | 60.2M | 56.8M | 108.6M | 87.2M | 77.6M | 66.9M | |
| Change To Netincome | 28.5M | 5.8M | 681K | (18.8M) | (21.7M) | (20.6M) | |
| Investments | 47.8M | 15.4M | 55.0M | (10.3M) | (62.2M) | (59.1M) | |
| Change Receivables | 28.3M | (12.0M) | (51.1M) | (19.3M) | (17.4M) | (16.5M) |
ADTRAN Greeks
Most traded equities are subject to two types of risk - systematic (i.e., market) and unsystematic (i.e., nonmarket or company-specific) risk. Unsystematic risk is the risk that events specific to ADTRAN or Communications Equipment sector will adversely affect the stock's price. This type of risk can be diversified away by owning several different stocks in different industries whose stock prices have shown a small correlation to each other. On the other hand, systematic risk is the risk that ADTRAN's price will be affected by overall stock market movements and cannot be diversified away. So, no matter how many positions you have, you cannot eliminate market risk. However, you can measure a ADTRAN stock's historical response to market movements and buy it if you are comfortable with its volatility direction. Beta and standard deviation are two commonly used measures to help you make the right decision.
α | Alpha over Dow Jones | 0.35 | |
β | Beta against Dow Jones | 1.65 | |
σ | Overall volatility | 3.64 | |
Ir | Information ratio | 0.08 |
ADTRAN Volatility Alert
ADTRAN Inc shows above-average downside volatility for the selected time horizon. Understanding different market volatility trends often help investors to time the market. Properly using volatility indicators enable traders to measure ADTRAN's stock risk against market volatility during both bullish and bearish trends. The higher level of volatility that comes with bear markets can directly impact ADTRAN's stock price while adding stress to investors as they watch their shares' value plummet. This usually forces investors to rebalance their portfolios by buying different financial instruments as prices fall.ADTRAN Fundamentals Vs Peers
Comparing ADTRAN's fundamentals to the average values of its peers is one of the most widely used and accepted methods of equity analyses. It helps to analyze ADTRAN's direct or indirect competition across all of the common fundamentals between ADTRAN and the related equities. This way, we can detect undervalued stocks with similar characteristics as ADTRAN or determine the stocks which would be an excellent addition to an existing portfolio. Peer analysis of ADTRAN's fundamental indicators could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing ADTRAN by comparing valuation metrics with those of similar companies.
| Better Than Average | Worse Than Average | Compare ADTRAN to competition |
| Fundamentals | ADTRAN | Peer Average |
| Return On Equity | -0.55 | -0.31 |
| Return On Asset | -0.0375 | -0.14 |
| Profit Margin | (0.49) % | (1.27) % |
| Operating Margin | (0.07) % | (5.51) % |
| Current Valuation | 865.46 M | 16.62 B |
| Shares Outstanding | 79.86 M | 571.82 M |
| Shares Owned By Insiders | 1.59 % | 10.09 % |
| Shares Owned By Institutions | 87.74 % | 39.21 % |
| Number Of Shares Shorted | 1.09 M | 4.71 M |
| Price To Earning | 405.00 X | 28.72 X |
| Price To Book | 5.41 X | 9.51 X |
| Price To Sales | 0.79 X | 11.42 X |
| Revenue | 922.72 M | 9.43 B |
| Gross Profit | 336.3 M | 27.38 B |
| EBITDA | (319.23 M) | 3.9 B |
| Net Income | (441.05 M) | 570.98 M |
| Cash And Equivalents | 111.9 M | 2.7 B |
| Cash Per Share | 1.53 X | 5.01 X |
| Total Debt | 215.5 M | 5.32 B |
| Debt To Equity | 0.04 % | 48.70 % |
| Current Ratio | 1.67 X | 2.16 X |
| Book Value Per Share | 1.70 X | 1.93 K |
| Cash Flow From Operations | 103.07 M | 971.22 M |
| Short Ratio | 0.87 X | 4.00 X |
| Earnings Per Share | (5.67) X | 3.12 X |
| Price To Earnings To Growth | 11.04 X | 4.89 X |
| Target Price | 13.2 | |
| Number Of Employees | 3.09 K | 18.84 K |
| Beta | 1.29 | -0.15 |
| Market Capitalization | 726.73 M | 19.03 B |
| Total Asset | 1.18 B | 29.47 B |
| Retained Earnings | (680.99 M) | 9.33 B |
| Working Capital | 316.96 M | 1.48 B |
Note: Disposition of 41906 shares by Thomas Stanton of ADTRAN at 5.78 subject to Rule 16b-3 [view details]
ADTRAN Market Momentum
Traders often use several daily momentume indicators to supplement a more traditional technical analysis when analyzing securities such as ADTRAN . With many different options, investors must choose the best indicators for them and familiarize themselves with how they work. We suggest combining traditional momentum indicators with more near-term forms of technical analysis such as Accumulation Distribution or Daily Balance Of Power. With their quantitative nature, daily value technical indicators can also be incorporated into your automated trading systems.
About ADTRAN Buy or Sell Advice
When is the right time to buy or sell ADTRAN Inc? Buying financial instruments such as ADTRAN Stock isn't very hard. However, what challenging for most investors is doing it at the right time to beat the market. Proper market timing is something most people cannot do without sophisticated tools, which help to isolate the right opportunities. Macroaxis provides hands-on modules to deliver winning trades and diversify your portfolios on a daily basis. Most of our advising modules are very easy to use and apply.
Please read more on our stock advisor page.
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Check out ADTRAN Analyst Recommendation to compare Macroaxis Buy or Sell Recommendation with the current analyst consensus. To check ratings for multiple equity instruments, please use the Instant Ratings tool. You can also try the CEOs Directory module to screen CEOs from public companies around the world.
Is Communications Equipment space expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of ADTRAN. If investors know ADTRAN will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about ADTRAN listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth (0.60) | Earnings Share (5.67) | Revenue Per Share | Quarterly Revenue Growth 0.077 | Return On Assets |
The market value of ADTRAN Inc is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of ADTRAN that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of ADTRAN's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is ADTRAN's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because ADTRAN's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect ADTRAN's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between ADTRAN's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if ADTRAN is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, ADTRAN's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.