Tsogo Sun (South Africa) Probability of Future Stock Price Finishing Under 1248.53
| TSG Stock | 1,016 12.00 1.20% |
Tsogo |
Tsogo Sun Target Price Odds to finish below 1248.53
The tendency of Tsogo Stock price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
| Current Price | Horizon | Target Price | Odds to stay under 1,249 after 90 days |
| 1,016 | 90 days | 1,249 | about 91.51 |
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of Tsogo Sun to stay under 1,249 after 90 days from now is about 91.51 (This Tsogo Sun probability density function shows the probability of Tsogo Stock to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) . Probability of Tsogo Sun price to stay between its current price of 1,016 and 1,249 at the end of the 90-day period is about 86.43 .
Assuming the 90 days trading horizon Tsogo Sun has a beta of -0.49. This usually implies as returns on the benchmark increase, returns on holding Tsogo Sun are expected to decrease at a much lower rate. During a bear market, however, Tsogo Sun is likely to outperform the market. Additionally Tsogo Sun has a negative alpha, implying that the risk taken by holding this instrument is not justified. The company is significantly underperforming the Dow Jones Industrial. Tsogo Sun Price Density |
| Price |
Predictive Modules for Tsogo Sun
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Tsogo Sun. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Tsogo Sun Risk Indicators
For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. Tsogo Sun is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the Tsogo Sun's value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold Tsogo Sun, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of Tsogo Sun within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.α | Alpha over Dow Jones | -0.29 | |
β | Beta against Dow Jones | -0.49 | |
σ | Overall volatility | 77.29 | |
Ir | Information ratio | -0.2 |
Tsogo Sun Alerts and Suggestions
In today's market, stock alerts give investors the competitive edge they need to time the market and increase returns. Checking the ongoing alerts of Tsogo Sun for significant developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Suggestions and notifications for Tsogo Sun can help investors quickly react to important events or material changes in technical or fundamental conditions and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.| Tsogo Sun generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days | |
| About 53.0% of the company outstanding shares are owned by corporate insiders |
Tsogo Sun Price Density Drivers
Market volatility will typically increase when nervous long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the market lower. The future price of Tsogo Stock often depends not only on the future outlook of the current and potential Tsogo Sun's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Tsogo Sun's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 1 B | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 852 M |
Tsogo Sun Technical Analysis
Tsogo Sun's future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. Tsogo Stock technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of Tsogo Sun. In general, you should focus on analyzing Tsogo Stock price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.
Tsogo Sun Predictive Forecast Models
Tsogo Sun's time-series forecasting models is one of many Tsogo Sun's stock analysis techniques aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models are widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties, e.g., the mean and standard deviation, are not constant over time, but instead, these metrics vary over time. This non-stationary Tsogo Sun's historical data is usually called time series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the stock market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.
Things to note about Tsogo Sun
Checking the ongoing alerts about Tsogo Sun for important developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Our stock alerts and notifications screener for Tsogo Sun help investors to be notified of important events, changes in technical or fundamental conditions, and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
| Tsogo Sun generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days | |
| About 53.0% of the company outstanding shares are owned by corporate insiders |
Other Information on Investing in Tsogo Stock
Tsogo Sun financial ratios help investors to determine whether Tsogo Stock is cheap or expensive when compared to a particular measure, such as profits or enterprise value. In other words, they help investors to determine the cost of investment in Tsogo with respect to the benefits of owning Tsogo Sun security.