Tsogo Sun Stock Forecast - Naive Prediction

TSG Stock   1,009  6.00  0.59%   
The Naive Prediction forecasted value of Tsogo Sun on the next trading day is expected to be 1,026 with a mean absolute deviation of 15.16 and the sum of the absolute errors of 924.95. Tsogo Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon. Investors can use this forecasting interface to forecast Tsogo Sun stock prices and determine the direction of Tsogo Sun's future trends based on various well-known forecasting models. We recommend always using this module together with an analysis of Tsogo Sun's historical fundamentals, such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns.
  
A naive forecasting model for Tsogo Sun is a special case of the moving average forecasting where the number of periods used for smoothing is one. Therefore, the forecast of Tsogo Sun value for a given trading day is simply the observed value for the previous period. Due to the simplistic nature of the naive forecasting model, it can only be used to forecast up to one period.

Tsogo Sun Naive Prediction Price Forecast For the 25th of December

Given 90 days horizon, the Naive Prediction forecasted value of Tsogo Sun on the next trading day is expected to be 1,026 with a mean absolute deviation of 15.16, mean absolute percentage error of 374.87, and the sum of the absolute errors of 924.95.
Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Tsogo Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Tsogo Sun's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).

Tsogo Sun Stock Forecast Pattern

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Tsogo Sun Forecasted Value

In the context of forecasting Tsogo Sun's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Tsogo Sun's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 1,024 and 1,028, respectively. We have considered Tsogo Sun's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Market Value
1,009
1,026
Expected Value
1,028
Upside

Model Predictive Factors

The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Naive Prediction forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Tsogo Sun stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Tsogo Sun stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.
AICAkaike Information Criteria124.0371
BiasArithmetic mean of the errors None
MADMean absolute deviation15.1631
MAPEMean absolute percentage error0.0135
SAESum of the absolute errors924.9493
This model is not at all useful as a medium-long range forecasting tool of Tsogo Sun. This model is simplistic and is included partly for completeness and partly because of its simplicity. It is unlikely that you'll want to use this model directly to predict Tsogo Sun. Instead, consider using either the moving average model or the more general weighted moving average model with a higher (i.e., greater than 1) number of periods, and possibly a different set of weights.

Predictive Modules for Tsogo Sun

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Tsogo Sun. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimatedHigh
1,0071,0091,011
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowRealHigh
891.33892.951,110
Details

Other Forecasting Options for Tsogo Sun

For every potential investor in Tsogo, whether a beginner or expert, Tsogo Sun's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Tsogo Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Tsogo. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Tsogo Sun's price trends.

Tsogo Sun Related Equities

One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Tsogo Sun stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Tsogo Sun could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Tsogo Sun by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
 Risk & Return  Correlation

Tsogo Sun Technical and Predictive Analytics

The stock market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of Tsogo Sun's price movements, a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of Tsogo Sun's current price.

Tsogo Sun Market Strength Events

Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Tsogo Sun stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Tsogo Sun shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Tsogo Sun stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Tsogo Sun entry and exit signals to maximize returns.

Tsogo Sun Risk Indicators

The analysis of Tsogo Sun's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Tsogo Sun's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting tsogo stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.

Also Currently Popular

Analyzing currently trending equities could be an opportunity to develop a better portfolio based on different market momentums that they can trigger. Utilizing the top trending stocks is also useful when creating a market-neutral strategy or pair trading technique involving a short or a long position in a currently trending equity.

Other Information on Investing in Tsogo Stock

Tsogo Sun financial ratios help investors to determine whether Tsogo Stock is cheap or expensive when compared to a particular measure, such as profits or enterprise value. In other words, they help investors to determine the cost of investment in Tsogo with respect to the benefits of owning Tsogo Sun security.