Toll Brothers (Germany) Probability of Future Stock Price Finishing Under 77.74
| TLK Stock | EUR 120.70 0.55 0.46% |
Toll |
Toll Brothers Target Price Odds to finish below 77.74
The tendency of Toll Stock price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
| Current Price | Horizon | Target Price | Odds to drop to € 77.74 or more in 90 days |
| 120.70 | 90 days | 77.74 | near 1 |
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of Toll Brothers to drop to € 77.74 or more in 90 days from now is near 1 (This Toll Brothers probability density function shows the probability of Toll Stock to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) . Probability of Toll Brothers price to stay between € 77.74 and its current price of €120.7 at the end of the 90-day period is about 1.52 .
Assuming the 90 days horizon Toll Brothers has a beta of 0.79. This usually implies as returns on the market go up, Toll Brothers average returns are expected to increase less than the benchmark. However, during the bear market, the loss on holding Toll Brothers will be expected to be much smaller as well. Additionally Toll Brothers has a negative alpha, implying that the risk taken by holding this instrument is not justified. The company is significantly underperforming the Dow Jones Industrial. Toll Brothers Price Density |
| Price |
Predictive Modules for Toll Brothers
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Toll Brothers. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Toll Brothers Risk Indicators
For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. Toll Brothers is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the Toll Brothers' value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold Toll Brothers, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of Toll Brothers within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.α | Alpha over Dow Jones | -0.22 | |
β | Beta against Dow Jones | 0.79 | |
σ | Overall volatility | 9.00 | |
Ir | Information ratio | -0.09 |
Toll Brothers Alerts and Suggestions
In today's market, stock alerts give investors the competitive edge they need to time the market and increase returns. Checking the ongoing alerts of Toll Brothers for significant developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Suggestions and notifications for Toll Brothers can help investors quickly react to important events or material changes in technical or fundamental conditions and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.| Toll Brothers generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days | |
| Toll Brothers has accumulated €3.33 Billion in debt which can lead to volatile earnings | |
| Over 96.0% of the company shares are owned by institutional investors |
Toll Brothers Price Density Drivers
Market volatility will typically increase when nervous long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the market lower. The future price of Toll Stock often depends not only on the future outlook of the current and potential Toll Brothers' investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Toll Brothers' indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 113.3 M |
Toll Brothers Technical Analysis
Toll Brothers' future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. Toll Stock technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of Toll Brothers. In general, you should focus on analyzing Toll Stock price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.
Toll Brothers Predictive Forecast Models
Toll Brothers' time-series forecasting models is one of many Toll Brothers' stock analysis techniques aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models are widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties, e.g., the mean and standard deviation, are not constant over time, but instead, these metrics vary over time. This non-stationary Toll Brothers' historical data is usually called time series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the stock market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.
Things to note about Toll Brothers
Checking the ongoing alerts about Toll Brothers for important developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Our stock alerts and notifications screener for Toll Brothers help investors to be notified of important events, changes in technical or fundamental conditions, and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
| Toll Brothers generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days | |
| Toll Brothers has accumulated €3.33 Billion in debt which can lead to volatile earnings | |
| Over 96.0% of the company shares are owned by institutional investors |
Additional Information and Resources on Investing in Toll Stock
When determining whether Toll Brothers is a strong investment it is important to analyze Toll Brothers' competitive position within its industry, examining market share, product or service uniqueness, and competitive advantages. Beyond financials and market position, potential investors should also consider broader economic conditions, industry trends, and any regulatory or geopolitical factors that may impact Toll Brothers' future performance. For an informed investment choice regarding Toll Stock, refer to the following important reports:Check out Toll Brothers Backtesting, Toll Brothers Valuation, Toll Brothers Correlation, Toll Brothers Hype Analysis, Toll Brothers Volatility, Toll Brothers History as well as Toll Brothers Performance. For more detail on how to invest in Toll Stock please use our How to Invest in Toll Brothers guide.You can also try the Idea Optimizer module to use advanced portfolio builder with pre-computed micro ideas to build optimal portfolio .