Skyward Specialty Insurance Stock Probability of Future Stock Price Finishing Under 17.88
| SKWD Stock | 51.00 1.10 2.20% |
Skyward |
Skyward Specialty Target Price Odds to finish below 17.88
The tendency of Skyward Stock price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
| Current Price | Horizon | Target Price | Odds to drop to 17.88 or more in 90 days |
| 51.00 | 90 days | 17.88 | near 1 |
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of Skyward Specialty to drop to 17.88 or more in 90 days from now is near 1 (This Skyward Specialty Insurance probability density function shows the probability of Skyward Stock to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) . Probability of Skyward Specialty price to stay between 17.88 and its current price of 51.0 at the end of the 90-day period is about 78.72 .
Given the investment horizon of 90 days the stock has the beta coefficient of 1.39 . This usually implies as the benchmark fluctuates upward, the company is expected to outperform it on average. However, if the benchmark returns are projected to be negative, Skyward Specialty will likely underperform. Additionally Skyward Specialty Insurance has an alpha of 0.3202, implying that it can generate a 0.32 percent excess return over Dow Jones Industrial after adjusting for the inherited market risk (beta). Skyward Specialty Price Density |
| Price |
Predictive Modules for Skyward Specialty
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Skyward Specialty. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Skyward Specialty's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Skyward Specialty Risk Indicators
For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. Skyward Specialty is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the Skyward Specialty's value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold Skyward Specialty Insurance, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of Skyward Specialty within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.α | Alpha over Dow Jones | 0.32 | |
β | Beta against Dow Jones | 1.39 | |
σ | Overall volatility | 4.45 | |
Ir | Information ratio | 0.17 |
Skyward Specialty Alerts and Suggestions
In today's market, stock alerts give investors the competitive edge they need to time the market and increase returns. Checking the ongoing alerts of Skyward Specialty for significant developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Suggestions and notifications for Skyward Specialty can help investors quickly react to important events or material changes in technical or fundamental conditions and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.| Skyward Specialty has a poor financial position based on the latest SEC disclosures | |
| Over 99.0% of the company shares are owned by institutional investors | |
| Latest headline from zacks.com: Skyward Specialty Trading at a Premium How Should You Play the Stock |
Skyward Specialty Price Density Drivers
Market volatility will typically increase when nervous long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the market lower. The future price of Skyward Stock often depends not only on the future outlook of the current and potential Skyward Specialty's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Skyward Specialty's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 38.3 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 863.9 M |
Skyward Specialty Technical Analysis
Skyward Specialty's future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. Skyward Stock technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of Skyward Specialty Insurance. In general, you should focus on analyzing Skyward Stock price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.
Skyward Specialty Predictive Forecast Models
Skyward Specialty's time-series forecasting models is one of many Skyward Specialty's stock analysis techniques aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models are widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties, e.g., the mean and standard deviation, are not constant over time, but instead, these metrics vary over time. This non-stationary Skyward Specialty's historical data is usually called time series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the stock market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.
Things to note about Skyward Specialty
Checking the ongoing alerts about Skyward Specialty for important developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Our stock alerts and notifications screener for Skyward Specialty help investors to be notified of important events, changes in technical or fundamental conditions, and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
| Skyward Specialty has a poor financial position based on the latest SEC disclosures | |
| Over 99.0% of the company shares are owned by institutional investors | |
| Latest headline from zacks.com: Skyward Specialty Trading at a Premium How Should You Play the Stock |
Check out Skyward Specialty Backtesting, Skyward Specialty Valuation, Skyward Specialty Correlation, Skyward Specialty Hype Analysis, Skyward Specialty Volatility, Skyward Specialty History as well as Skyward Specialty Performance. You can also try the Portfolio Dashboard module to portfolio dashboard that provides centralized access to all your investments.
Is Property & Casualty Insurance space expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Skyward Specialty. If investors know Skyward will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Skyward Specialty listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth 0.561 | Earnings Share 3.27 | Revenue Per Share 27.694 | Quarterly Revenue Growth 0.258 | Return On Assets 0.0353 |
The market value of Skyward Specialty is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Skyward that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Skyward Specialty's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Skyward Specialty's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Skyward Specialty's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Skyward Specialty's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Skyward Specialty's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Skyward Specialty is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Skyward Specialty's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.