National Fuel Gas Stock Probability of Future Stock Price Finishing Under 56.69
| NFG Stock | USD 60.36 0.24 0.40% |
National |
National Fuel Target Price Odds to finish below 56.69
The tendency of National Stock price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
| Current Price | Horizon | Target Price | Odds to drop to $ 56.69 or more in 90 days |
| 60.36 | 90 days | 56.69 | near 1 |
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of National Fuel to drop to $ 56.69 or more in 90 days from now is near 1 (This National Fuel Gas probability density function shows the probability of National Stock to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) . Probability of National Fuel Gas price to stay between $ 56.69 and its current price of $60.36 at the end of the 90-day period is about 26.49 .
Considering the 90-day investment horizon National Fuel has a beta of 0.16. This indicates as returns on the market go up, National Fuel average returns are expected to increase less than the benchmark. However, during the bear market, the loss on holding National Fuel Gas will be expected to be much smaller as well. Additionally National Fuel Gas has an alpha of 0.0165, implying that it can generate a 0.0165 percent excess return over Dow Jones Industrial after adjusting for the inherited market risk (beta). National Fuel Price Density |
| Price |
Predictive Modules for National Fuel
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as National Fuel Gas. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.National Fuel Risk Indicators
For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. National Fuel is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the National Fuel's value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold National Fuel Gas, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of National Fuel within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.α | Alpha over Dow Jones | 0.02 | |
β | Beta against Dow Jones | 0.16 | |
σ | Overall volatility | 1.34 | |
Ir | Information ratio | -0.0016 |
National Fuel Alerts and Suggestions
In today's market, stock alerts give investors the competitive edge they need to time the market and increase returns. Checking the ongoing alerts of National Fuel for significant developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Suggestions and notifications for National Fuel Gas can help investors quickly react to important events or material changes in technical or fundamental conditions and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.| National Fuel Gas has 2.78 B in debt with debt to equity (D/E) ratio of 1.52, which is OK given its current industry classification. National Fuel Gas has a current ratio of 0.52, suggesting that it has not enough short term capital to pay financial commitments when the payables are due. Note however, debt could still be an excellent tool for National to invest in growth at high rates of return. | |
| National Fuel Gas has a strong financial position based on the latest SEC filings | |
| Over 77.0% of National Fuel shares are owned by institutional investors | |
| Latest headline from zerohedge.com: New York To Charge Fossil Fuel Companies Billions For Greenhouse Gas Emissions |
National Fuel Price Density Drivers
Market volatility will typically increase when nervous long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the market lower. The future price of National Stock often depends not only on the future outlook of the current and potential National Fuel's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. National Fuel's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 92.3 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 38.2 M |
National Fuel Technical Analysis
National Fuel's future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. National Stock technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of National Fuel Gas. In general, you should focus on analyzing National Stock price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.
National Fuel Predictive Forecast Models
National Fuel's time-series forecasting models is one of many National Fuel's stock analysis techniques aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models are widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties, e.g., the mean and standard deviation, are not constant over time, but instead, these metrics vary over time. This non-stationary National Fuel's historical data is usually called time series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the stock market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.
Things to note about National Fuel Gas
Checking the ongoing alerts about National Fuel for important developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Our stock alerts and notifications screener for National Fuel Gas help investors to be notified of important events, changes in technical or fundamental conditions, and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
| National Fuel Gas has 2.78 B in debt with debt to equity (D/E) ratio of 1.52, which is OK given its current industry classification. National Fuel Gas has a current ratio of 0.52, suggesting that it has not enough short term capital to pay financial commitments when the payables are due. Note however, debt could still be an excellent tool for National to invest in growth at high rates of return. | |
| National Fuel Gas has a strong financial position based on the latest SEC filings | |
| Over 77.0% of National Fuel shares are owned by institutional investors | |
| Latest headline from zerohedge.com: New York To Charge Fossil Fuel Companies Billions For Greenhouse Gas Emissions |
Check out National Fuel Backtesting, National Fuel Valuation, National Fuel Correlation, National Fuel Hype Analysis, National Fuel Volatility, National Fuel History as well as National Fuel Performance. You can also try the Risk-Return Analysis module to view associations between returns expected from investment and the risk you assume.
Is Gas Utilities space expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of National Fuel. If investors know National will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about National Fuel listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth 0.176 | Dividend Share 2.02 | Earnings Share 0.84 | Revenue Per Share 21.187 | Quarterly Revenue Growth 0.008 |
The market value of National Fuel Gas is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of National that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of National Fuel's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is National Fuel's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because National Fuel's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect National Fuel's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between National Fuel's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if National Fuel is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, National Fuel's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.