National Fuel (Germany) Probability of Future Stock Price Finishing Under 54.00
| NFG Stock | EUR 59.00 1.00 1.67% |
National |
National Fuel Target Price Odds to finish below 54.00
The tendency of National Stock price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
| Current Price | Horizon | Target Price | Odds to drop to € 54.00 or more in 90 days |
| 59.00 | 90 days | 54.00 | about 9.54 |
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of National Fuel to drop to € 54.00 or more in 90 days from now is about 9.54 (This National Fuel Gas probability density function shows the probability of National Stock to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) . Probability of National Fuel Gas price to stay between € 54.00 and its current price of €59.0 at the end of the 90-day period is about 78.81 .
Assuming the 90 days horizon National Fuel Gas has a beta of -0.0152. This indicates as returns on the benchmark increase, returns on holding National Fuel are expected to decrease at a much lower rate. During a bear market, however, National Fuel Gas is likely to outperform the market. Additionally National Fuel Gas has an alpha of 0.1621, implying that it can generate a 0.16 percent excess return over Dow Jones Industrial after adjusting for the inherited market risk (beta). National Fuel Price Density |
| Price |
Predictive Modules for National Fuel
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as National Fuel Gas. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.National Fuel Risk Indicators
For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. National Fuel is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the National Fuel's value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold National Fuel Gas, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of National Fuel within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.α | Alpha over Dow Jones | 0.16 | |
β | Beta against Dow Jones | -0.02 | |
σ | Overall volatility | 2.00 | |
Ir | Information ratio | 0.1 |
National Fuel Alerts and Suggestions
In today's market, stock alerts give investors the competitive edge they need to time the market and increase returns. Checking the ongoing alerts of National Fuel for significant developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Suggestions and notifications for National Fuel Gas can help investors quickly react to important events or material changes in technical or fundamental conditions and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.| National Fuel Gas has accumulated 2.08 B in total debt with debt to equity ratio (D/E) of 1.31, which is about average as compared to similar companies. National Fuel Gas has a current ratio of 0.72, indicating that it has a negative working capital and may not be able to pay financial obligations in time and when they become due. Debt can assist National Fuel until it has trouble settling it off, either with new capital or with free cash flow. So, National Fuel's shareholders could walk away with nothing if the company can't fulfill its legal obligations to repay debt. However, a more frequent occurrence is when companies like National Fuel Gas sell additional shares at bargain prices, diluting existing shareholders. Debt, in this case, can be an excellent and much better tool for National to invest in growth at high rates of return. When we think about National Fuel's use of debt, we should always consider it together with cash and equity. | |
| Over 77.0% of National Fuel shares are owned by institutional investors |
National Fuel Price Density Drivers
Market volatility will typically increase when nervous long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the market lower. The future price of National Stock often depends not only on the future outlook of the current and potential National Fuel's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. National Fuel's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 91.5 M |
National Fuel Technical Analysis
National Fuel's future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. National Stock technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of National Fuel Gas. In general, you should focus on analyzing National Stock price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.
National Fuel Predictive Forecast Models
National Fuel's time-series forecasting models is one of many National Fuel's stock analysis techniques aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models are widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties, e.g., the mean and standard deviation, are not constant over time, but instead, these metrics vary over time. This non-stationary National Fuel's historical data is usually called time series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the stock market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.
Things to note about National Fuel Gas
Checking the ongoing alerts about National Fuel for important developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Our stock alerts and notifications screener for National Fuel Gas help investors to be notified of important events, changes in technical or fundamental conditions, and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
| National Fuel Gas has accumulated 2.08 B in total debt with debt to equity ratio (D/E) of 1.31, which is about average as compared to similar companies. National Fuel Gas has a current ratio of 0.72, indicating that it has a negative working capital and may not be able to pay financial obligations in time and when they become due. Debt can assist National Fuel until it has trouble settling it off, either with new capital or with free cash flow. So, National Fuel's shareholders could walk away with nothing if the company can't fulfill its legal obligations to repay debt. However, a more frequent occurrence is when companies like National Fuel Gas sell additional shares at bargain prices, diluting existing shareholders. Debt, in this case, can be an excellent and much better tool for National to invest in growth at high rates of return. When we think about National Fuel's use of debt, we should always consider it together with cash and equity. | |
| Over 77.0% of National Fuel shares are owned by institutional investors |
Additional Information and Resources on Investing in National Stock
When determining whether National Fuel Gas is a strong investment it is important to analyze National Fuel's competitive position within its industry, examining market share, product or service uniqueness, and competitive advantages. Beyond financials and market position, potential investors should also consider broader economic conditions, industry trends, and any regulatory or geopolitical factors that may impact National Fuel's future performance. For an informed investment choice regarding National Stock, refer to the following important reports:Check out National Fuel Backtesting, National Fuel Valuation, National Fuel Correlation, National Fuel Hype Analysis, National Fuel Volatility, National Fuel History as well as National Fuel Performance. You can also try the FinTech Suite module to use AI to screen and filter profitable investment opportunities.