National Fuel (Germany) Market Value
| NFG Stock | EUR 58.50 1.00 1.68% |
| Symbol | National |
National Fuel 'What if' Analysis
In the world of financial modeling, what-if analysis is part of sensitivity analysis performed to test how changes in assumptions impact individual outputs in a model. When applied to National Fuel's stock what-if analysis refers to the analyzing how the change in your past investing horizon will affect the profitability against the current market value of National Fuel.
| 04/11/2024 |
| 01/06/2025 |
If you would invest 0.00 in National Fuel on April 11, 2024 and sell it all today you would earn a total of 0.00 from holding National Fuel Gas or generate 0.0% return on investment in National Fuel over 270 days. National Fuel is related to or competes with Cleanaway Waste, Columbia Sportswear, Yuexiu Transport, USWE SPORTS, Air Transport, SCIENCE IN, and Waste Management. National Fuel Gas Company operates as a diversified energy company More
National Fuel Upside/Downside Indicators
Understanding different market momentum indicators often help investors to time their next move. Potential upside and downside technical ratios enable traders to measure National Fuel's stock current market value against overall market sentiment and can be a good tool during both bulling and bearish trends. Here we outline some of the essential indicators to assess National Fuel Gas upside and downside potential and time the market with a certain degree of confidence.
| Downside Deviation | 1.3 | |||
| Information Ratio | 0.0853 | |||
| Maximum Drawdown | 7.22 | |||
| Value At Risk | (1.80) | |||
| Potential Upside | 2.78 |
National Fuel Market Risk Indicators
Today, many novice investors tend to focus exclusively on investment returns with little concern for National Fuel's investment risk. Other traders do consider volatility but use just one or two very conventional indicators such as National Fuel's standard deviation. In reality, there are many statistical measures that can use National Fuel historical prices to predict the future National Fuel's volatility.| Risk Adjusted Performance | 0.0853 | |||
| Jensen Alpha | 0.1557 | |||
| Total Risk Alpha | 0.1272 | |||
| Sortino Ratio | 0.1072 | |||
| Treynor Ratio | (0.53) |
National Fuel Gas Backtested Returns
At this point, National Fuel is very steady. National Fuel Gas has Sharpe Ratio of 0.0971, which conveys that the firm had a 0.0971% return per unit of risk over the last 3 months. We have found twenty-seven technical indicators for National Fuel, which you can use to evaluate the volatility of the firm. Please verify National Fuel's Risk Adjusted Performance of 0.0853, mean deviation of 1.19, and Downside Deviation of 1.3 to check out if the risk estimate we provide is consistent with the expected return of 0.16%. National Fuel has a performance score of 7 on a scale of 0 to 100. The company secures a Beta (Market Risk) of -0.29, which conveys not very significant fluctuations relative to the market. As returns on the market increase, returns on owning National Fuel are expected to decrease at a much lower rate. During the bear market, National Fuel is likely to outperform the market. National Fuel Gas right now secures a risk of 1.66%. Please verify National Fuel Gas maximum drawdown, potential upside, and the relationship between the treynor ratio and value at risk , to decide if National Fuel Gas will be following its current price movements.
Auto-correlation | 0.58 |
Modest predictability
National Fuel Gas has modest predictability. Overlapping area represents the amount of predictability between National Fuel time series from 11th of April 2024 to 24th of August 2024 and 24th of August 2024 to 6th of January 2025. The more autocorrelation exist between current time interval and its lagged values, the more accurately you can make projection about the future pattern of National Fuel Gas price movement. The serial correlation of 0.58 indicates that roughly 58.0% of current National Fuel price fluctuation can be explain by its past prices.
| Correlation Coefficient | 0.58 | |
| Spearman Rank Test | 0.67 | |
| Residual Average | 0.0 | |
| Price Variance | 5.96 |
National Fuel Gas lagged returns against current returns
Autocorrelation, which is National Fuel stock's lagged correlation, explains the relationship between observations of its time series of returns over different periods of time. The observations are said to be independent if autocorrelation is zero. Autocorrelation is calculated as a function of mean and variance and can have practical application in predicting National Fuel's stock expected returns. We can calculate the autocorrelation of National Fuel returns to help us make a trade decision. For example, suppose you find that National Fuel has exhibited high autocorrelation historically, and you observe that the stock is moving up for the past few days. In that case, you can expect the price movement to match the lagging time series.
Current and Lagged Values |
| Timeline |
National Fuel regressed lagged prices vs. current prices
Serial correlation can be approximated by using the Durbin-Watson (DW) test. The correlation can be either positive or negative. If National Fuel stock is displaying a positive serial correlation, investors will expect a positive pattern to continue. However, if National Fuel stock is observed to have a negative serial correlation, investors will generally project negative sentiment on having a locked-in long position in National Fuel stock over time.
Current vs Lagged Prices |
| Timeline |
National Fuel Lagged Returns
When evaluating National Fuel's market value, investors can use the concept of autocorrelation to see how much of an impact past prices of National Fuel stock have on its future price. National Fuel autocorrelation represents the degree of similarity between a given time horizon and a lagged version of the same horizon over the previous time interval. In other words, National Fuel autocorrelation shows the relationship between National Fuel stock current value and its past values and can show if there is a momentum factor associated with investing in National Fuel Gas.
Regressed Prices |
| Timeline |
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Additional Information and Resources on Investing in National Stock
When determining whether National Fuel Gas is a strong investment it is important to analyze National Fuel's competitive position within its industry, examining market share, product or service uniqueness, and competitive advantages. Beyond financials and market position, potential investors should also consider broader economic conditions, industry trends, and any regulatory or geopolitical factors that may impact National Fuel's future performance. For an informed investment choice regarding National Stock, refer to the following important reports:Check out National Fuel Correlation, National Fuel Volatility and National Fuel Alpha and Beta module to complement your research on National Fuel. You can also try the Money Flow Index module to determine momentum by analyzing Money Flow Index and other technical indicators.
National Fuel technical stock analysis exercises models and trading practices based on price and volume transformations, such as the moving averages, relative strength index, regressions, price and return correlations, business cycles, stock market cycles, or different charting patterns.