Mueller Water Products Stock Probability of Future Stock Price Finishing Under 23.78

MWA Stock  USD 25.26  0.32  1.25%   
Mueller Water's future price is the expected price of Mueller Water instrument. It is based on its current growth rate as well as the projected cash flow expected by the investors. This tool provides a mechanism to make assumptions about the upside potential and downside risk of Mueller Water Products performance during a given time horizon utilizing its historical volatility. Check out Mueller Water Backtesting, Mueller Water Valuation, Mueller Water Correlation, Mueller Water Hype Analysis, Mueller Water Volatility, Mueller Water History as well as Mueller Water Performance.
  
At present, Mueller Water's Price To Sales Ratio is projected to increase slightly based on the last few years of reporting. The current year's Price Earnings Ratio is expected to grow to 36.87, whereas Price Book Value Ratio is forecasted to decline to 2.18. Please specify Mueller Water's target price for which you would like Mueller Water odds to be computed.

Mueller Water Target Price Odds to finish below 23.78

The tendency of Mueller Stock price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
Current PriceHorizonTarget PriceOdds to drop to $ 23.78  or more in 90 days
 25.26 90 days 23.78 
about 78.15
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of Mueller Water to drop to $ 23.78  or more in 90 days from now is about 78.15 (This Mueller Water Products probability density function shows the probability of Mueller Stock to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) . Probability of Mueller Water Products price to stay between $ 23.78  and its current price of $25.26 at the end of the 90-day period is about 16.14 .
Considering the 90-day investment horizon Mueller Water has a beta of 0.22. This indicates as returns on the market go up, Mueller Water average returns are expected to increase less than the benchmark. However, during the bear market, the loss on holding Mueller Water Products will be expected to be much smaller as well. Additionally Mueller Water Products has an alpha of 0.2799, implying that it can generate a 0.28 percent excess return over Dow Jones Industrial after adjusting for the inherited market risk (beta).
   Mueller Water Price Density   
       Price  

Predictive Modules for Mueller Water

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Mueller Water Products. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Mueller Water's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimatedHigh
23.1224.9226.72
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowRealHigh
19.8221.6227.79
Details
Naive
Forecast
LowNextHigh
22.6824.4826.28
Details
6 Analysts
Consensus
LowTargetHigh
13.8815.2516.93
Details

Mueller Water Risk Indicators

For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. Mueller Water is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the Mueller Water's value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold Mueller Water Products, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of Mueller Water within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.
α
Alpha over Dow Jones
0.28
β
Beta against Dow Jones0.22
σ
Overall volatility
1.83
Ir
Information ratio 0.11

Mueller Water Alerts and Suggestions

In today's market, stock alerts give investors the competitive edge they need to time the market and increase returns. Checking the ongoing alerts of Mueller Water for significant developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Suggestions and notifications for Mueller Water Products can help investors quickly react to important events or material changes in technical or fundamental conditions and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
Mueller Water is unlikely to experience financial distress in the next 2 years
Over 95.0% of the company shares are owned by institutional investors
On 20th of November 2024 Mueller Water paid $ 0.067 per share dividend to its current shareholders
Latest headline from finance.yahoo.com: Mueller Water Products, Inc. Shares Could Be 30 percent Below Their Intrinsic Value Estimate

Mueller Water Price Density Drivers

Market volatility will typically increase when nervous long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the market lower. The future price of Mueller Stock often depends not only on the future outlook of the current and potential Mueller Water's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Mueller Water's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
Common Stock Shares Outstanding156.9 M
Cash And Short Term Investments309.9 M

Mueller Water Technical Analysis

Mueller Water's future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. Mueller Stock technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of Mueller Water Products. In general, you should focus on analyzing Mueller Stock price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.

Mueller Water Predictive Forecast Models

Mueller Water's time-series forecasting models is one of many Mueller Water's stock analysis techniques aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models are widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties, e.g., the mean and standard deviation, are not constant over time, but instead, these metrics vary over time. This non-stationary Mueller Water's historical data is usually called time series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the stock market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.

Things to note about Mueller Water Products

Checking the ongoing alerts about Mueller Water for important developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Our stock alerts and notifications screener for Mueller Water Products help investors to be notified of important events, changes in technical or fundamental conditions, and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
Mueller Water is unlikely to experience financial distress in the next 2 years
Over 95.0% of the company shares are owned by institutional investors
On 20th of November 2024 Mueller Water paid $ 0.067 per share dividend to its current shareholders
Latest headline from finance.yahoo.com: Mueller Water Products, Inc. Shares Could Be 30 percent Below Their Intrinsic Value Estimate
When determining whether Mueller Water Products offers a strong return on investment in its stock, a comprehensive analysis is essential. The process typically begins with a thorough review of Mueller Water's financial statements, including income statements, balance sheets, and cash flow statements, to assess its financial health. Key financial ratios are used to gauge profitability, efficiency, and growth potential of Mueller Water Products Stock. Outlined below are crucial reports that will aid in making a well-informed decision on Mueller Water Products Stock:
Is Industrial Machinery & Supplies & Components space expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Mueller Water. If investors know Mueller will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Mueller Water listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth
(0.45)
Dividend Share
0.256
Earnings Share
0.74
Revenue Per Share
8.433
Quarterly Revenue Growth
0.155
The market value of Mueller Water Products is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Mueller that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Mueller Water's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Mueller Water's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Mueller Water's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Mueller Water's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Mueller Water's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Mueller Water is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Mueller Water's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.