Mueller Water Stock Forecast - Naive Prediction
| MWA Stock | USD 24.76 0.02 0.08% |
The Naive Prediction forecasted value of Mueller Water Products on the next trading day is expected to be 24.01 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.45 and the sum of the absolute errors of 28.12. Mueller Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon. Investors can use this forecasting interface to forecast Mueller Water stock prices and determine the direction of Mueller Water Products's future trends based on various well-known forecasting models. We recommend always using this module together with an analysis of Mueller Water's historical fundamentals, such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns.
Mueller |
Mueller Water Cash Forecast
Forecasting cash, or other financial indicators, requires analysts to apply different statistical methods, techniques, and algorithms to find hidden patterns within the Mueller Water's financial statements to predict how it will affect future prices.
Cash | First Reported 2005-12-31 | Previous Quarter 243.3 M | Current Value 309.9 M | Quarterly Volatility 86.9 M |
Mueller Water Naive Prediction Price Forecast For the 13th of December 2024
Given 90 days horizon, the Naive Prediction forecasted value of Mueller Water Products on the next trading day is expected to be 24.01 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.45, mean absolute percentage error of 0.39, and the sum of the absolute errors of 28.12.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Mueller Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Mueller Water's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Mueller Water Stock Forecast Pattern
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Mueller Water Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting Mueller Water's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Mueller Water's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 22.24 and 25.78, respectively. We have considered Mueller Water's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Naive Prediction forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Mueller Water stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Mueller Water stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 118.9975 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | None |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 0.4536 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0196 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 28.1239 |
Predictive Modules for Mueller Water
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Mueller Water Products. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Mueller Water's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Other Forecasting Options for Mueller Water
For every potential investor in Mueller, whether a beginner or expert, Mueller Water's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Mueller Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Mueller. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Mueller Water's price trends.View Mueller Water Related Equities
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Mueller Water Products Technical and Predictive Analytics
The stock market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of Mueller Water's price movements, a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of Mueller Water's current price.| Cycle Indicators | ||
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Mueller Water Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Mueller Water stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Mueller Water shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Mueller Water stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Mueller Water Products entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
| Accumulation Distribution | 36598.52 | |||
| Daily Balance Of Power | (0.04) | |||
| Rate Of Daily Change | 1.0 | |||
| Day Median Price | 24.94 | |||
| Day Typical Price | 24.88 | |||
| Price Action Indicator | (0.18) | |||
| Period Momentum Indicator | (0.02) |
Mueller Water Risk Indicators
The analysis of Mueller Water's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Mueller Water's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting mueller stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 1.24 | |||
| Semi Deviation | 0.9963 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 1.74 | |||
| Variance | 3.04 | |||
| Downside Variance | 1.72 | |||
| Semi Variance | 0.9926 | |||
| Expected Short fall | (1.56) |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Also Currently Popular
Analyzing currently trending equities could be an opportunity to develop a better portfolio based on different market momentums that they can trigger. Utilizing the top trending stocks is also useful when creating a market-neutral strategy or pair trading technique involving a short or a long position in a currently trending equity.When determining whether Mueller Water Products offers a strong return on investment in its stock, a comprehensive analysis is essential. The process typically begins with a thorough review of Mueller Water's financial statements, including income statements, balance sheets, and cash flow statements, to assess its financial health. Key financial ratios are used to gauge profitability, efficiency, and growth potential of Mueller Water Products Stock. Outlined below are crucial reports that will aid in making a well-informed decision on Mueller Water Products Stock:Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Mueller Water to cross-verify your projections. You can also try the Premium Stories module to follow Macroaxis premium stories from verified contributors across different equity types, categories and coverage scope.
Is Industrial Machinery & Supplies & Components space expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Mueller Water. If investors know Mueller will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Mueller Water listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth (0.45) | Dividend Share 0.256 | Earnings Share 0.74 | Revenue Per Share 8.433 | Quarterly Revenue Growth 0.155 |
The market value of Mueller Water Products is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Mueller that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Mueller Water's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Mueller Water's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Mueller Water's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Mueller Water's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Mueller Water's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Mueller Water is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Mueller Water's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.