German American Bancorp Stock Probability of Future Stock Price Finishing Under 41.37
| GABC Stock | USD 40.22 0.32 0.79% |
German |
German American Target Price Odds to finish below 41.37
The tendency of German Stock price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
| Current Price | Horizon | Target Price | Odds to stay under $ 41.37 after 90 days |
| 40.22 | 90 days | 41.37 | about 39.79 |
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of German American to stay under $ 41.37 after 90 days from now is about 39.79 (This German American Bancorp probability density function shows the probability of German Stock to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) . Probability of German American Bancorp price to stay between its current price of $ 40.22 and $ 41.37 at the end of the 90-day period is about 13.99 .
Given the investment horizon of 90 days German American has a beta of 0.083. This usually indicates as returns on the market go up, German American average returns are expected to increase less than the benchmark. However, during the bear market, the loss on holding German American Bancorp will be expected to be much smaller as well. Additionally German American Bancorp has an alpha of 0.0976, implying that it can generate a 0.0976 percent excess return over Dow Jones Industrial after adjusting for the inherited market risk (beta). German American Price Density |
| Price |
Predictive Modules for German American
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as German American Bancorp. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.German American Risk Indicators
For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. German American is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the German American's value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold German American Bancorp, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of German American within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.α | Alpha over Dow Jones | 0.1 | |
β | Beta against Dow Jones | 0.08 | |
σ | Overall volatility | 2.95 | |
Ir | Information ratio | 0.04 |
German American Alerts and Suggestions
In today's market, stock alerts give investors the competitive edge they need to time the market and increase returns. Checking the ongoing alerts of German American for significant developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Suggestions and notifications for German American Bancorp can help investors quickly react to important events or material changes in technical or fundamental conditions and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.| On 20th of November 2024 German American paid $ 0.27 per share dividend to its current shareholders | |
| Latest headline from simplywall.st: Exploring December 2024s Undervalued Small Caps With Notable Insider Activity |
German American Price Density Drivers
Market volatility will typically increase when nervous long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the market lower. The future price of German Stock often depends not only on the future outlook of the current and potential German American's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. German American's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 29.6 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 115.3 M |
German American Technical Analysis
German American's future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. German Stock technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of German American Bancorp. In general, you should focus on analyzing German Stock price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.
German American Predictive Forecast Models
German American's time-series forecasting models is one of many German American's stock analysis techniques aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models are widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties, e.g., the mean and standard deviation, are not constant over time, but instead, these metrics vary over time. This non-stationary German American's historical data is usually called time series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the stock market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.