Forestar Group Stock Odds of Future Stock Price Finishing Under 22.41
| FOR Stock | USD 25.70 0.49 1.87% |
Forestar |
Forestar Target Price Odds to finish below 22.41
The tendency of Forestar Stock price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
| Current Price | Horizon | Target Price | Odds to drop to $ 22.41 or more in 90 days |
| 25.70 | 90 days | 22.41 | near 1 |
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of Forestar to drop to $ 22.41 or more in 90 days from now is near 1 (This Forestar Group probability density function shows the probability of Forestar Stock to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) . Probability of Forestar Group price to stay between $ 22.41 and its current price of $25.7 at the end of the 90-day period is about 1.69 .
Considering the 90-day investment horizon Forestar has a beta of 0.28. This usually indicates as returns on the market go up, Forestar average returns are expected to increase less than the benchmark. However, during the bear market, the loss on holding Forestar Group will be expected to be much smaller as well. Additionally Forestar Group has a negative alpha, implying that the risk taken by holding this instrument is not justified. The company is significantly underperforming the Dow Jones Industrial. Forestar Price Density |
| Price |
Predictive Modules for Forestar
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Forestar Group. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Forestar Risk Indicators
For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. Forestar is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the Forestar's value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold Forestar Group, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of Forestar within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.α | Alpha over Dow Jones | -0.32 | |
β | Beta against Dow Jones | 0.28 | |
σ | Overall volatility | 2.11 | |
Ir | Information ratio | -0.21 |
Forestar Alerts and Suggestions
In today's market, stock alerts give investors the competitive edge they need to time the market and increase returns. Checking the ongoing alerts of Forestar for significant developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Suggestions and notifications for Forestar Group can help investors quickly react to important events or material changes in technical or fundamental conditions and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.| Forestar Group generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days | |
| Forestar Group has 716.6 M in debt with debt to equity (D/E) ratio of 0.62, which is OK given its current industry classification. Forestar Group has a current ratio of 0.91, suggesting that it has not enough short term capital to pay financial commitments when the payables are due. Note however, debt could still be an excellent tool for Forestar to invest in growth at high rates of return. | |
| Forestar Group has about 616 M in cash with (158.4 M) of positive cash flow from operations. This results in cash-per-share (CPS) ratio of 2.94. | |
| Forestar Group has a poor financial position based on the latest SEC disclosures | |
| Roughly 63.0% of Forestar shares are held by company insiders | |
| Latest headline from investing.com: Forestar Group secures extended credit facility |
Forestar Price Density Drivers
Market volatility will typically increase when nervous long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the market lower. The future price of Forestar Stock often depends not only on the future outlook of the current and potential Forestar's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Forestar's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 50.8 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 481.2 M |
Forestar Technical Analysis
Forestar's future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. Forestar Stock technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of Forestar Group. In general, you should focus on analyzing Forestar Stock price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.
Forestar Predictive Forecast Models
Forestar's time-series forecasting models is one of many Forestar's stock analysis techniques aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models are widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties, e.g., the mean and standard deviation, are not constant over time, but instead, these metrics vary over time. This non-stationary Forestar's historical data is usually called time series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the stock market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.
Things to note about Forestar Group
Checking the ongoing alerts about Forestar for important developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Our stock alerts and notifications screener for Forestar Group help investors to be notified of important events, changes in technical or fundamental conditions, and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
| Forestar Group generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days | |
| Forestar Group has 716.6 M in debt with debt to equity (D/E) ratio of 0.62, which is OK given its current industry classification. Forestar Group has a current ratio of 0.91, suggesting that it has not enough short term capital to pay financial commitments when the payables are due. Note however, debt could still be an excellent tool for Forestar to invest in growth at high rates of return. | |
| Forestar Group has about 616 M in cash with (158.4 M) of positive cash flow from operations. This results in cash-per-share (CPS) ratio of 2.94. | |
| Forestar Group has a poor financial position based on the latest SEC disclosures | |
| Roughly 63.0% of Forestar shares are held by company insiders | |
| Latest headline from investing.com: Forestar Group secures extended credit facility |
Additional Tools for Forestar Stock Analysis
When running Forestar's price analysis, check to measure Forestar's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Forestar is operating at the current time. Most of Forestar's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Forestar's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Forestar's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Forestar to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.