Enova International Stock Probability of Future Stock Price Finishing Over 112.13
| ENVA Stock | USD 100.94 2.24 2.17% |
Enova |
Enova International Target Price Odds to finish over 112.13
The tendency of Enova Stock price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
| Current Price | Horizon | Target Price | Odds to move over $ 112.13 or more in 90 days |
| 100.94 | 90 days | 112.13 | about 1.91 |
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of Enova International to move over $ 112.13 or more in 90 days from now is about 1.91 (This Enova International probability density function shows the probability of Enova Stock to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) . Probability of Enova International price to stay between its current price of $ 100.94 and $ 112.13 at the end of the 90-day period is about 16.45 .
Given the investment horizon of 90 days the stock has the beta coefficient of 2.05 suggesting as the benchmark fluctuates upward, the company is expected to outperform it on average. However, if the benchmark returns are projected to be negative, Enova International will likely underperform. Additionally Enova International has an alpha of 0.2307, implying that it can generate a 0.23 percent excess return over Dow Jones Industrial after adjusting for the inherited market risk (beta). Enova International Price Density |
| Price |
Predictive Modules for Enova International
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Enova International. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Enova International's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Enova International Risk Indicators
For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. Enova International is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the Enova International's value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold Enova International, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of Enova International within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.α | Alpha over Dow Jones | 0.23 | |
β | Beta against Dow Jones | 2.05 | |
σ | Overall volatility | 9.56 | |
Ir | Information ratio | 0.15 |
Enova International Alerts and Suggestions
In today's market, stock alerts give investors the competitive edge they need to time the market and increase returns. Checking the ongoing alerts of Enova International for significant developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Suggestions and notifications for Enova International can help investors quickly react to important events or material changes in technical or fundamental conditions and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.| Over 97.0% of the company shares are held by institutions such as insurance companies | |
| Latest headline from gurufocus.com: Enova International Inc CEO David Fisher Sells 20,000 Shares |
Enova International Price Density Drivers
Market volatility will typically increase when nervous long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the market lower. The future price of Enova Stock often depends not only on the future outlook of the current and potential Enova International's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Enova International's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 31.9 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 54.4 M |
Enova International Technical Analysis
Enova International's future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. Enova Stock technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of Enova International. In general, you should focus on analyzing Enova Stock price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.
Enova International Predictive Forecast Models
Enova International's time-series forecasting models is one of many Enova International's stock analysis techniques aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models are widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties, e.g., the mean and standard deviation, are not constant over time, but instead, these metrics vary over time. This non-stationary Enova International's historical data is usually called time series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the stock market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.
Things to note about Enova International
Checking the ongoing alerts about Enova International for important developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Our stock alerts and notifications screener for Enova International help investors to be notified of important events, changes in technical or fundamental conditions, and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
| Over 97.0% of the company shares are held by institutions such as insurance companies | |
| Latest headline from gurufocus.com: Enova International Inc CEO David Fisher Sells 20,000 Shares |
Check out Enova International Backtesting, Enova International Valuation, Enova International Correlation, Enova International Hype Analysis, Enova International Volatility, Enova International History as well as Enova International Performance. For information on how to trade Enova Stock refer to our How to Trade Enova Stock guide.You can also try the Global Correlations module to find global opportunities by holding instruments from different markets.
Is Consumer Finance space expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Enova International. If investors know Enova will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Enova International listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth 0.217 | Earnings Share 6.28 | Revenue Per Share 42.107 | Quarterly Revenue Growth 0.194 | Return On Assets 0.0398 |
The market value of Enova International is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Enova that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Enova International's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Enova International's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Enova International's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Enova International's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Enova International's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Enova International is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Enova International's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.