Estee Lauder Companies Stock Probability of Future Stock Price Finishing Over 73.96
| EL Stock | USD 73.96 0.78 1.07% |
Estee |
Estee Lauder Target Price Odds to finish over 73.96
The tendency of Estee Stock price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
| Current Price | Horizon | Target Price | Odds to move above the current price in 90 days |
| 73.96 | 90 days | 73.96 | about 79.48 |
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of Estee Lauder to move above the current price in 90 days from now is about 79.48 (This Estee Lauder Companies probability density function shows the probability of Estee Stock to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) .
Allowing for the 90-day total investment horizon Estee Lauder has a beta of 0.83 suggesting as returns on the market go up, Estee Lauder average returns are expected to increase less than the benchmark. However, during the bear market, the loss on holding Estee Lauder Companies will be expected to be much smaller as well. Additionally Estee Lauder Companies has a negative alpha, implying that the risk taken by holding this instrument is not justified. The company is significantly underperforming the Dow Jones Industrial. Estee Lauder Price Density |
| Price |
Predictive Modules for Estee Lauder
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Estee Lauder Companies. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Estee Lauder Risk Indicators
For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. Estee Lauder is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the Estee Lauder's value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold Estee Lauder Companies, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of Estee Lauder within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.α | Alpha over Dow Jones | -0.42 | |
β | Beta against Dow Jones | 0.83 | |
σ | Overall volatility | 11.98 | |
Ir | Information ratio | -0.13 |
Estee Lauder Alerts and Suggestions
In today's market, stock alerts give investors the competitive edge they need to time the market and increase returns. Checking the ongoing alerts of Estee Lauder for significant developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Suggestions and notifications for Estee Lauder Companies can help investors quickly react to important events or material changes in technical or fundamental conditions and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.| Estee Lauder generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days | |
| Estee Lauder has high historical volatility and very poor performance | |
| Over 90.0% of the company shares are held by institutions such as insurance companies | |
| Latest headline from finance.yahoo.com: Insider Trading |
Estee Lauder Price Density Drivers
Market volatility will typically increase when nervous long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the market lower. The future price of Estee Stock often depends not only on the future outlook of the current and potential Estee Lauder's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Estee Lauder's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 360.8 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 3.4 B |
Estee Lauder Technical Analysis
Estee Lauder's future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. Estee Stock technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of Estee Lauder Companies. In general, you should focus on analyzing Estee Stock price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.
Estee Lauder Predictive Forecast Models
Estee Lauder's time-series forecasting models is one of many Estee Lauder's stock analysis techniques aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models are widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties, e.g., the mean and standard deviation, are not constant over time, but instead, these metrics vary over time. This non-stationary Estee Lauder's historical data is usually called time series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the stock market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.
Things to note about Estee Lauder Companies
Checking the ongoing alerts about Estee Lauder for important developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Our stock alerts and notifications screener for Estee Lauder Companies help investors to be notified of important events, changes in technical or fundamental conditions, and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
| Estee Lauder generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days | |
| Estee Lauder has high historical volatility and very poor performance | |
| Over 90.0% of the company shares are held by institutions such as insurance companies | |
| Latest headline from finance.yahoo.com: Insider Trading |
Check out Estee Lauder Backtesting, Estee Lauder Valuation, Estee Lauder Correlation, Estee Lauder Hype Analysis, Estee Lauder Volatility, Estee Lauder History as well as Estee Lauder Performance. You can also try the Competition Analyzer module to analyze and compare many basic indicators for a group of related or unrelated entities.
Is Personal Care Products space expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Estee Lauder. If investors know Estee will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Estee Lauder listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth 1.116 | Dividend Share 2.64 | Earnings Share 0.56 | Revenue Per Share 43.003 | Quarterly Revenue Growth (0.04) |
The market value of Estee Lauder Companies is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Estee that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Estee Lauder's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Estee Lauder's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Estee Lauder's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Estee Lauder's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Estee Lauder's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Estee Lauder is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Estee Lauder's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.