Aspen Technology Stock Probability of Future Stock Price Finishing Under 172.51
| AZPN Stock | USD 250.72 1.66 0.67% |
Aspen |
Aspen Technology Target Price Odds to finish below 172.51
The tendency of Aspen Stock price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
| Current Price | Horizon | Target Price | Odds to drop to $ 172.51 or more in 90 days |
| 250.72 | 90 days | 172.51 | near 1 |
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of Aspen Technology to drop to $ 172.51 or more in 90 days from now is near 1 (This Aspen Technology probability density function shows the probability of Aspen Stock to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) . Probability of Aspen Technology price to stay between $ 172.51 and its current price of $250.72 at the end of the 90-day period is about 88.95 .
Given the investment horizon of 90 days Aspen Technology has a beta of 0.66. This suggests as returns on the market go up, Aspen Technology average returns are expected to increase less than the benchmark. However, during the bear market, the loss on holding Aspen Technology will be expected to be much smaller as well. Additionally Aspen Technology has an alpha of 0.0519, implying that it can generate a 0.0519 percent excess return over Dow Jones Industrial after adjusting for the inherited market risk (beta). Aspen Technology Price Density |
| Price |
Predictive Modules for Aspen Technology
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Aspen Technology. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Aspen Technology Risk Indicators
For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. Aspen Technology is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the Aspen Technology's value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold Aspen Technology, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of Aspen Technology within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.α | Alpha over Dow Jones | 0.05 | |
β | Beta against Dow Jones | 0.66 | |
σ | Overall volatility | 6.79 | |
Ir | Information ratio | 0.04 |
Aspen Technology Alerts and Suggestions
In today's market, stock alerts give investors the competitive edge they need to time the market and increase returns. Checking the ongoing alerts of Aspen Technology for significant developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Suggestions and notifications for Aspen Technology can help investors quickly react to important events or material changes in technical or fundamental conditions and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.| The company reported the previous year's revenue of 1.13 B. Net Loss for the year was (9.77 M) with profit before overhead, payroll, taxes, and interest of 331.87 M. | |
| Aspen Technology has a frail financial position based on the latest SEC disclosures | |
| About 58.0% of the company shares are held by company insiders | |
| Latest headline from finance.yahoo.com: Autodesk announces appointment of two new independent directors |
Aspen Technology Price Density Drivers
Market volatility will typically increase when nervous long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the market lower. The future price of Aspen Stock often depends not only on the future outlook of the current and potential Aspen Technology's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Aspen Technology's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 63.7 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 237 M |
Aspen Technology Technical Analysis
Aspen Technology's future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. Aspen Stock technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of Aspen Technology. In general, you should focus on analyzing Aspen Stock price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.
Aspen Technology Predictive Forecast Models
Aspen Technology's time-series forecasting models is one of many Aspen Technology's stock analysis techniques aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models are widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties, e.g., the mean and standard deviation, are not constant over time, but instead, these metrics vary over time. This non-stationary Aspen Technology's historical data is usually called time series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the stock market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.
Things to note about Aspen Technology
Checking the ongoing alerts about Aspen Technology for important developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Our stock alerts and notifications screener for Aspen Technology help investors to be notified of important events, changes in technical or fundamental conditions, and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
| The company reported the previous year's revenue of 1.13 B. Net Loss for the year was (9.77 M) with profit before overhead, payroll, taxes, and interest of 331.87 M. | |
| Aspen Technology has a frail financial position based on the latest SEC disclosures | |
| About 58.0% of the company shares are held by company insiders | |
| Latest headline from finance.yahoo.com: Autodesk announces appointment of two new independent directors |
Check out Aspen Technology Backtesting, Aspen Technology Valuation, Aspen Technology Correlation, Aspen Technology Hype Analysis, Aspen Technology Volatility, Aspen Technology History as well as Aspen Technology Performance. To learn how to invest in Aspen Stock, please use our How to Invest in Aspen Technology guide.You can also try the Equity Forecasting module to use basic forecasting models to generate price predictions and determine price momentum.
Is Application Software space expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Aspen Technology. If investors know Aspen will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Aspen Technology listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth 0.682 | Earnings Share (0.58) | Revenue Per Share 17.245 | Quarterly Revenue Growth (0.13) | Return On Assets (0.01) |
The market value of Aspen Technology is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Aspen that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Aspen Technology's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Aspen Technology's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Aspen Technology's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Aspen Technology's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Aspen Technology's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Aspen Technology is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Aspen Technology's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.