Aspen Technology Stock Buy Hold or Sell Recommendation
| AZPN Stock | USD 250.00 0.40 0.16% |
Given the investment horizon of 90 days and your below-average risk tolerance, our recommendation regarding Aspen Technology is 'Cautious Hold'. The recommendation algorithm takes into account all of Aspen Technology's available fundamental, technical, and predictive indicators you will find on this site.
Check out Aspen Technology Analyst Recommendation to compare Macroaxis Buy or Sell Recommendation with the current analyst consensus. To check ratings for multiple equity instruments, please use the Instant Ratings tool. To learn how to invest in Aspen Stock, please use our How to Invest in Aspen Technology guide. In addition, we conduct extensive research on individual companies such as Aspen and provide practical buy, sell, or hold advice based on investors' investing horizon and their risk tolerance towards Aspen Technology. Also, note that the market value of any company could be closely tied with the direction of predictive economic indicators such as signals in american community survey.
Aspen |
Execute Aspen Technology Buy or Sell Advice
The Aspen recommendation should be used to complement the buy-or-sell advice compiled from the current analysts' consensus on Aspen Technology. Macroaxis does not own or have any residual interests in Aspen Technology or other equities on which the buy-or-sell advice is provided. Please provide your input below to execute Aspen Technology's advice using the current market data and latest reported fundamentals.
Time Horizon
Risk Tolerance
 |  |
Cautious Hold
Market Performance | Good | Details | |
Volatility | Very steady | Details | |
Hype Condition | Low key | Details | |
Current Valuation | Overvalued | Details | |
Odds Of Distress | Low | Details | |
Economic Sensitivity | Moves indifferently to market moves | Details | |
Investor Sentiment | Impartial | Details | |
Analyst Consensus | Buy | Details | |
Financial Strenth (F Score) | Frail | Details | |
Financial Leverage | Not Rated | Details | |
Reporting Quality (M-Score) | Unlikely Manipulator | Details |
Aspen Technology Trading Alerts and Improvement Suggestions
| The company reported the previous year's revenue of 1.13 B. Net Loss for the year was (9.77 M) with profit before overhead, payroll, taxes, and interest of 331.87 M. | |
| Aspen Technology has a frail financial position based on the latest SEC disclosures | |
| About 58.0% of the company shares are held by company insiders | |
| Latest headline from barrons.com: Best of Barrons Advisor QA From AIs Promise to Building a Successful Career |
Aspen Technology Returns Distribution Density
The distribution of Aspen Technology's historical returns is an attempt to chart the uncertainty of Aspen Technology's future price movements. The chart of the probability distribution of Aspen Technology daily returns describes the distribution of returns around its average expected value. We use Aspen Technology price's Value At Risk and its Upside Potential as a relative measure of the distribution. The graph of the distribution of Aspen Technology returns is essential to provide solid investment advice for Aspen Technology.
| Mean Return | 0.24 | Value At Risk | -2.08 | Potential Upside | 2.39 | Standard Deviation | 1.40 |
Return Density |
| Distribution |
Investment risk management requires an estimate of the probability of extreme price changes. Therefore, the correct representation of the distribution of Aspen Technology historical returns presented in an easy-to-digest graphical form helps investors and money managers understand the risk-reward trade-off of different investement strategies.
Aspen Stock Institutional Investors
Have you ever been surprised when a price of an equity instrument, such as Aspen Technology, soars without any apparent reason. This usually happens because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Aspen Technology back and forth among themselves. Companies that invest excess capital in these types of assets may also be included in this term and can influence corporate governance by exercising voting rights in their investments.
| Shares | Independent Franchise Partners Llp | 2024-09-30 | 555.6 K | Wells Fargo & Co | 2024-06-30 | 552.5 K | Lazard Asset Management Llc | 2024-06-30 | 527 K | Wellington Management Company Llp | 2024-06-30 | 526.7 K | Bamco Inc | 2024-09-30 | 468 K | Clearbridge Advisors, Llc | 2024-09-30 | 456.1 K | Fiera Capital Corporation | 2024-06-30 | 340.2 K | Valley Forge Capital Management, Lp | 2024-09-30 | 295.5 K | Raymond James & Associates | 2024-09-30 | 282 K | Kayne Anderson Rudnick Investment Management Llc | 2024-06-30 | 4.1 M | Blackrock Inc | 2024-06-30 | 3.9 M |
Aspen Technology Cash Flow Accounts
| 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 (projected) | ||
| Change In Cash | 215.9M | 92.1M | 424.0M | (208.5M) | 7.3M | 6.9M | |
| Free Cash Flow | 241.8M | 273.8M | 224.2M | 292.3M | 335.3M | 352.0M | |
| Depreciation | 9.6M | 10.3M | 158.0M | 491.4M | 493.0M | 517.7M | |
| Other Non Cash Items | 13.6M | 23.0M | 273.0M | 51.7M | 32.3M | 22.3M | |
| Capital Expenditures | 1.4M | 2.4M | 6.2M | 6.9M | 4.6M | 5.8M | |
| Net Income | 225.7M | 319.8M | 41.9M | (107.8M) | (9.8M) | (9.3M) | |
| End Period Cash Flow | 287.8M | 379.9M | 449.7M | 241.2M | 248.5M | 149.9M | |
| Change To Inventory | (61.7M) | (12.1M) | (136.8M) | (27.7M) | (24.9M) | (26.2M) | |
| Change Receivables | 4.3M | (6.6M) | (12.9M) | (2.1M) | (1.9M) | (1.8M) | |
| Net Borrowings | 50M | 207.6M | (135.2M) | (8.0M) | (7.2M) | (6.8M) | |
| Change To Netincome | 557K | 64.6M | 59.9M | (75.5M) | (68.0M) | (64.6M) | |
| Investments | (324K) | (1.1M) | (32K) | (107.3M) | (25.7M) | (24.4M) |
Aspen Technology Greeks
Most traded equities are subject to two types of risk - systematic (i.e., market) and unsystematic (i.e., nonmarket or company-specific) risk. Unsystematic risk is the risk that events specific to Aspen Technology or Software sector will adversely affect the stock's price. This type of risk can be diversified away by owning several different stocks in different industries whose stock prices have shown a small correlation to each other. On the other hand, systematic risk is the risk that Aspen Technology's price will be affected by overall stock market movements and cannot be diversified away. So, no matter how many positions you have, you cannot eliminate market risk. However, you can measure a Aspen stock's historical response to market movements and buy it if you are comfortable with its volatility direction. Beta and standard deviation are two commonly used measures to help you make the right decision.
α | Alpha over Dow Jones | 0.25 | |
β | Beta against Dow Jones | -0.11 | |
σ | Overall volatility | 1.16 | |
Ir | Information ratio | 0.08 |
Aspen Technology Volatility Alert
Aspen Technology has relatively low volatility with skewness of 0.07 and kurtosis of 1.55. Understanding different market volatility trends often help investors to time the market. Properly using volatility indicators enable traders to measure Aspen Technology's stock risk against market volatility during both bullish and bearish trends. The higher level of volatility that comes with bear markets can directly impact Aspen Technology's stock price while adding stress to investors as they watch their shares' value plummet. This usually forces investors to rebalance their portfolios by buying different financial instruments as prices fall.Aspen Technology Fundamentals Vs Peers
Comparing Aspen Technology's fundamentals to the average values of its peers is one of the most widely used and accepted methods of equity analyses. It helps to analyze Aspen Technology's direct or indirect competition across all of the common fundamentals between Aspen Technology and the related equities. This way, we can detect undervalued stocks with similar characteristics as Aspen Technology or determine the stocks which would be an excellent addition to an existing portfolio. Peer analysis of Aspen Technology's fundamental indicators could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Aspen Technology by comparing valuation metrics with those of similar companies.
| Better Than Average | Worse Than Average | Compare Aspen Technology to competition |
| Fundamentals | Aspen Technology | Peer Average |
| Return On Equity | -0.0028 | -0.31 |
| Return On Asset | -0.0051 | -0.14 |
| Profit Margin | (0.03) % | (1.27) % |
| Operating Margin | (0.41) % | (5.51) % |
| Current Valuation | 15.69 B | 16.62 B |
| Shares Outstanding | 63.25 M | 571.82 M |
| Shares Owned By Insiders | 57.60 % | 10.09 % |
| Shares Owned By Institutions | 47.36 % | 39.21 % |
| Number Of Shares Shorted | 1.18 M | 4.71 M |
| Price To Earning | 62.82 X | 28.72 X |
| Price To Book | 1.24 X | 9.51 X |
| Price To Sales | 14.45 X | 11.42 X |
| Revenue | 1.13 B | 9.43 B |
| Gross Profit | 331.87 M | 27.38 B |
| EBITDA | 403.47 M | 3.9 B |
| Net Income | (9.77 M) | 570.98 M |
| Cash And Equivalents | 382.46 M | 2.7 B |
| Cash Per Share | 5.93 X | 5.01 X |
| Total Debt | 98 M | 5.32 B |
| Debt To Equity | 0.03 % | 48.70 % |
| Current Ratio | 3.48 X | 2.16 X |
| Book Value Per Share | 201.64 X | 1.93 K |
| Cash Flow From Operations | 339.89 M | 971.22 M |
| Short Ratio | 3.00 X | 4.00 X |
| Earnings Per Share | (0.58) X | 3.12 X |
| Price To Earnings To Growth | 4.48 X | 4.89 X |
| Target Price | 243.15 | |
| Number Of Employees | 1.19 K | 18.84 K |
| Beta | 0.76 | -0.15 |
| Market Capitalization | 15.81 B | 19.03 B |
| Total Asset | 14.07 B | 29.47 B |
| Retained Earnings | (51.16 M) | 9.33 B |
| Working Capital | 538.66 M | 1.48 B |
Note: Disposition of 185 shares by Stagno Christopher of Aspen Technology at 237.25 subject to Rule 16b-3 [view details]
Aspen Technology Market Momentum
Traders often use several daily momentume indicators to supplement a more traditional technical analysis when analyzing securities such as Aspen . With many different options, investors must choose the best indicators for them and familiarize themselves with how they work. We suggest combining traditional momentum indicators with more near-term forms of technical analysis such as Accumulation Distribution or Daily Balance Of Power. With their quantitative nature, daily value technical indicators can also be incorporated into your automated trading systems.
| Accumulation Distribution | 925.58 | |||
| Daily Balance Of Power | (0.23) | |||
| Rate Of Daily Change | 1.0 | |||
| Day Median Price | 249.91 | |||
| Day Typical Price | 249.94 | |||
| Price Action Indicator | (0.11) | |||
| Period Momentum Indicator | (0.40) | |||
| Relative Strength Index | 63.88 |
About Aspen Technology Buy or Sell Advice
When is the right time to buy or sell Aspen Technology? Buying financial instruments such as Aspen Stock isn't very hard. However, what challenging for most investors is doing it at the right time to beat the market. Proper market timing is something most people cannot do without sophisticated tools, which help to isolate the right opportunities. Macroaxis provides hands-on modules to deliver winning trades and diversify your portfolios on a daily basis. Most of our advising modules are very easy to use and apply.
Please read more on our stock advisor page.
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Check out Aspen Technology Analyst Recommendation to compare Macroaxis Buy or Sell Recommendation with the current analyst consensus. To check ratings for multiple equity instruments, please use the Instant Ratings tool. To learn how to invest in Aspen Stock, please use our How to Invest in Aspen Technology guide.You can also try the ETFs module to find actively traded Exchange Traded Funds (ETF) from around the world.
Is Application Software space expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Aspen Technology. If investors know Aspen will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Aspen Technology listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth 0.682 | Earnings Share (0.58) | Revenue Per Share 17.245 | Quarterly Revenue Growth (0.13) | Return On Assets (0.01) |
The market value of Aspen Technology is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Aspen that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Aspen Technology's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Aspen Technology's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Aspen Technology's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Aspen Technology's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Aspen Technology's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Aspen Technology is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Aspen Technology's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.