Aspen Technology Stock Forecast - Double Exponential Smoothing

Double exponential smoothing - also known as Holt exponential smoothing is a refinement of the popular simple exponential smoothing model with an additional trending component. Double exponential smoothing model for Aspen Technology works best with periods where there are trends or seasonality.

Aspen Technology Double Exponential Smoothing Price Forecast For the 27th of March

Given 90 days horizon, the Double Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Aspen Technology on the next trading day is expected to be 264.24 with a mean absolute deviation of 1.57, mean absolute percentage error of 5.95, and the sum of the absolute errors of 92.75.

Aspen Technology Stock Forecast Pattern

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Model Predictive Factors

The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Double Exponential Smoothing forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Aspen Technology stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Aspen Technology stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality. When Aspen Technology prices exhibit either an increasing or decreasing trend over time, simple exponential smoothing forecasts tend to lag behind observations. Double exponential smoothing is designed to address this type of data series by taking into account any Aspen Technology trend in the prices. So in double exponential smoothing past observations are given exponentially smaller weights as the observations get older. In other words, recent Aspen Technology observations are given relatively more weight in forecasting than the older observations.

Predictive Modules for Aspen Technology

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Aspen Technology. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.

Hype Prediction Low Estimated High 263.46 264.37 265.28 Details

Intrinsic Valuation Low Real High 222.17 223.08 290.76 Details

Bollinger Band Projection (param) Low Middle High 263.48 264.48 265.48 Details

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Risk & Return

Correlation

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Pair Trading with Aspen Technology

One of the main advantages of trading using pair correlations is that every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if Aspen Technology position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Pair trading also minimizes risk from directional movements in the market. For example, if an entire industry or sector drops because of unexpected headlines, the short position in Aspen Technology will appreciate offsetting losses from the drop in the long position's value.

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