Auburn National Bancorporation Stock Probability of Future Stock Price Finishing Under 21.74
| AUBN Stock | USD 21.48 0.20 0.94% |
Auburn |
Auburn National Target Price Odds to finish below 21.74
The tendency of Auburn Stock price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
| Current Price | Horizon | Target Price | Odds to stay under $ 21.74 after 90 days |
| 21.48 | 90 days | 21.74 | about 29.47 |
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of Auburn National to stay under $ 21.74 after 90 days from now is about 29.47 (This Auburn National Bancorporation probability density function shows the probability of Auburn Stock to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) . Probability of Auburn National Banc price to stay between its current price of $ 21.48 and $ 21.74 at the end of the 90-day period is about 7.95 .
Given the investment horizon of 90 days Auburn National has a beta of 0.37. This suggests as returns on the market go up, Auburn National average returns are expected to increase less than the benchmark. However, during the bear market, the loss on holding Auburn National Bancorporation will be expected to be much smaller as well. Additionally Auburn National Bancorporation has a negative alpha, implying that the risk taken by holding this instrument is not justified. The company is significantly underperforming the Dow Jones Industrial. Auburn National Price Density |
| Price |
Predictive Modules for Auburn National
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Auburn National Banc. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Auburn National Risk Indicators
For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. Auburn National is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the Auburn National's value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold Auburn National Bancorporation, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of Auburn National within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.α | Alpha over Dow Jones | -0.1 | |
β | Beta against Dow Jones | 0.37 | |
σ | Overall volatility | 1.05 | |
Ir | Information ratio | -0.05 |
Auburn National Alerts and Suggestions
In today's market, stock alerts give investors the competitive edge they need to time the market and increase returns. Checking the ongoing alerts of Auburn National for significant developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Suggestions and notifications for Auburn National Banc can help investors quickly react to important events or material changes in technical or fundamental conditions and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.| Auburn National Banc generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days | |
| Auburn National Banc has a strong financial position based on the latest SEC filings | |
| About 35.0% of the company shares are held by company insiders | |
| Latest headline from news.google.com: Auburn National Bancorporation, Inc. to Issue Quarterly Dividend of 0.27 - MarketBeat |
Auburn National Price Density Drivers
Market volatility will typically increase when nervous long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the market lower. The future price of Auburn Stock often depends not only on the future outlook of the current and potential Auburn National's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Auburn National's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 3.5 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 310.9 M |
Auburn National Technical Analysis
Auburn National's future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. Auburn Stock technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of Auburn National Bancorporation. In general, you should focus on analyzing Auburn Stock price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.
Auburn National Predictive Forecast Models
Auburn National's time-series forecasting models is one of many Auburn National's stock analysis techniques aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models are widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties, e.g., the mean and standard deviation, are not constant over time, but instead, these metrics vary over time. This non-stationary Auburn National's historical data is usually called time series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the stock market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.
Things to note about Auburn National Banc
Checking the ongoing alerts about Auburn National for important developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Our stock alerts and notifications screener for Auburn National Banc help investors to be notified of important events, changes in technical or fundamental conditions, and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
| Auburn National Banc generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days | |
| Auburn National Banc has a strong financial position based on the latest SEC filings | |
| About 35.0% of the company shares are held by company insiders | |
| Latest headline from news.google.com: Auburn National Bancorporation, Inc. to Issue Quarterly Dividend of 0.27 - MarketBeat |
Check out Auburn National Backtesting, Auburn National Valuation, Auburn National Correlation, Auburn National Hype Analysis, Auburn National Volatility, Auburn National History as well as Auburn National Performance. You can also try the Competition Analyzer module to analyze and compare many basic indicators for a group of related or unrelated entities.
Is Regional Banks space expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Auburn National. If investors know Auburn will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Auburn National listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth 0.165 | Dividend Share 1.08 | Earnings Share 0.25 | Revenue Per Share | Quarterly Revenue Growth 0.104 |
The market value of Auburn National Banc is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Auburn that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Auburn National's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Auburn National's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Auburn National's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Auburn National's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Auburn National's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Auburn National is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Auburn National's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.