Midland States Stock Forecast - Double Exponential Smoothing
| MSBI Stock | USD 26.80 0.05 0.19% |
The Double Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Midland States Bancorp on the next trading day is expected to be 26.95 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.37 and the sum of the absolute errors of 22.00. Midland Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon. We recommend always using this module together with an analysis of Midland States' historical fundamentals, such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns.
Midland |
Midland States Double Exponential Smoothing Price Forecast For the 13th of December 2024
Given 90 days horizon, the Double Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Midland States Bancorp on the next trading day is expected to be 26.95 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.37, mean absolute percentage error of 0.30, and the sum of the absolute errors of 22.00.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Midland Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Midland States' next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Midland States Stock Forecast Pattern
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Midland States Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting Midland States' Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Midland States' downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 24.73 and 29.17, respectively. We have considered Midland States' daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Double Exponential Smoothing forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Midland States stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Midland States stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | Huge |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | 0.0581 |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 0.3667 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0149 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 22.0024 |
Predictive Modules for Midland States
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Midland States Bancorp. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Other Forecasting Options for Midland States
For every potential investor in Midland, whether a beginner or expert, Midland States' price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Midland Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Midland. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Midland States' price trends.Midland States Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Midland States stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Midland States could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Midland States by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Midland States Bancorp Technical and Predictive Analytics
The stock market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of Midland States' price movements, a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of Midland States' current price.| Cycle Indicators | ||
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| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
Midland States Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Midland States stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Midland States shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Midland States stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Midland States Bancorp entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
| Accumulation Distribution | 1732.09 | |||
| Daily Balance Of Power | (0.12) | |||
| Rate Of Daily Change | 1.0 | |||
| Day Median Price | 26.99 | |||
| Day Typical Price | 26.93 | |||
| Price Action Indicator | (0.21) | |||
| Period Momentum Indicator | (0.05) | |||
| Relative Strength Index | 65.53 |
Midland States Risk Indicators
The analysis of Midland States' basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Midland States' investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting midland stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 1.39 | |||
| Semi Deviation | 1.29 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 2.18 | |||
| Variance | 4.77 | |||
| Downside Variance | 2.36 | |||
| Semi Variance | 1.65 | |||
| Expected Short fall | (1.78) |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Currently Active Assets on Macroaxis
When determining whether Midland States Bancorp is a good investment, qualitative aspects like company management, corporate governance, and ethical practices play a significant role. A comparison with peer companies also provides context and helps to understand if Midland Stock is undervalued or overvalued. This multi-faceted approach, blending both quantitative and qualitative analysis, forms a solid foundation for making an informed investment decision about Midland States Bancorp Stock. Highlighted below are key reports to facilitate an investment decision about Midland States Bancorp Stock:Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Midland States to cross-verify your projections. You can also try the Portfolio Manager module to state of the art Portfolio Manager to monitor and improve performance of your invested capital.
Is Regional Banks space expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Midland States. If investors know Midland will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Midland States listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth 0.802 | Dividend Share 1.23 | Earnings Share 2.3 | Revenue Per Share 11.952 | Quarterly Revenue Growth 0.066 |
The market value of Midland States Bancorp is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Midland that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Midland States' value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Midland States' true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Midland States' market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Midland States' underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Midland States' value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Midland States is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Midland States' price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.