Molina Healthcare Stock Forecast - Triple Exponential Smoothing

MOH Stock  USD 301.12  8.14  2.78%   
The Triple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Molina Healthcare on the next trading day is expected to be 303.62 with a mean absolute deviation of 6.82 and the sum of the absolute errors of 402.41. Molina Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon. We recommend always using this module together with an analysis of Molina Healthcare's historical fundamentals, such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns.
  
As of now, Molina Healthcare's Asset Turnover is increasing as compared to previous years. . The Molina Healthcare's current Net Income Applicable To Common Shares is estimated to increase to about 956.3 M, while Common Stock Shares Outstanding is projected to decrease to under 51.9 M.

Open Interest Against 2025-04-17 Molina Option Contracts

Although open interest is a measure utilized in the options markets, it could be used to forecast Molina Healthcare's spot prices because the number of available contracts in the market changes daily, and new contracts can be created or liquidated at will. Since open interest in Molina Healthcare's options reflects these daily shifts, investors could use the patterns of these changes to develop long and short-term trading strategies for Molina Healthcare stock based on available contracts left at the end of a trading day.
Please note that to derive more accurate forecasting about market movement from the current Molina Healthcare's open interest, investors have to compare it to Molina Healthcare's spot prices. As Ford's stock price increases, high open interest indicates that money is entering the market, and the market is strongly bullish. Conversely, if the price of Molina Healthcare is decreasing and there is high open interest, that is a sign that the bearish trend will continue, and investors may react by taking short positions in Molina. So, decreasing or low open interest during a bull market indicates that investors are becoming uncertain of the depth of the bullish trend, and a reversal in sentiment will likely follow.
Triple exponential smoothing for Molina Healthcare - also known as the Winters method - is a refinement of the popular double exponential smoothing model with the addition of periodicity (seasonality) component. Simple exponential smoothing technique works best with data where there are no trend or seasonality components to the data. When Molina Healthcare prices exhibit either an increasing or decreasing trend over time, simple exponential smoothing forecasts tend to lag behind observations. Double exponential smoothing is designed to address this type of data series by taking into account any trend in Molina Healthcare price movement. However, neither of these exponential smoothing models address any seasonality of Molina Healthcare.

Molina Healthcare Triple Exponential Smoothing Price Forecast For the 3rd of March

Given 90 days horizon, the Triple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Molina Healthcare on the next trading day is expected to be 303.62 with a mean absolute deviation of 6.82, mean absolute percentage error of 85.53, and the sum of the absolute errors of 402.41.
Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Molina Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Molina Healthcare's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).

Molina Healthcare Stock Forecast Pattern

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Molina Healthcare Forecasted Value

In the context of forecasting Molina Healthcare's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Molina Healthcare's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 300.79 and 306.46, respectively. We have considered Molina Healthcare's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Market Value
301.12
300.79
Downside
303.62
Expected Value
306.46
Upside

Model Predictive Factors

The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Triple Exponential Smoothing forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Molina Healthcare stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Molina Healthcare stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.
AICAkaike Information CriteriaHuge
BiasArithmetic mean of the errors 0.7506
MADMean absolute deviation6.8206
MAPEMean absolute percentage error0.0232
SAESum of the absolute errors402.415
As with simple exponential smoothing, in triple exponential smoothing models past Molina Healthcare observations are given exponentially smaller weights as the observations get older. In other words, recent observations are given relatively more weight in forecasting than the older Molina Healthcare observations.

Predictive Modules for Molina Healthcare

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Molina Healthcare. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimatedHigh
298.30301.14303.98
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowRealHigh
271.01318.06320.90
Details
Bollinger
Band Projection (param)
LowMiddleHigh
257.49289.99322.48
Details
14 Analysts
Consensus
LowTargetHigh
326.20358.46397.89
Details

Other Forecasting Options for Molina Healthcare

For every potential investor in Molina, whether a beginner or expert, Molina Healthcare's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Molina Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Molina. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Molina Healthcare's price trends.

Molina Healthcare Related Equities

One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Molina Healthcare stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Molina Healthcare could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Molina Healthcare by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
 Risk & Return  Correlation

Molina Healthcare Technical and Predictive Analytics

The stock market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of Molina Healthcare's price movements, a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of Molina Healthcare's current price.

Molina Healthcare Market Strength Events

Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Molina Healthcare stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Molina Healthcare shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Molina Healthcare stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Molina Healthcare entry and exit signals to maximize returns.

Molina Healthcare Risk Indicators

The analysis of Molina Healthcare's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Molina Healthcare's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting molina stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.

Currently Active Assets on Macroaxis

When determining whether Molina Healthcare offers a strong return on investment in its stock, a comprehensive analysis is essential. The process typically begins with a thorough review of Molina Healthcare's financial statements, including income statements, balance sheets, and cash flow statements, to assess its financial health. Key financial ratios are used to gauge profitability, efficiency, and growth potential of Molina Healthcare Stock. Outlined below are crucial reports that will aid in making a well-informed decision on Molina Healthcare Stock:
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Molina Healthcare to cross-verify your projections.
For more detail on how to invest in Molina Stock please use our How to Invest in Molina Healthcare guide.
You can also try the Piotroski F Score module to get Piotroski F Score based on the binary analysis strategy of nine different fundamentals.
Is Health Care Providers & Services space expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Molina Healthcare. If investors know Molina will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Molina Healthcare listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth
0.203
Earnings Share
20.42
Revenue Per Share
682.3
Quarterly Revenue Growth
0.191
Return On Assets
0.07
The market value of Molina Healthcare is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Molina that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Molina Healthcare's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Molina Healthcare's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Molina Healthcare's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Molina Healthcare's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Molina Healthcare's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Molina Healthcare is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Molina Healthcare's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.