Molina Healthcare Stock Forecast - Simple Exponential Smoothing
| MOH Stock | USD 300.31 2.10 0.70% |
The Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Molina Healthcare on the next trading day is expected to be 300.28 with a mean absolute deviation of 6.64 and the sum of the absolute errors of 404.82. Molina Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon. We recommend always using this module together with an analysis of Molina Healthcare's historical fundamentals, such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns.
Molina |
Molina Healthcare Simple Exponential Smoothing Price Forecast For the 13th of December 2024
Given 90 days horizon, the Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Molina Healthcare on the next trading day is expected to be 300.28 with a mean absolute deviation of 6.64, mean absolute percentage error of 104.15, and the sum of the absolute errors of 404.82.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Molina Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Molina Healthcare's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Molina Healthcare Stock Forecast Pattern
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Molina Healthcare Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting Molina Healthcare's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Molina Healthcare's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 296.87 and 303.69, respectively. We have considered Molina Healthcare's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Molina Healthcare stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Molina Healthcare stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 122.7563 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | 1.0444 |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 6.6364 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0213 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 404.8212 |
Predictive Modules for Molina Healthcare
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Molina Healthcare. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Other Forecasting Options for Molina Healthcare
For every potential investor in Molina, whether a beginner or expert, Molina Healthcare's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Molina Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Molina. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Molina Healthcare's price trends.Molina Healthcare Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Molina Healthcare stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Molina Healthcare could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Molina Healthcare by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Molina Healthcare Technical and Predictive Analytics
The stock market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of Molina Healthcare's price movements, a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of Molina Healthcare's current price.| Cycle Indicators | ||
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Molina Healthcare Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Molina Healthcare stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Molina Healthcare shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Molina Healthcare stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Molina Healthcare entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
| Accumulation Distribution | 25788.06 | |||
| Daily Balance Of Power | 0.2229 | |||
| Rate Of Daily Change | 1.01 | |||
| Day Median Price | 297.16 | |||
| Day Typical Price | 298.21 | |||
| Price Action Indicator | 4.2 | |||
| Period Momentum Indicator | 2.1 |
Molina Healthcare Risk Indicators
The analysis of Molina Healthcare's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Molina Healthcare's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting molina stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 2.06 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 3.39 | |||
| Variance | 11.46 |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Currently Active Assets on Macroaxis
When determining whether Molina Healthcare offers a strong return on investment in its stock, a comprehensive analysis is essential. The process typically begins with a thorough review of Molina Healthcare's financial statements, including income statements, balance sheets, and cash flow statements, to assess its financial health. Key financial ratios are used to gauge profitability, efficiency, and growth potential of Molina Healthcare Stock. Outlined below are crucial reports that will aid in making a well-informed decision on Molina Healthcare Stock:Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Molina Healthcare to cross-verify your projections. For more detail on how to invest in Molina Stock please use our How to Invest in Molina Healthcare guide.You can also try the Odds Of Bankruptcy module to get analysis of equity chance of financial distress in the next 2 years.
Is Health Care Providers & Services space expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Molina Healthcare. If investors know Molina will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Molina Healthcare listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth 0.342 | Earnings Share 19.67 | Revenue Per Share 649.831 | Quarterly Revenue Growth 0.174 | Return On Assets 0.069 |
The market value of Molina Healthcare is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Molina that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Molina Healthcare's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Molina Healthcare's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Molina Healthcare's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Molina Healthcare's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Molina Healthcare's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Molina Healthcare is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Molina Healthcare's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.