Montrose Environmental Stock Forecast - Naive Prediction
| MEG Stock | USD 16.50 0.53 3.11% |
The Naive Prediction forecasted value of Montrose Environmental Grp on the next trading day is expected to be 13.52 with a mean absolute deviation of 1.01 and the sum of the absolute errors of 61.37. Montrose Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon. We recommend always using this module together with an analysis of Montrose Environmental's historical fundamentals, such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns.
Montrose |
Montrose Environmental Cash Forecast
Predicting cash flow or other financial metrics requires analysts to utilize a variety of statistical methods, techniques, and algorithms. These tools help uncover hidden patterns in the Montrose Environmental's financial statements, enabling forecasts of their impact on future stock prices.
Cash | First Reported 2000-12-31 | Previous Quarter 16.9 M | Current Value 13 M | Quarterly Volatility 57.7 M |
Montrose Environmental Naive Prediction Price Forecast For the 24th of December
Given 90 days horizon, the Naive Prediction forecasted value of Montrose Environmental Grp on the next trading day is expected to be 13.52 with a mean absolute deviation of 1.01, mean absolute percentage error of 1.54, and the sum of the absolute errors of 61.37.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Montrose Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Montrose Environmental's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Montrose Environmental Stock Forecast Pattern
| Backtest Montrose Environmental | Montrose Environmental Price Prediction | Buy or Sell Advice |
Montrose Environmental Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting Montrose Environmental's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Montrose Environmental's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 8.33 and 18.70, respectively. We have considered Montrose Environmental's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Naive Prediction forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Montrose Environmental stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Montrose Environmental stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 118.5438 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | None |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 1.006 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0497 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 61.3676 |
Predictive Modules for Montrose Environmental
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Montrose Environmental. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Montrose Environmental's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Other Forecasting Options for Montrose Environmental
For every potential investor in Montrose, whether a beginner or expert, Montrose Environmental's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Montrose Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Montrose. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Montrose Environmental's price trends.Montrose Environmental Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Montrose Environmental stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Montrose Environmental could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Montrose Environmental by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Montrose Environmental Technical and Predictive Analytics
The stock market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of Montrose Environmental's price movements, a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of Montrose Environmental's current price.| Cycle Indicators | ||
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Montrose Environmental Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Montrose Environmental stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Montrose Environmental shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Montrose Environmental stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Montrose Environmental Grp entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
| Accumulation Distribution | 28468.36 | |||
| Daily Balance Of Power | (0.61) | |||
| Rate Of Daily Change | 0.97 | |||
| Day Median Price | 16.51 | |||
| Day Typical Price | 16.5 | |||
| Price Action Indicator | (0.27) | |||
| Period Momentum Indicator | (0.53) |
Montrose Environmental Risk Indicators
The analysis of Montrose Environmental's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Montrose Environmental's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting montrose stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 3.86 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 5.14 | |||
| Variance | 26.39 |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Currently Active Assets on Macroaxis
When determining whether Montrose Environmental is a strong investment it is important to analyze Montrose Environmental's competitive position within its industry, examining market share, product or service uniqueness, and competitive advantages. Beyond financials and market position, potential investors should also consider broader economic conditions, industry trends, and any regulatory or geopolitical factors that may impact Montrose Environmental's future performance. For an informed investment choice regarding Montrose Stock, refer to the following important reports:Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Montrose Environmental to cross-verify your projections. You can also try the Bollinger Bands module to use Bollinger Bands indicator to analyze target price for a given investing horizon.
Is Environmental & Facilities Services space expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Montrose Environmental. If investors know Montrose will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Montrose Environmental listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Earnings Share (1.48) | Revenue Per Share 21.013 | Quarterly Revenue Growth 0.064 | Return On Assets (0.01) | Return On Equity (0.07) |
The market value of Montrose Environmental is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Montrose that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Montrose Environmental's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Montrose Environmental's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Montrose Environmental's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Montrose Environmental's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Montrose Environmental's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Montrose Environmental is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Montrose Environmental's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.