Marriott International Stock Forecast - Polynomial Regression

MAQ Stock  EUR 267.10  0.50  0.19%   
The Polynomial Regression forecasted value of Marriott International on the next trading day is expected to be 267.86 with a mean absolute deviation of 4.35 and the sum of the absolute errors of 265.42. Marriott Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon. We recommend always using this module together with an analysis of Marriott International's historical fundamentals, such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns.
  
Marriott International polinomial regression implements a single variable polynomial regression model using the daily prices as the independent variable. The coefficients of the regression for Marriott International as well as the accuracy indicators are determined from the period prices.

Marriott International Polynomial Regression Price Forecast For the 23rd of December

Given 90 days horizon, the Polynomial Regression forecasted value of Marriott International on the next trading day is expected to be 267.86 with a mean absolute deviation of 4.35, mean absolute percentage error of 31.05, and the sum of the absolute errors of 265.42.
Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Marriott Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Marriott International's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).

Marriott International Stock Forecast Pattern

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Marriott International Forecasted Value

In the context of forecasting Marriott International's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Marriott International's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 266.35 and 269.37, respectively. We have considered Marriott International's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Market Value
267.10
266.35
Downside
267.86
Expected Value
269.37
Upside

Model Predictive Factors

The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Polynomial Regression forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Marriott International stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Marriott International stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.
AICAkaike Information Criteria121.546
BiasArithmetic mean of the errors None
MADMean absolute deviation4.3511
MAPEMean absolute percentage error0.0175
SAESum of the absolute errors265.4199
A single variable polynomial regression model attempts to put a curve through the Marriott International historical price points. Mathematically, assuming the independent variable is X and the dependent variable is Y, this line can be indicated as: Y = a0 + a1*X + a2*X2 + a3*X3 + ... + am*Xm

Predictive Modules for Marriott International

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Marriott International. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimatedHigh
265.59267.10268.61
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowRealHigh
240.39304.87306.38
Details
Bollinger
Band Projection (param)
LowMiddleHigh
265.56272.92280.28
Details

Other Forecasting Options for Marriott International

For every potential investor in Marriott, whether a beginner or expert, Marriott International's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Marriott Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Marriott. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Marriott International's price trends.

Marriott International Related Equities

One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Marriott International stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Marriott International could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Marriott International by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
 Risk & Return  Correlation

Marriott International Technical and Predictive Analytics

The stock market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of Marriott International's price movements, a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of Marriott International's current price.

Marriott International Market Strength Events

Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Marriott International stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Marriott International shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Marriott International stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Marriott International entry and exit signals to maximize returns.

Marriott International Risk Indicators

The analysis of Marriott International's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Marriott International's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting marriott stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.

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Additional Information and Resources on Investing in Marriott Stock

When determining whether Marriott International is a strong investment it is important to analyze Marriott International's competitive position within its industry, examining market share, product or service uniqueness, and competitive advantages. Beyond financials and market position, potential investors should also consider broader economic conditions, industry trends, and any regulatory or geopolitical factors that may impact Marriott International's future performance. For an informed investment choice regarding Marriott Stock, refer to the following important reports:
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Marriott International to cross-verify your projections.
For more detail on how to invest in Marriott Stock please use our How to Invest in Marriott International guide.
You can also try the Equity Valuation module to check real value of public entities based on technical and fundamental data.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Marriott International's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Marriott International is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Marriott International's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.